2007年11月石油市场月报(2007)MOMR November 2007(2007)

10月份，欧佩克参考篮子价格仍不稳定，因为美元疲软激发了未来市场的基金买入，中东地缘政治加剧了市场看涨。获利回吐和对经济增长放缓的担忧为价格提供了一定的上限。石油输出国组织（OPEC）的一篮子参考价格创下每月79.36美元/桶的新高，较上月上涨5.18美元或7%。这种上升趋势持续到11月，因为美元进一步下跌鼓励了特殊购买行为，11月7日价格达到创纪录的90.71美元/桶。然而，经济担忧和较低的经济增长预期帮助缓解了市场对供应的担忧，11月14日该篮子指数跌至86.57美元。2007年世界经济增长率上调0.1个百分点至5.2%，主要是由于美国增长率上调（0.2个百分点）和中国增长率上调（0.2个百分点）。在美国，第三季度国内生产总值（GDP）3.9%的增长率（这是去年第一季度以来的最快增速）预计在未来两个季度不会达到。不断加深的房地产暴跌和持续的银行业担忧促使美联储进一步降低利率，市场普遍猜测，12月份可能会再次降息。欧元区和日本第三季度的经济增长都出人意料地强劲，尽管欧元飙升，日本的建筑业也陷入困境，但第四季度的经济增速正在放缓。中国继续以投资为主导的增长，但通胀上升是一个日益严峻的挑战。2008年，全球经济增长预测不变，为4.9%。虽然allOECD地区的预测有所下调，但非洲和拉丁美洲的上调抵消了这一点。据预测，2007年世界石油需求增长率为120万桶/日或1.4%，较上月下降10万桶/日。美国前十个月的石油消费增长预计仅为40000桶/日，同比增长0.2%，较之前的预测下降了16万桶/日。北美洲的深冬以及运输燃料的高价格似乎正在减少第四季度的区域石油消费，导致该季度石油消费量下降了10万桶/日。尽管中国上调了10%左右的成品油价格，但预计这次新涨价不会对中国石油总需求产生重大影响。2008年，世界石油需求预计将增长130万桶/日，达到平均8700万桶/日，较上月下降3万桶/日。2007年，非欧佩克成员国的供应增长比上年略有下降，达到80万桶/日。这一调整主要是由于美国、挪威、英国和巴西在第三和第四季度的下调。2008年，非欧佩克成员国的供应增长预测略有下调，目前为100万桶/日，因为2007年的一些修订已经延长到2008年，而且随着更多项目启动和产能提升数据的提供。2007年和2008年，天然气和非常规石油的增长基本保持不变，分别为0.33 mb/d和0.52 mb/d。10月份，欧佩克原油产量平均为3099万桶/日，较上月增加约27万桶/日，其中沙特阿拉伯的产量大幅增加11万桶/日，尼日利亚和伊朗的产量略有下降。在过去的两个月里，原油价格超过了产品价格，削弱了全球炼油厂的利润率，特别是低硫基准原油。目前相对疲软的产品市场情绪可能会随着我们接近取暖石油的高峰期而改变，这可能会提高产品价格和炼油厂利润率。不过，由于中间馏分油库存相对较舒适，市场预计将受到产品价格变动以外的因素推动，除非我们面临西半球的严冬或美国的另一轮计划外炼油厂停产。10月份，欧佩克的现货供应量较上月增加了7%，平均为12.74石油输出国组织（OPEC）的航行量略有下降，平均为2314万桶/日。10月份，世界各地的入境人数保持稳定，美国的入境人数下降了7万桶/日。随着冬季货物开始上市，超大型油轮市场略有好转。在中东线/东线和西线，价格上涨了3%，尽管燃油价格上涨限制了价格上涨。随着吨位需求的增加和可用性的下降，清洁油轮运价处于较好的位置。初步数据显示，受原油净进口下降的影响，经合组织9月份石油净进口总额减少了80万桶/日，而产品进口则较上月增加了19.4万桶/日。10月份，美国原油进口量下降35万桶/日，平均约960万桶/日，美国产品进口量增加34万桶/日，原因是炼油厂产量下降。10月，日本石油净进口量增加30万桶/日，原因是原油进口量增加，预计炼油厂将从预定的扭亏为盈。9月份，中国原油进口保持稳定，平均为330万桶/日，而成品油进口增长11%。由于原油进口下降，印度9月份石油净进口下降了15%，表明y-o-ydecline下降了5%。美国商业石油库存连续第三个月下降，达到10.14亿桶，较上月减少740万桶，但仍为700万桶，比五年平均水平高出1%。原油库存继续下滑，下跌900万桶，至31200万桶，为2005年9月以来的最低水平，但仍比五年平均水平高出2%。汽油推动产品库存增加170万辆，尽管汽油库存增加了380万辆，但仍低于五年平均水平。在欧盟15国和挪威，石油库存总量骤降1600万桶至112200万桶，为2005年4月以来的最低水平，但仍高于5年平均水平1100万桶，其中原油占600万桶，产品占500万桶。9月份，日本商业石油库存下降逾1600万桶，创下18个月来的新低，原油库存下降超过80%，但10月份的初步数据显示，石油库存总量已温和回升。预计2007年欧佩克原油需求量平均为3110万桶/日，比上年增加10万桶/日。2008年，对欧佩克原油的平均需求预计为3080万桶/日，下降了20万桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket price remained volatile in October, as US dollar weakness inspired fund buying in the futuresmarket with the Mideast geopolitics adding to market bullishness. Profit-taking and concern over slower economy growthprovided some cap on prices. The OPEC Reference Basket set a monthly high of $79.36/b, representing a gain of $5.18 oralmost 7% over the previous month. The upward trend continued into November as further dollar declines encouragedspeculative buying and prices reached a record high of $90.71/b on 7 November. However, economic concerns and lowerdemand growth expectations helped to ease supply fears and the Basket fell to $86.57 on 14 November. World economic growth in 2007 was revised up by 0.1 percentage points (pp) to 5.2%, mainly on upward revisions to growthin USA (+0.2 pp) and China (+0.2 pp). In the US, the 3.9% growth in third quarter GDP — the fastest pace since the firstquarter of last year — is not expected to be matched in the next two quarters. The deepening housing slump and continuedbanking concerns induced the Fed to further lower interest rates and there is widespread speculation that another cut could beseen in December. Both Euro-zone and Japanese growth in 3Q were surprisingly strong despite the soaring euro and a troubledconstruction sector in Japan, but slowdowns in Q4 are underway. China continues its investment-led growth but risinginflation is an increasing challenge. For 2008, the global growth forecast is unchanged at 4.9%. While the forecast for allOECD regions has been revised down somewhat, this is counterbalanced by upward revisions for Africa and Latin America. The world oil demand growth for 2007 is forecast at 1.2 mb/d or 1.4%, representing a downward revision of 0.1 mb/d from theprevious month. US oil consumption growth in the first ten months is estimated at just 40,000 b/d or 0.2% y-o-y, representinga downward revision of 0.16 mb/d from the previous estimate. Late winter in North America along with the high price oftransport fuel appears to be reducing regional oil consumption in the