2017年6月石油市场月报(2017)MOMR June 2017(2017)

原油价格变动

石油输出国组织（OPEC）5月份参考原油价格下跌4.2%，至平均49.20美元/桶。原油期货价格下跌，原因是供应继续充足，美国今年的产量继续保持上升趋势，尽管OPEC和非OPEC进行了产量调整。ICE布伦特原油期货价格下跌4.5%，至51.40美元/桶，纽约商品交易所WTI原油期货价格下跌5%，至48.54美元/桶。布伦特原油期货价格价差扩大至2.86美元/桶，进一步支持美国出口。货币管理公司减少了对两个交易所油价上涨的押注，将期货和期权的净持仓总量削减至2016年11月的水平。

世界经济

自年初以来，全球经济增长势头强于预期，继2016年增长3.1%后，2017年全球经济增长预测已修正至3.4%。除了美国和印度可能出现的暂时性下跌外，全球经济最近的增长势头已经得到证实。美国2017年的增长率仍为2.2%，欧元区为1.7%，而日本的增长预测被修正为1.4%。2017年，中国和印度的预测分别保持在6.5%和7.0%不变。同样，对俄罗斯和巴西的预测也与之前的报告保持一致，分别为1.2%和0.5%。

世界石油需求

2016年世界石油需求预计将增长144万桶/日，与上一份报告一致，平均为9512万桶/日。2017年预计石油需求增长也保持不变，为127万桶/日，平均为9638万桶/日。根据上一份报告，经合组织的消费量预计在2017年增长23万桶/日，随后经合组织美洲和亚洲进行了抵消性修订太平洋。中国和印度的石油需求增长预测也保持不变，分别为34万桶/日和12万桶/日。

世界石油供应

据估计，2016年，非欧佩克国家的石油供应量平均为5730万桶/日，收缩了71万桶/日，与上一份报告持平。2017年，非欧佩克国家的石油供应量预计将增长84万桶/日，此前欧佩克和非欧佩克国家决定将产量调整延长9个月，抵消了加拿大和英国的增长，俄罗斯、文莱、苏丹斯和哈萨克斯坦的产量下降11万桶/日，达到平均5814万桶/日。由于2017年第一季度产量低于预期，美国2017年石油供应增长也下调了30 tb/d。据二级消息来源预测，2017年欧佩克天然气产量和非常规液体产量将增长17万桶/日，达到平均622万桶/日。2017年5月，欧佩克原油产量增长336 tb/d，达到平均3214万桶/日。

产品市场和炼油业务

大西洋盆地的炼油厂利润率在5月份有所下降，尽管美国的汽油缺口扩大，国内需求增加。这是由于石油桶中间的疲软，因为相对较高的油田和炼油厂利用率的增加超过了汽油需求的改善。与此同时，在亚洲，由于供应压力的影响，在维修旺季过后，利润率有所下降，而对该地区的影响越来越大。

油轮市场

5月份油轮市场人气减弱，脏舱和清洁舱的现货运价较上月大幅下降。运价下降的原因是轻吨位需求和高船舶可用性。阿芙拉型油轮的运价是个例外，由于几个目的地的高吨位需求，加上港口延误和更换，平均现货运价有所提高。清洁油轮运价平均下降，主要是由于苏伊士以西市场疲软。

股票变动

经合组织（OECD）4月份商业石油库存总量下降至30.05亿桶。在这个水平上，经合组织的商业石油库存比最近五年的平均水平高出25100万桶。原油和成品油库存分别高于季节性正常水平约171MB和80MB。就远期覆盖天数而言，经合组织商业股为64.1天，比最近五年的平均水平高出约4.1天。

供需平衡

2016年，欧佩克原油需求量为3180万桶/日，比2015年高出约200万桶/日。2017年，欧佩克原油需求量预计为3200万桶/日，比上年增加约30万桶/日

Crude Oil Price Movements 

The OPEC Reference Basket fell 4.2% in May to average $49.20/b. Crude futures prices tumbled as supplycontinue to be plentiful with US output continuing its upward trend this year and despite OPEC andnon-OPEC production adjustments. ICE Brent ended 4.5% lower at $51.40/b, while NYMEX WTI dropped5% to $48.54/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to $2.86/b, further supporting US exports. Money managersdecreased bets on higher oil prices in both exchanges, trimming combined net length positions in futures andoptions to November 2016 levels. 

