2012年7月石油市场月报(2012)MOMR July 2012(2012)

石油市场亮点

今年6月，欧佩克一篮子参考原油价格连续第三个月下跌，18个月来首次收于每桶100美元，至93.98美元，跌幅非常显著，达到13%，创下2008年12月22%的跌幅以来的最高月环比跌幅。ICE布伦特和Nymex WTI也均跌至数月低点，跌幅均超过13%。纽约商品交易所（Nymex）WTI front Month6月份下跌12.31美元，在第二季度累计大幅下跌23.80美元。布伦特原油期货价格前一个月跌幅较大，6月份下跌14.36美元，第二季度下跌28.62美元。除了对经济的担忧，特别是对欧元区的担忧，推动价格下跌的主要因素是投机性多头头寸的减少和丰富的原油供应。

2012年世界经济增长预期保持在3.3%不变，2013年仅略低于3.2%。美国对2012年的预测下调至2.1%，对2013年的预测为2.0%。日本的扩张有所改善，2012年的增长率从2.0%上调至2.5%。2013年，欧元区经济增长率将回到历史平均水平1.2%的水平。欧元区正在采取的措施预计将使今年0.4%的经济收缩在2013年变成0.1%的经济扩张。在持续的刺激努力下，中国2012年的经济增长率为8.1%，预计2013年为8.0%。预计2013年印度的经济增长率也将从2012年的6.4%提高到6.6%。

各种抵消性的经济发展使得2012年世界石油需求预测为90万桶/日，与上一份报告持平。经合组织（OECD）低迷的经济正在抑制该地区的石油需求，但日本除外，该国大部分核电站的关闭导致原油和燃料油燃烧增加。据预测，2013年世界石油需求增长率为80万桶/日，这意味着增长速度较今年有所放缓。全球经济复苏的不稳定步伐正在给世界石油需求带来相当大的不确定性。非经合组织预计明年将继续为全球石油需求增长做出贡献。预计工业和运输部门对石油总需求的贡献最大。

预计2012年非欧佩克石油供应将增加70万桶/日，北美、拉丁美洲和FSU的预期增长为支撑。2013，非欧佩克石油供应量预计将增长0.9Mb/d。预计美国、加拿大、巴西、哈萨克斯坦和哥伦比亚有望成为供应增长的主要贡献者，而挪威、墨西哥和英国则经历了最大的衰退。2013年，欧佩克天然气和非常规石油的平均日产量为590万桶，比今年增加了20万桶。根据第二来源的数据，6月份，欧佩克的产量估计为3136万桶/日，比上个月下降106桶/日。

6月份，大西洋盆地的产品市场情绪转为看涨，汽油供应紧张的预期增强，同时对驾驶季节提出了额外要求。这与原油价格的下跌一起，导致大西洋盆地的利润率上升。在亚洲，由于石化部门对石脑油的需求令人失望，以及该地区供应的增加，马金斯继续受到油价高位下跌的拖累。

6月份油轮市场普遍走低。超大型油轮和苏伊士型油轮的脏船运费由于活动疲软和吨位需求下降而下降，而阿芙拉型油轮的现货运费则略有上升。与上月相比，清洁现货运价有所下降。6月份，欧佩克的出港量和到港量下降，而欧佩克的全球货运量上升了7.7%。

美国商业石油库存6月份进一步上涨，增加1080万桶，为2011年以来的最高水平。库存较上年同期增加1700万桶，较五年平均水平增加3150万桶，主要是产品增加1250万桶，原油减少170万桶。印度石油公司5月份最新月度数据显示，商业石油库存进一步增加640万桶，为一年来最高水平。赤字较上年同期的4.6%下降了0.7%，而五年平均赤字转为0.4%的盈余。库存在原油和产品之间分配，分别增加了400万桶和210万桶。

2012年对欧佩克原油的需求与此前估计的2990万桶/日几乎持平，显示出与上一年相比下降了10万桶/日。根据2013年世界石油需求和非欧佩克供应（包括欧佩克天然气和非常规石油）的初步预测，预计明年欧佩克原油需求将下降30万桶/日，平均为2960万桶/日。

Oil Market Highlights 

The OPEC Reference Basket in June continued its decline for the third consecutive month to settlebelow $100/b for the first time in 18 months at $93.98/b. The decline was very significant at 13%, thehighest month-to-month drop since the 22% fall set back in December 2008. Both ICE Brent andNymex WTI also fell to multi-months lows, shedding over 13% each. The Nymex WTI front-monthdeclined by $12.31 in June to accumulate a hefty decline of $23.80 over the second quarter. TheICE Brent front-month losses were larger, down $14.36 in June and $28.62 over the second quarter.In addition to economic concerns, especially regarding the Euro-zone, the main factors driving downprices were the decline in speculative long positions and abundant crude oil supplies. 