fourth quarter, leading to a downward revision of0.1 mb/d for that quarter. Although China increased product prices by around 10%, this new price hike is not expected to havea major impact on total Chinese oil demand. In 2008, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.3 mb/d to average 87.0 mb/d,representing a downward revision of 30,000 b/d from last month. Non-OPEC supply growth in 2007 has been revised down slightly to stand at 800,000 b/d over the previous year. Theadjustments were mainly due to downward revisions to the US, Norway, UK and Brazil in the third and fourth quarters. For2008, the forecast for non-OPEC supply growth was revised down slightly to now stand at 1.0 mb/d as some of the 2007revisions have been extended into 2008 and as more data on project startups and ramp-ups has become available. Growth inOPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils for 2007 and 2008 was left broadly unchanged at 0.33 mb/d and 0.52 mb/drespectively. In October, OPEC crude oil production averaged 30.99 mb/d, a rise of around 270,000 b/d from the previousmonth, as production from Saudi Arabia showed a significant increase of 110,000 b/d, with minor declines in productionfrom Nigeria and Iran. In the past two months, crude prices outstripped product prices and undermined refinery margins across the globe, especiallyfor light sweet benchmark crudes. The current relatively weak product market sentiment may change as we approach the peakdemand season for heating oil, which could lift product prices and refinery margins. However, due to relatively comfortablemiddle distillate stocks, the market is expected to be driven by factors other than product price movements, unless we face asevere winter in the Western Hemisphere or another round of unplanned refinery outages in the USA. OPEC spot fixtures increased by 7% in October from the previous month to average 12.74 mb/d, while OPEC sailingsexperienced a slight decline to average 23.14 mb/d. Arrivals remained steady around the world with US arrivals falling aminor 70,000 b/d in October. The VLCC market improved slightly as winter cargoes began to appear in the market. On theMiddle East/eastbound and westbound routes, rates increased 3% although higher bunker fuel prices capped the rise. Cleantanker freight rates were in a better position as tonnage demand increased and availability declined. Preliminary data show that OECD total net oil imports decreased 0.8 mb/d in September on the back of lower net crude oilimports, while product imports experienced a gain of 194,000 b/d from the previous month. US crude imports fell 350,000 b/din October to average around 9.6 mb/d and US product imports increased by 340,000 b/d on the back of lower refinery runs. InOctober, Japan’s net oil imports rose 300,000 b/d, driven by higher crude imports in anticipation of the emergence of refineriesfrom scheduled turnarounds. China’s crude oil imports remained steady in September to average 3.3 mb/d while productimports rose 11%. India’s net oil imports dropped 15% in September due to a fall in crude oil imports, indicating a y-o-ydecline of 5%. US commercial oil stocks dropped for the third consecutive month to hit 1,014 mb, representing a decline of 7.4 mb from theprevious month but remain 7 mb or 1% above the five-year average. Crude oil stocks continued their downward trend, falling9 mb to stand at 312 mb, the lowest level since September 2005 but still 2% above the five-year average. Product stocks rose1.7 mb, driven by gasoline which, despite a build of 3.8 mb, remained below the five-year average. In EU-15 and Norway,total oil stocks plunged 16 mb to 1,122 mb, the lowest since April 2005, but remained 11 mb above the five-year average withcrude oil accounting for 6 mb and products for 5 mb. Japan’s commercial oil stocks fell more than 16 mb in September to hitan 18-month low, with crude oil stock-draws representing more than 80% but preliminary data for October show that total oilstocks have recovered moderately. The demand for OPEC crude in 2007 is expected to average 31.1 mb/d, an increase of 0.1 mb/d over the previous year. In2008, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 30.8 mb/d, a decline of 0.2 mb/d.