World Economy 

After stronger-than-anticipated growth momentum since the beginning of the year, the forecast for globaleconomic growth has been revised up to 3.4% in 2017, following growth of 3.1% in 2016. The recent growthdynamic in the global economy has been confirmed with the exception of potentially temporary dips in theUS and India. US growth in 2017 remains at 2.2% and the Euro-zone at 1.7%, while Japan’s growth forecastwas revised up to 1.4%. The forecasts for China and India remain unchanged at 6.5% and 7.0%,respectively, in 2017. Similarly, the forecasts for Russia and Brazil also remain in line with the previousreport at 1.2% and 0.5%, respectively. 

World Oil Demand 

World oil demand in 2016 is expected to grow by 1.44 mb/d in line with the previous report to average95.12 mb/d. Projected oil demand growth for 2017 was also unchanged at 1.27 mb/d to average 96.38 mb/d.OECD consumption is seen growing by 0.23 mb/d in 2017, in line with the previous report, followingoffsetting revisions in OECD Americas and Asia Pacific. The forecast for oil demand growth in China andIndia have also been left unchanged at 0.34 mb/d and 0.12 mb/d, respectively. 

World Oil Supply 

Non-OPEC oil supply is estimated to have averaged 57.30 mb/d in 2016, a contraction of 0.71 mb/d andunchanged from the previous report. In 2017, non-OPEC oil supply is projected to grow by 0.84 mb/d,following a downward revision of 0.11 mb/d to average 58.14 mb/d. Lower output from Russia, as well asBrunei, the Sudans and Kazakhstan following the OPEC and non-OPEC decision to extend productionadjustments for nine months offset higher growth in Canada and the UK. US oil supply growth for 2017 wasalso revised down by 30 tb/d due to lower output than expected in 1Q17. OPEC NGLs production andnon-conventional liquids forecast to grow by 0.17 mb/d in 2017 to average 6.22 mb/d. In May 2017,OPEC crude oil production increased by 336 tb/d to average 32.14 mb/d, according to secondary sources. 

Product Markets and Refining Operations 

Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin fell in May, despite the strength seen in US gasoline crack spreadsamid higher domestic demand. This was due to weakness in the middle of the barrel as relatively higheryields and increased refinery utilisation outweighed the improvement in gasoil demand. Meanwhile in Asia,margins weakened on supply pressure following the peak of the maintenance season amid increasinginflows to the region. 

Tanker Market 

Tanker market sentiment weakened in May as spot freight rates in both dirty and clean segments mostlydropped from the previous month. The decline in freight rates was driven by light tonnage demand and highvessels availability. Aframax rates were the exception, with average spot freight rates improving due to hightonnage demand for several destinations combined with port delays and replacements. Clean tanker freightrates declined on average, mainly due to a weak market West of Suez. 

Stock Movements 

Total OECD commercial oil stocks fell in April to stand at 3,005 mb. At this level, OECD commercial oilstocks were 251 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products stocks stood at a surplus abovethe seasonal norm of around 171 mb and 80 mb, respectively. In terms of days of forward cover,OECD commercial stocks stood at 64.1 days, some 4.1 days higher than the latest five-year average. 

Balance of Supply and Demand 

Demand for OPEC crude stood at 31.8 mb/d in 2016, some 2.0 mb/d higher than in 2015. In 2017, thedemand for OPEC crude is projected at 32.0 mb/d, around 0.3 mb/d higher than the previous year