2006年11月石油市场月报(2006)MOMR November 2006(2006)

欧元区2006年国内生产总值（GDP）连续第二个月增长预估，在公布强劲的经济活动后进行了修正。今年欧元区的国内生产总值预计将增长2.4%。相比之下，由于房地产业和一些制造业的疲软，对美国的估计已降至3.3%。由于第三季度消费者支出停滞明显抑制了经济表现，日本的预期也下降了0.3%至2.5%。尽管由于投资支出减速，中国第三季度的经济增长率略有下降，降至10.4%，但出口继续强劲增长，2006年的国内生产总值（GDP）增长预期已提高至10.4%。对一些发展中国家，特别是拉丁美洲发展中国家的期望也有所提高。总的来说，这些修正将今年世界经济增长的预期从5%提高到了5.1%。2007年的前景并不乐观，预计所有区域的增长都会下降。在美国，随着家庭重建储蓄，住房部门的疲软可能会影响消费者支出。此外，如果劳动力成本上升和生产率增长放缓，加上在闲置产能萎缩的环境下，通胀压力上升，联邦储备可能需要维持一项限制性政策。美国国内生产总值预计明年仅增长2.6%。欧洲经济增长将受到美国经济衰退的影响；此外，国内支出预计将面临收紧货币和财政政策的阻力。预计欧元区经济增长率将降至1.6%。日本的表现可能会更好，达到1.9%，这是由于企业部门的业绩有所改善。2007年，发展中国家的经济增长率预计将下降，降至5.5%，中国也可能适度减速至9.2%。2007年世界经济的预期增长率与上月持平，为4.4%。充足的全球供应和较为平静的地缘政治趋势导致10月份油价大幅下跌。然而，由于西方国家大量涌入亚洲带来了套利机会，对低含硫原油供应的预期有助于将价差拉大。石油输出国组织（OPEC）10月份参考价格下跌7.4%或4.37美元，收于54.97美元/桶，为今年以来的最低月平均水平。11月的前两周，石油输出国组织决定印度河减产后，油价稳定下来。美国的下游问题以及尼日利亚和中东的上游问题都支撑了价格。11月14日，欧佩克的一揽子计划为55.19美元/桶。过去几周，炼油厂的维修计划与产品库存减少相结合，缓和了产品市场的悲观情绪，但未能提高欧洲和亚洲的炼油厂利润率。在大西洋盆地维护计划完成后，由于冬季天气条件和蒸馏油需求水平的不确定性，预计未来几周内，产品市场当前的疲软情绪不会发生明显变化，产品也不会占据主导地位。这种看跌观点不仅弥漫在实体市场，也可能蔓延到期货市场，这导致过去几周，取暖油期货的非商业参与者净多头头寸下降。尽管有这种看跌的观点，但大西洋盆地的一次非常长时间的寒流仍有可能支撑原油和产品价格。10月份，欧佩克的现货供应量增加了60万桶/日，达到平均1280万桶/日，这是欧佩克连续三个月下降后的首次增长，部分原因是非中东欧佩克成员国的产量增加。与一年前相比，欧佩克的现货供应量下降了180万桶/日。中东/东部和西部航线的超大型油轮市场分别疲软至平均WS85和ws77，主要原因是可用吨位充足。苏伊士型油轮板块保持强劲，西非/美国古尔弗鲁特平均价格为156 WS156，与本月五年平均价格持平。清洁油轮运价继续下跌，而从新加坡向东移动的清洁船舶的运价跌幅最大，约为33%，平均为WS221。预计2006年世界石油需求平均为8430万桶/日，比上一个月增长率基本不变，即增长100万桶/日或1.2%。美国石油需求终于开始回升，与正常的第四季度上升周期保持一致。其他经合组织国家也紧随其后，10月份石油需求增长略有增长。假设冬季气温正常，这种增加的消费预计将持续到年底。预计2006年下半年亚洲其他经济增长将更加强劲，预计这将加强石油需求增长。今年，中东石油消费保持强劲势头，创下世界石油需求第二大增长纪录。在中国，2006年下半年的石油需求超出了预期，导致石油需求上调4万桶，2006年增长57万桶/日。2007年世界石油需求预测略有增加，以反映中国石油需求的上升趋势。因此，预计明年世界石油需求将以130万桶/日或1.6%的温和增长率增长。2006年，非欧佩克国家的石油平均供应量预计为5120万桶/日，比2005年增加0.94万桶/日。9月份，非欧佩克国家的石油产量目前估计为5130万桶/日，比初步数字下降了40万桶/日。10月份的初步数据显示，非欧佩克原油供应总量约为5170万桶/日，同比变化为210万桶/日。10月份，欧佩克原油平均产量为2940万桶/日。2007年，非欧佩克国家的石油平均供应量预计为5300万桶/日，比2006年增加180万桶/日，与上月基本持平。按季度计算，预计第一、第二、第三和第四季度分别为平均5240万桶/日、5260万桶/日、5290万桶/日和5410万桶/日。俄罗斯明年的经济增长预期（19万桶/日）虽然有所下降，但结果可能仍然是乐观的。10月，欧佩克原油平均产量为2940万桶/日，较上月下降16万桶/日。2006年，经合组织原油净进口总量首次下降，至10月的平均2780万桶/日，但仍保持了3%的同比增长。美国石油净进口量骤降至1180万桶/日，此前由于库存高企、需求疲软和炼油利用率下降，美国石油净进口量下降95万桶/日。日本石油净进口量下降8.4万桶/日至420万桶/日，抵消了9月份的增幅。受强劲需求推动，9月份中国原油进口量进一步飙升50万桶/日，创下近330万桶/日的历史新高，报告称，中国储备了战略石油储备，并启动了新的炼油厂，而产品进口量则下降了约50，000桶/日至100万桶/日。同样，印度石油净进口量约为200万桶/日。10月份，美国商业库存总量与上月相比减少了2500万桶，达到10637万桶。这一损失完全是由于原油库存上升导致产品库存下降。尽管出现了亏损，但商业库存总量与去年和五年平均水平相比仍保持在令人满意的水平。在16欧元区（欧盟加挪威），商业石油库存总量小幅下降720万欧元，至113890万欧元，目前比一年前下降1.4%，但仍比五年平均水平高6.8%。由于产品库存和原油的增加，9月份日本商业原油库存总量较上月增加750万桶至19430万桶。预计2006年欧佩克原油的平均需求量为2880万桶/日。按季度计算，新的预测显示，第三季度欧佩克原油的需求量预计为2840万桶/日，第四季度为2890万桶/日。2007年，预计欧佩克原油的平均需求量为2810万桶/日，较2006年下降了70万桶/日。按季度计算，第一季度欧佩克原油的需求量预计为2930万桶/日，第二季度为2710万桶/日，第三季度为2780万桶/日，第四季度为2840万桶/日。

For the second successive month estimates of Euro-zone GDP growth for 2006 have been revised up following reports ofstronger economic activity. This year the GDP of the Euro-zone is expected to grow by 2.4%. In contrast the estimate for theUSA has been reduced to 3.3% as a result of weakness in the housing sector and some manufacturing industries. The estimatefor Japan has also been reduced by 0.3% to 2.5% as stagnant consumer spending has clearly depressed economic performancein the third quarter. Although economic growth in China fell slightly in the third quarter to 10.4% as a result of a decelerationin investment spending, exports continue to expand very strongly and the estimate for GDP growth in 2006 has been raised to10.4%. Expectations for some Developing Countries, particularly in Latin America, have also improved. On balance theserevisions have raised the estimate for world economic growth this year to 5.1% from 