World economic growth expectations for 2012 remain unchanged at 3.3% and stand only slightlylower at 3.2% for 2013. The US forecast for 2012 has been revised down to stand at 2.1% and isforecast at 2.0% for 2013. Japan’s expansion improved and 2012 growth has been revised up to2.5% from 2.0%. In 2013, the growth rate will move back in line with historical averages at 1.2%.Measures being undertaken in the Euro-zone are expected to turn the contraction of 0.4% this yearback into a 0.1% expansion in 2013. With continued stimulus efforts, China’s growth for 2012remains at 8.1% and is forecast at 8.0% in 2013. India’s expansion also is forecast to improve in2013 to 6.6% from a growth level of 6.4% in 2012. 

Various offsetting economic developments have left the 2012 world oil demand forecast at0.9 mb/d, unchanged from the previous report. The sluggish OECD economy is suppressing theregion’s oil demand, except for in Japan where the shut-down of most of the country’s nuclear powerplants has led to increased crude and fuel oil burning. World oil demand growth in 2013 is forecast at0.8 mb/d, representing a slowdown in growth from the current year. The unsteady pace of the globaleconomic recovery is causing a considerable uncertainty for world oil demand. The non-OECD isexpected to continue to contribute all of the world’s oil demand growth for next year. The industrialand transport sectors are expected to contribute the most to total oil demand.

 Non-OPEC supply is forecast to increase by 0.7 mb/d in 2012, supported by the anticipated growthfrom North America, Latin America, and FSU. In 2013, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by0.9 mb/d. The US, Canada, Brazil, Kazakhstan, and Colombia are expected to be the maincontributors to supply growth, while Norway, Mexico, and the UK are seen experiencing the largestdeclines. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are seen averaging 5.9 mb/d in 2013, indicating anincrease of 0.2 mb/d over this year. In June, according to secondary sources, OPEC production isestimated at 31.36 mb/d, a decline of 106 tb/d over the previous month.

 Product market sentiment in the Atlantic Basin turned bullish in June, with gasoline strengtheningon expectations for tighter supplies amid additional requirements for the driving season. This, alongwith the drop in crude prices, caused margins to increase in the Atlantic Basin. In Asia, marginscontinued to be depressed by losses at the top of the barrel, which was due to disappointingnaphtha demand from the petrochemical sector and rising supplies in the region.

 The tanker market in June saw a generally lower trend. Dirty vessel freight rates for VLCC andSuezmax declined on the back of weak activity and lower tonnage demand, while Aframax spotfreight rates increased slightly. Clean spot freight rates decreased compared to the previous month.OPEC sailings and arrivals declined in June, while OPEC global fixtures rose by 7.7%. 

US commercial oil stocks rose further in June, increasing by 10.8 mb, the highest level sinceAugust 2011. Inventories were 17.0 mb above a year ago and 31.5 mb above the five-year average.The build was attributed mainly to products, which increased by 12.5 mb, while crude fell 1.7 mb. InJapan, the most recent monthly data for May shows commercial oil stocks rose a further 6.4 mb, thehighest level in a year. The deficit from a year ago fell 0.7% from 4.6% in the previous month, whilethe deficit with the five-year average switched to a surplus of 0.4%.The stock-build was dividedbetween crude and products, which rose 4.0 mb and 2.1 mb, respectively. 

Demand for OPEC crude in 2012 remained almost unchanged from the previous assessment at29.9 mb/d, indicating a decline of 0.1 mb/d compared to the previous year. Based on the initialforecast for world oil demand and non-OPEC supply (including OPEC NGLs and non-conventionaloil) for 2013, the demand for OPEC crude next year is projected to decline by 0.3 mb/d to average29.6 mb/d.