2017年5月石油市场月报(2017)MOMR May 2017(2017)

原油价格变动4月份，欧佩克基准一揽子原油价格上涨2.0%，至平均51.34美元/桶。原油期货价格在欧佩克和非欧佩克自愿调整产量和延长至年底的预期高度一致的情况下回升；然而，石油产量回升，特别是美国的石油产量回升，限制了上涨潜力。ICE布伦特原油期货价格上涨2.4%，至53.82美元/桶，NYMEX WTI上涨2.9%，至51.12美元/桶。布伦特WTI价差小幅收窄，至2.70美元/桶，但仍为美国原油出口打开套利通道。Moneymanager的净多头头寸从3月底到4月中旬上升了30%，但在4月最后一周下降了创纪录的最大周跌幅之一。世界经济对2017年全球经济增长的预测仍为3.3%，与2016年3.0%的增长率相比，全球经济的增长动力已得到确认，但美国除外，预计美国经济仍将在今年剩余时间内反弹。虽然美国经济增长率仍保持在2.2%，但欧元区2017年的增长率从1.6%修正为1.7%。日本2017年的增长预测仍为1.2%。中国2017年经济增长率也从6.3%上调至6.5%，而印度的预测仍为7.0%。俄罗斯和巴西的2017年增长预测保持不变，分别为1.2%和0.5%。2016年世界石油需求量经修正后增加了65 tb/d，以反映最新数据。2016年世界石油需求总量增长为144万桶/日，平均为9512万桶/日。2017年，预计石油需求总量增长约为127万桶/日，与上一份报告持平，预计石油需求总量为9638万桶/日。非经合组织将继续以104万桶/日的速度增长，而经合组织继续增长，尽管世界石油需求增速下降至23万桶/日2016年欧佩克石油供应量略有下降，原因是俄罗斯石油供应量在2016年第4季度出现下降调整，目前显示出收缩0.71百万桶/天，平均为5730百万桶/天。2017年的预测值经调整后上升了0.37百万桶/天，显示出增长0.95百万桶/天，随后所有季度（主要是美国）均向上调整，平均为5830百万桶/天。修正的动力来自2月份的实际生产数据，以及阿希格对今年剩余时间的预期。2007年，欧佩克天然气和非常规石油产量平均为622万桶/日，较上年同期增加了40吨/日，增幅为17万桶/日。根据第二来源的数据，4月份，欧佩克的产量平均为3173万桶/日，减少了18吨/日。4月份，大西洋盆地的产品市场和炼油业务产品市场在以下因素的支持下有所增强：在出口机会增加的情况下，国内需求增加。资金流入减少和炼油厂的大量维修也导致市场趋紧。主要的支撑来自汽油，美国国内需求在4月份从第一季度的低迷中恢复过来，当时正值夏季，对拉丁美洲的出口也有所增加，亚洲利润率在该地区需求旺盛的情况下继续保持健康。尽管超大型油轮市场强劲，但油轮市场平均油轮现货运价比上个月下降了0.4%。由于市场活动增强和吨位供应趋紧，VLCC现货运价有所改善，平均上涨20%。然而，受苏伊士型油轮和阿芙拉型油轮运价回落的推动，平均脏现货运价下降，截至本月底分别下降了8%和10%，这两类油轮的巨大需求受到限制，而吨位供过于求占主导地位。3月份，经合组织商业石油库存下降至3013MB。在这一水平上，经合组织的商业石油库存比最近五年的平均水平高出2.76亿桶。原油和成品油库存分别比季节性正常水平高出约187MB和89MB。就远期覆盖率而言，OEC商业库存为64.8天，比最近五年的平均水平高出约4.8天。2016年欧佩克原油供需平衡为3180万桶/日，比上一年高出200万桶/日。2017年，欧佩克原油需求预计为3190万桶/日，比去年增加约20万桶/日。

Crude Oil Price MovementsThe OPEC Reference Basket rose 2.0% in April to average $51.34/b. Crude oil futures recovered on the highconformity by OPEC and non-OPEC with voluntary production adjustments, and expectations for anextension to year-end; however, upward potential was seen as limited by a resurgence in oil output,particularly in the US. ICE Brent increased 2.4% to $53.82/b and NYMEX WTI rose 2.9% to $51.12/b. TheBrent-WTI spread narrowed slightly to $2.70/b, but still kept the arbitrage open for US crude exports. Moneymanager net long positions rose 30% from end of March until the middle of April, but dropped by the one oflargest weekly falls on record in the last week of April.World EconomyThe forecast for global economic growth remains at 3.3% in 2017, compared to growth in 2016 of 3.0%.Therecent growth dynamic in the global economy has been confirmed with the exception of the US, which is stillexpected to rebound in the remainder of the year. While US growth remains at 2.2%, Euro-zone growth in2017 was revised to 1.7% from 1.6%. Japan’s 2017 growth forecast remains at 1.2%. China’s 2017 growthwas also revised higher to 6.5% from 6.3%, while India’s forecast remains at 7.0%. Russia’s and Brazil’s2017 growth forecasts remain unchanged at 1.2% and 0.5%, respectively.World Oil DemandWorld oil demand in 2016 was revised higher