5%. The prospects for 2007 are not so favourable and all regions are expected to see lower growth. In the United States, theweakness in the housing sector may affect consumer spending as households rebuild savings. Moreover the FederalReserve may need to maintain a restrictive policy if rising labour costs and slower productivity growth combine to putupward pressure on inflation in a climate of shrinking spare capacity. US GDP is forecast to grow by only 2.6% nextyear. European growth will suffer from any downturn in the USA; moreover domestic spending is expected to faceheadwinds from tighter monetary and fiscal policies. Growth is forecast to fall to 1.6% in the Euro-zone. Japan mayperform better at 1.9%, sustained by the improving performance of the corporate sector. Growth in DevelopingCountries is expected to be lower in 2007, falling to 5.5% and China may also see modest deceleration to 9.2%. Theforecast growth rate for the world economy in 2007 is unchanged from last month at 4.4%. Ample global supplies and calmer geopolitical trends caused oil prices to fall sharply in October. However, theprospects of lower sour crude supply helped price differentials to firm amid opening arbitrage opportunities for westerncrudes into Asia. The OPEC Reference Basket plunged by 7.4% or $4.37 to settle at $54.97/b for October, the lowestmonthly average so far this year. In the first two weeks of November, prices stablized following the OPEC decision inDoha to cut output. Downstream problems in the USA and upstream concerns in Nigeria and the Middle East alsosupported prices. The OPEC Basket stood at $55.19/b on 14 November. A combination of the refinery maintenance schedule with product stock-draws over the last few weeks has softened thebearish sentiment of the product markets but failed to lift refinery margins in Europe and Asia. Upon completion of themaintenance schedule in the Atlantic Basin and with uncertainty about winter weather conditions as well as distillate demandlevel, the current soft sentiment of the product markets is not expected to shift significantly over the next few weeks andproducts are not expected to take the driver’s seat. This bearish view not only pervades the physical market, but can also beseen in the futures market, which has resulted in lower net-long positions of non-commercial players in the heating oil futuresover the last few weeks. Despite this bearish view, there is still a chance that a very prolonged cold snap in the Atlantic Basinmight support crude and product prices. OPEC spot fixtures increased by 0.6 mb/d to average 12.8 mb/d in October, the first increase after three months of decline,partially due to an increase in production from non-Middle East OPEC members. Compared with a year earlier, OPEC spotfixtures fell by 1.8 mb/d. VLCC market weakened on the Middle East/East and Westbound routes to average WS85 andWS77 respectively, mainly due to ample tonnage availability. The Suezmax sector remained strong with West Africa/US Gulfroute averaging WS156, in line with the five-year average for the month. Clean tanker freight rates continued to fall, whilerates for clean vessels moving from Singapore to the East experienced the largest decline at around 33% to average WS221. World oil demand for 2006 is expected to average 84.3 mb/d, representing growth of 1.0 mb/d or 1.2%, broadly unchangedfrom the last MOMR. US oil demand has finally begun to pick up, tracking the normal fourth-quarter upward cycle. OtherOECD countries are following suit with a slight increase in oil demand growth in October. Assuming normal wintertemperatures, this