2014年10月石油市场月报(2014)MOMR October 2014(2014)

原油价格变动9月份，由于需求疲软和供应充足继续对石油市场构成压力，欧佩克参考篮子下跌4.77美元，至95.98美元/桶。纽约商品交易所（Nymex）的WTI指数在9月份下跌了3.04美元/桶，至93.03美元/桶，而ICE布伦特指数下跌了4.83美元，至98.57美元/桶。ICE布伦特原油的推测净长度比2014年6月的峰值下降了近85%。布伦特-WTI价差收窄至5.54美元/桶，为2013年7月以来的最低水平。2014年和2015年世界经济增长预期分别保持在3.2%和3.6%不变，此前对2011年购买力平价进行了重新计算。经合组织（OECD）2014年和2015年分别增长1.8%和2.1%，美国经济继续加速增长，而欧元区和日本经济增长依然乏力。2014年和明年，中国经济增长率分别为7.4%和7.2%。印度今年和2015年的增长率分别为5.5%和5.8%。2014年全球石油需求增长预计将达到105万桶/日左右，与上一份报告没有变化。中国、巴西和沙特阿拉伯的积极表现支撑了今年的增长，抵消了一些OECD地区低于预期的增长。根据上个月的预测，2015年世界石油需求预计将增长119万桶/日。根据上一份报告，2014年欧佩克石油供应预计将增长168万桶/日。经济增长主要来自美国、巴西和加拿大，而墨西哥、印度尼西亚和英国预计将出现下降。预计2015年非欧佩克石油供应将增加124万桶/日。2015年，欧佩克天然气产量增长了20万桶/日，平均为603万桶/日。9月份，欧佩克原油产量平均为3047万桶/日，与上月相比增长了402吨/日。产品市场和炼油业务由于几次装置停产而收紧的汽油市场支持了利差的扩大。这部分抵消了利差中间馏分油需求减弱，使得大西洋盆地的利润率继续上升。在亚洲，强劲的汽油和燃料油需求，加上原油价格下跌，使得该地区的利润率得以回升。油轮市场脏油现货油轮市场在9月份继续承压。由于吨位需求仍然有限，而可用性继续出现盈余，不同航段的油轮显示出较低的运费。受苏伊士以西市场活跃度的推动，9月份清洁油轮运价有所提高。8月份，商业石油库存增加约900万桶，达到267900万桶。在这个水平上，库存仍比五年平均水平低5700万桶。原油顺差为120万桶，而成品油库存仍低于5年平均水平6900万桶。就远期覆盖天数而言，8月份经合组织商业股较上月小幅上涨0.1天，至57.9天。2014年欧佩克原油供需平衡与上一次报告的2950万桶/日持平。2015年，欧佩克原油需求平均为2920万桶/日，与上一次预期一致。

Crude Oil Price MovementsThe OPEC Reference Basket fell $4.77 to stand at $95.98/b in September, as sluggishdemand and ample supply continue to weight on the oil market. Nymex WTI slipped$3.04/b to $93.03/b in September, while ICE Brent dropped $4.83 to $98.57/b. Speculativenet length in ICE Brent was down almost 85% from the peak seen in June 2014. TheBrent-WTI spread narrowed to $5.54/b, the lowest since July 2013.World EconomyExpectations for world economic growth in 2014 and 2015 remain unchanged at 3.2% and3.6% respectively, following a re-basing on 2011 purchase power parity. The OECD isseen growing at 1.8% in 2014 and 2.1% in 2015, with the US experiencing a continuedacceleration, while growth in the Euro-zone and Japan remains sluggish. China’s figuresremain unchanged at 7.4% in 2014 and 7.2% next year. Growth in India is also unchangedat 5.5% this year and 5.8% in 2015.World Oil DemandGlobal oil demand growth in 2014 is anticipated to reach around 1.05 mb/d, unchangedfrom the previous report. Growth this year has been supported by positive performance ofChina, Brazil and Saudi Arabia, offsetting lower-than-expected growth in some OECDregions. In 2015, world oil demand is forecast to rise by 1.19 mb/d, in line with last month’sforecast.World Oil SupplyNon-OPEC oil supply growth in 2014 is forecast at 1.68 mb/d, in line with the previousreport. Growth was seen coming mainly from the US, Brazil and Canada, while Mexico,Indonesia and the UK are expected to see a decline. Non-OPEC supply is expected toincrease by 1.24 mb/d in 2015. OPEC NGLs is seen growing by 0.2 mb/d in 2015 toaverage 6.03 mb/d. In September, OPEC crude production averaged 30.47 mb/daccording to secondary sources, an increase of 402 tb/d from the previous month.Product Markets and Refining OperationsA tightening gasoline market due to several unit outages lent support to crack spreads.This partially offset weaker middle distillates demand, allowing margins to continue theupward trend in the Atlantic Basin. In Asia, strong gasoline and fuel oil demand, along withfalling crude prices, allowed margins in the region to recover.Tanker MarketThe dirty spot tanker market continued to be under pressure in September. Tankers indifferent segments showed lower freight rates as tonnage demand remained limited, whileavailability continued to see a surplus. Clean tanker freight rates improved in Septemberdriven by high market activity west of Suez.Stock MovementsOECD commercial oil stocks rose by around 9.0 mb in August to stand at 2,679 mb. At thislevel, inventories were still 57.0 mb below the five-year average. Crude saw a surplus of12.0 mb, while product stocks remained 69 mb below the five-year average. In terms ofdays of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks edged 0.1 day higher in August over theprevious month to stand at 57.9 days.Balance of Supply and DemandDemand for OPEC crude in 2014 remains unchanged from the previous report at29.5 mb/d. In 2015, demand for OPEC crude is seen averaging 29.2 mb/d, in line withthe previous expectations.