2008年11月石油市场月报(2008)MOMR November 2008(2008)

10月份，欧佩克的参考篮子继续下跌。随着经济放缓削弱了石油需求增长，金融危机主导了市场情绪。在全球经济动荡之际，美国救助计划的不确定性预示着对经济衰退迫在眉睫的担忧。尽管世界各国央行都在采取措施保护金融体系，但股市仍出现了亏损，突显出经济情绪的恶化。这反映在股票市场表现出剧烈波动，主要是下跌。10月份，该篮子平均价格为69.16美元/桶，下跌27.69美元，跌幅近29%，创下有史以来最大月度跌幅，达到2007年8月的水平。11月继续呈大幅下降趋势，11月14日价格为49.09美元/桶。由于实体经济状况迅速恶化，2009年全球经济预测下调0.4个百分点至2.9%。欧元区在2008年第三季度进入技术性衰退，这是自单一货币问世以来的首次。美国经济在2008年第3季度收缩了0.3%，预计在本季度及以后可能出现负增长。美国失业率急剧上升至6.5%，仅在过去两个月，就有超过一半的百万人失业。全球各国央行纷纷调低利率，尽管货币市场有所缓和，但10月份股市信心蒸发，股价大幅下跌。对新兴市场的副作用越来越强，大宗商品价格持续下跌，越来越多的国家受到影响。现在人们的注意力转向了财政刺激措施的必要性，以减少经济衰退的深度和持续时间。华盛顿20国集团（G 20）峰会考虑了应对危机的协调措施，经向下修正后，美国2009年经济增长率预计为0.3%，欧元区经济增长率预计为0.2%，日本经济增长率预计为负0.2%。发展中国家目前预计增长4.9%，而中国2009年的增长预期目前为8.8%。油价下跌可能在一定程度上有助于第四季度的石油需求，但预计不会克服经济低迷的影响。据预测，第四季度石油需求同比仅增长40万桶/日。除运输燃料大幅下降外，石化行业的石油消费也在急剧下降。由于经合组织的石油需求下降，2008年世界石油需求修正为26万桶/日，显示出28万桶/日的小幅增长。2009年，石油需求将主要增长在中东、亚洲和中国，估计为820 tb/日，占非经合组织预测的明年石油需求增长总量的74%。预计经合组织成员国的石油需求将出现下降，这可能会在2009年使世界石油需求总量下降50万桶/日以上，相当于预期的20万桶/日。非欧佩克国家的石油供应预计在2008年平均为4970万桶/日，比上一年增加了20万桶/天，比上个月的评估下降了92结核/天。修订的主要贡献者是美国和fsu国家。2009年，非欧佩克国家的石油平均供应量预计为5040万桶/日，比去年增加了70万桶/日，较上一次评估下降了220吨/日，原因是企业为应对金融危机削减了资本支出。根据第二来源的数据，10月份，欧佩克原油产量平均为3200万桶/日，较上月下降了13万桶/日。在美国海湾飓风造成的重大暂时性停产之后，炼油厂特别是美国炼油厂完成了炼油厂维护并恢复正常运营后，产品市场情绪发生了重大变化。再加上世界经济增长进一步恶化导致的产品需求下降，对产品价格和炼油经济造成了下行压力。由于世界经济前景令人失望，以及对各种桶组分的预测较低，未来几个月内，成品油市场目前的看跌情绪可能会继续，给原油和成品油价格带来更大压力。尽管大西洋盆地的寒冷天气为原油价格提供了一定的支撑，但不足以改变看跌的市场情绪。10月份，欧佩克的现货供应量平均为1209万桶/日，比上个月增长2.4%，中东以外地区的欧佩克成员国增加了现货供应量。欧佩克的出海量再次稳定，平均为2300万桶/日。上个月，美国原油进口量与9月份相比猛增159万桶/日，美国原油进口量大幅增长15%。受整体经济前景悲观和股市大幅下跌的影响，10月份原油油轮现货运价下跌12%。10月份产品运价也较低，大西洋航线降幅最大。美国商业石油库存从9月份的低水平回升，此前在10月份因美元升值3900万美元而减少4400万美元。目前库存略低于1000兆桶，为今年第二高水平。原油库存增加1160万桶，至3120万桶，为去年4月以来的最高水平，而成品油库存则增加2700万桶。就需求而言，美国商业石油库存对五年平均水平以外的所有主要组成部分都非常满意。在欧盟15国加上挪威，石油总库存又增加了170万桶，接近11200万桶，相当于五年平均水平。在日本，9月份商业石油库存连续第三个月增加近800万桶，接近2亿桶，创下一年多来的最高水平。预计2008年欧佩克原油需求平均为3180万桶/日，比上年减少430吨/日。2009年，对欧佩克原油的平均需求预计为3090万桶/日，下降910吨/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket continued to fall in October. The financial crisis dominated market sentiment as theeconomic slowdown dented petroleum demand growth. Uncertainty about bailout plans in the US while the turmoilspread worldwide signaled fears of a looming recession. Losses on the equity market, despite a move by central banksaround the world to safeguard the financial system, highlighted the deteriorating economic sentiment. This was reflectedin the equity markets which exhibited sharp volatility, mostly on the downside. In October, the Basket averaged $69.16/bfor a drop of $27.69 or nearly 29%, the largest monthly drop ever recorded, to a level last seen in August 2007. The sharpdownward trend continued in November, with the price at $49.09/b on 14 November. The forecast for the global economy in 2009 has been revised down 0.4 pp to 2.9% due to the rapidly worseningconditions in the real economy. The Euro-zone entered into technical recession in 3Q08 for the first time since theintroduction of the single currency. The US economy contracted by 0.3% in 3Q08 and is expected to exhibit negativegrowth in the current quarter and possibly beyond. Unemployment in the US rose sharply to 6.5% with more than half amillion jobs shed in the last two months alone. Central banks across the globe have moved to lower interest rates.Although money markets have eased, confidence in equity markets in October evaporated and share prices fell sharply. Asspillover effects to emerging markets become stronger and commodity prices continue to fall, more countries are beingaffected. Attention is now turning to the need for fiscal stimulus measures to lessen the depth and reduce the duration ofthe economic turndown. Coordinated measures to address the crisis were considered in the Washington G-20 Summit.Following downward revisions, US growth in 2009 is now forecast at 0.3%, Euro-zone growth at 0.2% and Japanesegrowth is expected to turn negative at minus 0.2%. Developing Countries are now expected to grow at 4.9% while China’sgrowth forecast