increased consumption is expected to continue until the end of the year. Other Asia economic growth isexpected to be stronger for the rest of 2006, which is anticipated to strengthen oil demand growth. The Middle East ismaintains its strong momentum for oil consumption to record the second-largest growth in world oil demand this year. InChina, oil demand is exceeding expectations in the second half of 2006, resulting in an upward revision of 40,000 barrels toshow a growth of 0.57 mb/d for 2006. The world oil demand forecast for 2007 has been slightly increased to reflect theupward revision in China. As a result, world oil demand growth for next year is expected to grow at a moderate rate of1.3 mb/d or 1.6%. Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to average 51.2 mb/d in 2006, representing an increase of 0.94 mb/d over 2005.September non-OPEC output is now assessed at 51.3 mb/d, down 0.4 mb/d from preliminary figures. Preliminary data forthe month of October puts total non-OPEC supply at around 51.7 mb/d, representing a y-o-y change of 2.1 mb/d. OPECcrude production averaged 29.4 mb/d in October. In 2007, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to average 53 mb/d,representing an increase of 1.8 mb/d versus 2006 and broadly unchanged from last month. On a quarterly basis, it isexpected to average 52.4 mb/d, 52.6 mb/d, 52.9 mb/d, and 54.1 mb/d in the first, second, third and fourth quarters,respectively. The growth estimate for Russia next year (0.19 mb/d), although reduced, may still turn out to be optimistic. InOctober, OPEC crude production averaged 29.4 mb/d, representing a drop of 0.16 mb/d from the previous month.OECD total net oil imports declined for the first time in 2006 to average 27.8 mb/d in October but still managed todisplay y-o-y growth of 3%. US net oil imports plunged to 11.8 mb/d, after dropping 950,000 b/d as a result of highstocks, weaker demand and the lower refining utilization rate. Japan’s net oil imports fell 84,000 b/d to 4.2 mb/d,offsetting the increase displayed in September. China’s crude oil imports surged a further 500,000 b/d to hit an all-timehigh of nearly 3.3 mb/d in September, driven by strong demand, reported stockpiling of the SPR and the start-up of anew refinery while product imports retreated by around 50,000 b/d to 1.0 mb/d. Again India’s net oil imports remainedstable at around 2.0 mb/d. US total commercial inventories witnessed a 25 mb draw in October compared to the previous month to stand at1,063.7 mb. The loss was solely due to declines in product inventories as crude oil stocks rose. Despite the loss, totalcommercial inventories remain at comfortable levels against the year-ago level and the five-year average. In the Eur-16(EU plus Norway), total commercial oil stocks edged down by 7.2 mb to 1,138.9 mb and now stand 1.4% below a yearearlier but still 6.8% higher than the five-year average. Japanese total commercial crude oil stocks experienced a buildof 7.5 mb to 194.3 mb in September from the previous month, owing to an expansion in product inventories and crudeoil. The estimated demand for OPEC crude in 2006 is expected to average 28.8 mb/d. On a quarterly basis, the new estimateshows that demand for OPEC crude is expected at 28.4 mb/d in the third quarter and 28.9 mb/d in the fourth. In 2007,the forecast demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 28.1 mb/d, representing a decline of 0.7 mb/d versus 2006.On a quarterly basis, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 29.3 mb/d in the first, 27.1 mb/d in the second, 27.8 mb/din the third and 28.4 mb/d in the fourth quarter.