by 65 tb/d to reflect the most recent data. Total world oildemand growth for 2016 stood at 1.44 mb/d to average 95.12 mb/d. For 2017, oil demand growth isanticipated to be around 1.27 mb/d unchanged from the previous report with total oil demand expected at96.38 mb/d. Non-OECD will continue to lead growth at 1.04 mb/d, while OECD continues to grow albeit at areduced pace of 0.23 mb/d.World Oil SupplyNon-OPEC oil supply in 2016 was revised marginally lower due to a downward adjustment in Russian oilsupply in 4Q16 to now show a contraction of 0.71 mb/d to average 57.3 mb/d. The forecast for 2017 wasrevised up by 0.37 mb/d to show growth of 0.95 mb/d, following upward adjustments in all quarters, mostly inthe US, to average 58.3 mb/d. The revisions were driven by actual production data for February, as well ashigher expectations for the remainder of the year. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oil production in 2017was revised up by 40 tb/d to average 6.22 mb/d, representing growth of 0.17 mb/d. In April,OPEC production decreased by 18 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 31.73 mb/d.Product Markets and Refining OperationsProduct markets strengthened in April in the Atlantic basin, supported by stronger domestic demand amidhigher export opportunities. Lower inflows and heavy refinery maintenance also resulted in a tighter market.The main support came from the gasoline, with US domestic demand recovering in April from the slumpsuffered during the first quarter amid the shift to summer grades and higher exports to Latin America.Meanwhile, Asia margins continued healthy on the back of firm regional demand at a time of peakmaintenance in the region.Tanker MarketAverage tanker spot freight rates fell 0.4% from the month before, despite a stronger VLCC market. VLCCspot freight rates improved, rising by 20% on average, as a result of enhanced activity in the market and atightening in tonnage supply. Nevertheless, the decline in average dirty spot freight rates was driven by thedrop in Suezmax and Aframax freight rates, which ended the month down 8% and 10%, respectively, astonnage demand for both classes was limited, while tonnage oversupply was dominant.Stock MovementsTotal OECD commercial oil stocks fell in March to stand at 3,013 mb. At this level, OECD commercial oilstocks are 276 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products stocks indicated a surplus ofaround 187 mb and 89 mb above the seasonal norm, respectively. In terms of forward cover, OECDcommercial stocks stood at 64.8 days, some 4.8 days higher than the latest five-year average.Balance of Supply and DemandDemand for OPEC crude in 2016 now stands at 31.8 mb/d, which is 2.0 mb/d higher than in the previousyear. In 2017, demand for OPEC crude is projected at 31.9 mb/d, around 0.2 mb/d higher than last year.