now stands at 8.8% in 2009. The fall in prices might help fourth-quarter oil demand to some degree but is not anticipated to overcome the affects of theeconomic downturn. Fourth-quarter oil demand is forecast to show growth of only 0.4 mb/d y-o-y. In addition to thestrong decline in transport fuel, oil consumption in the petrochemical industry is also falling sharply. Due to the drop in oildemand in the OECD, world oil demand in 2008 was revised down by 0.26 mb/d to show minor growth of 0.28 mb/d. In2009, oil demand will increase mainly in the Middle East, Asia, and China which is estimated at 820 tb/d or 74% of thetotal Non-OECD forecast oil demand growth next year. OECD countries are expected to experience a decline in oildemand which is likely to pull total world oil demand growth down by more than 0.5 mb/d in 2009, representing arevision of 0.2 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to average 49.7 mb/d in 2008, representing an increase of 0.2 mb/d over the previousyear and a downward revision of 92 tb/d from last month’s assessment. Main contributors to the revision are the USA andFSU countries. In 2009, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to average 50.4 mb/d, representing an increase of 0.7 mb/dversus the current year and a downward revision of 220 tb/d from the last assessment as companies have cut capitalexpenditures in response to the financial crisis. In October, OPEC crude production averaged 32.0 mb/d according tosecondary sources, representing a drop of 0.13 mb/d from the previous month. Upon completion of refinery maintenance and resumption of normal operation by refineries, particularly in the US, aftermajor temporarily shutdown at the hurricanes in the US Gulf, product market sentiment changed significantly. Thiscombined with falling product demand due to further deterioration in world economic growth has exerted downwardpressure on product prices and refining economics. Due to the disappointing outlook for world economy and lowerdemand projections for various barrel components, the current bearish sentiment of the product markets may continue inthe coming months, putting more pressure on both crude and product prices. While the cold weather in the Atlantic Basinmay provide some support for crude prices, it would not be enough to switch the bearish market sentiment. OPEC spot fixtures averaged 12.09 mb/d in October, 2.4% higher than in the previous month, supported by higher OPECfixtures outside the Middle East. OPEC sailings were once again steady, averaging 23.0 mb/d. Arrivals in the USincreased by a substantial 15% last month in line with the sharp 1.59 mb/d surge in US crude imports compared toSeptember. Spot freight rates for crude oil tankers declined by 12% in October impacted by the overall pessimisticeconomic outlook and the steep falling of the equity markets. Product freight rates were also lower in October with thetrans-Atlantic route showing the largest drop. US commercial oil inventories recovered from the low levels seen in September after having lost 44 mb on the back ofhurricanes to increase by 39 mb in October. Inventories now stand slightly below 1,000 mb, the second-highest level sofar this year. Crude oil stocks rose 11.6 mb to hit 312 mb, the highest level since last April, while product inventoriesjumped 27 mb. In terms of demand, US commercial oil inventories are very comfortable with all the main componentsabove the five-year average. In EU-15 plus Norway, total oil inventories increased a further 1.7 mb to approach 1,120 mb,which corresponds to the five-year average. In Japan, commercial oil stocks rose in September for the third consecutivemonth adding almost 8 mb to approach 200 mb, the highest level in more than a year. The demand for OPEC crude in 2008 is expected to average 31.8 mb/d, a decline of 430 tb/d from the previous year. In2009, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 30.9 mb/d, a drop of 910 tb/d.