2012年9月石油市场月报(2012)MOMR September 2012(2012)

受市场看涨情绪推动，8月份欧佩克参考篮子继续上行，收于109.52美元/桶。篮子组件上涨8.00-1200美元。8月份，洲际交易所布伦特期货价格也上涨了10%，收于112.68美元/桶，纽约商品交易所WTI期货价格上涨了7%，收于94.16美元/桶。投机性活动明显增加，限制了近海供应，美国原油库存下降，主要央行希望进一步放松货币政策，以及地缘政治因素所有这些都对原油价格上涨起到了推波助澜的作用。美国出人意料的积极经济数据也支撑了石油市场。由于飓风艾萨克威胁到美国海湾地区的石油业务，与天气有关的因素推高了油价。9月10日，欧佩克的一揽子计划为112.32美元/桶。2012年和2013年世界经济增长预期分别保持在3.3%和3.2%不变。据预测，美国2012年和2013年将分别增长2.3%和2.0%。日本预计将从今年的2.7%降至2013年的1.2%。欧元区在2012年收缩0.4%后，有望恢复0.1%的增长。中国2012年和2013年的经济增长预期分别为8.1%和8.0%，而印度2012年和2013年的经济增长预期分别为6.3%和6.6%。2012年世界石油需求增长预期为90万桶/日，与上一份报告持平。全球经济动荡并没有减缓石油消费季节性从夏季的趋势。世界石油需求在年上升7月，第三季度同比增长110万桶/日。7月，非OEC石油消费量为4290万桶/日，同比增长100万桶/日。2013年，世界石油需求预计将以略低于上一年的80万桶/日的速度增长。下行风险存在，因为发达国家的经济放缓可能会逐渐蔓延到非OECD。预计2012的非欧佩克供应量将增加0.7 Mb/d。美国、加拿大、巴西、俄罗斯、中国和哥伦比亚的预期增长支撑了增长，而南苏丹和苏丹、叙利亚、英国和挪威的产出预计将下降。2013年，非欧佩克石油供应预计将增长90万桶/日。预计2012年欧佩克天然气和非常规石油的平均供应量为570万桶/日，2013年为590万桶/日，分别增长40万桶/日和20万桶/日。二级消息来源显示，8月份，欧佩克原油产量为3141万桶/日，较上月增加254吨/日，8月份全球成品油市场人气保持健康，并进一步走强，由于全球多家炼油厂停产、大西洋盆地汽油需求复苏以及亚洲石化行业石脑油消费，下游供应趋紧，轻质馏分油表现出积极的表现。尽管燃料油需求疲软，轻质馏分油的积极表现仍使利润率继续上升。在油轮市场，一个普遍的负面趋势正在影响脏油轮，因为较低的吨位需求和充足的船舶供应将现货运价推低。超大型油轮和阿芙拉型油轮市场活动缓慢，而苏伊士型油轮8月份的运价达到了今年的最低水平。清洁油轮现货运价西部上升，东部下降。8月份，欧佩克维尔港的船运量几乎稳定在平均每天2400万人次，北美、欧洲和西亚的船运量有所增加，而远东的船运量则有所下降。全球和欧佩克现货供应量分别较上月减少340万桶/日和100万桶/日。美国8月份商业石油库存连续第二个月下降，减少了1330万桶。这一下降仅归因于原油库存下降了1650万桶，而产品库存上升了290万桶。尽管下跌，美国商业股仍比五年平均水平高出1720万股。日本最新的月度数据显示，7月份商业石油库存连续第五个月减少了90万桶，主要原因是产品增加了300万桶。原油库存限制了石油的生产，减少了220万桶。日本的商业库存仍比五年平均水平低280万桶。2012年对欧佩克原油的需求与之前的评估基本持平，为2990万桶/日。这意味着比上一年下降了20万桶/日。2013年对欧佩克原油的需求预计平均为2950万桶/日，与上一份报告相比也没有变化，比2012年的水平低40万桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket continued its upward movement in August to settle at $109.52/b,pushed higher by the market’s bullish sentiment. Basket components rose by $8.00-1200. ICE Brentfront-month prices also increased in August by 10% to settle at $112.68/b, while Nymex WTI rose by7% to stand at $94.16/b. The return of significantly higher speculative activity, constraints inNorth Sea supply, declines in crude oil stockpiles in the US, hopes for further monetary easing frommajor central banks, and geopolitical factors have all contributed to the increase in crude oil prices.Oil markets were also supported by unexpected positive economic data from the US. Weatherrelatedfactors pushed prices higher, as Hurricane Isaac threatened oil operations in the US Gulf. On10 September, the OPEC Basket stood at $112.32/b.Growth expectations for the world economy in 2012 and 2013 remain unchanged at 3.3% and3.2%, respectively. The US is forecast to grow by 2.3% in 2012 and 2.0% in 2013. Japan isexpected to decelerate from 2.7% this year to 1.2% in 2013. The Euro-zone is seen returning togrowth of 0.1%, following a contraction of 0.4% in 2012. Growth expectations for China stand at8.1% for 2012 and 8.0% in 2013, while India’s expansion is forecast at 6.3% in 2012 and 6.6% in2013.World oil demand growth in 2012 is forecast at 0.9 mb/d, unchanged from the previous report.Global economic turbulence has not slowed oil consumption seasonality from its summer trend.World oil demand rose in July, leading to growth of 1.1 mb/d in the third quarter y-o-y. Non-OECDconsumed 42.9 mb/d of oil in July, an increase of 1.0 mb/d y-o-y. In 2013, world oil demand isforecast to grow at a slightly lower 0.8 mb/d compared to the previous year. Downside risk exists asthe economic slowdown in the developed countries could increasingly spill over into the non-OECD.Non-OPEC supply is anticipated to increase by 0.7 mb/d in 2012. Growth is supported by expectedgains in the US, Canada, Brazil, Russia, China, and Colombia, while output from South Sudan andSudan, Syria, the UK and Norway is projected to decline. In 2013, non-OPEC oil supply is forecastto grow by 0.9 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are expected to average 5.7 mb/d in2012 and 5.9 mb/d in 2013, representing growth of 0.4 mb/d and 0.2 mb/d, respectively. In August,OPEC crude oil production stood at 31.41 mb/d, representing an increase of 254 tb/d from theprevious month, according to secondary sources.Product market sentiment remained healthy and became stronger worldwide in August, with lightdistillates exhibiting a positive performance on the back of tightening downstream supply generatedby the shutdown of several refineries worldwide and the recovery in gasoline demand in the AtlanticBasin, as well as naphtha consumption in the petrochemical sector in Asia. The positiveperformance of light distillates allowed margins to continue increasing, despite weaker fuel oildemand. In the tanker market, a general negative trend was affecting dirty tankers, as lower tonnagedemand and ample vessel supply drove spot freight rates to lower levels. The VLCC and Aframaxmarkets saw slow activities, while Suezmax freight rates in August reached the lowest level thisyear. Clean tanker spot freight rates rose in the west and declined in the east. Sailings from OPECwere almost steady in August to average 24 mb/d. Arrivals in North America, Europe and West Asiaincreased, while in the Far East arrivals declined. Both global and OPEC spot fixtures decreased inAugust from the previous month by 3.4 mb/d and 1.0 mb/d, respectively.US commercial oil inventories fell for the second consecutive month in August, declining by13.3 mb. This drop was attributed solely to crude stocks, which fell by 16.5 mb, while productinventories rose by 2.9 mb. Despite the drop, US commercial stocks remained 17.2 mb above thefive-year average. The most recent monthly data for Japan shows that commercial oil inventoriesrose by 0.9 mb in July for the fifth consecutive month, driven by an increase in products of 3.0 mb.Crude stocks limited the build, dropping by 2.2 mb. Japan’s commercial inventories remain 2.8 mbbelow the five-year average.Demand for OPEC crude for 2012 has remained virtually unchanged from the previousassessment to stand at 29.9 mb/d. This represents a decline of 0.2 mb/d from the previous year.Demand for OPEC crude in 2013 is projected to average 29.5 mb/d, also unchanged from theprevious report and 0.4 mb/d lower than the 2012 level.