2010年10月石油市场月报(2010)MOMR October 2010(2010)

石油输出国组织（OPEC）的参考价格篮子在9月份又增加了48个，达到平均74.63美元/桶，为4月份以来的最高水平。期货市场呈现出混合格局。纽约商品交易所（Nymex）WTI前月均价为75.55美元/桶，较8月下跌1.12美元，而ICE布伦特原油连续第二个月上涨，上涨1.30美元至78.42美元/桶。10月初，宏观经济数据改善和美元走软支撑了市场，推动欧佩克原油篮子自5月初以来首次突破81美元/桶。10月11日，布伦特原油价格达到80.44美元/桶。世界经济继续以低于平均水平的速度增长。全球经济增长预测2010年和2011年分别为3.9%和3.6%。美国预测2010年和2011年分别为2.6%和2.3%，与之前的报告一致。日本2010年的预测上调了0.3个百分点，至2.8%，但2011年仍保持在1.3%不变。欧元区预计2010年和2011年分别增长1.2%和1.0%，与上月持平。中国和印度有望继续增长。到目前为止，中国在经济降温方面取得了成功，2010年和2011年的经济增长预期分别为9.5%和8.6%。预计印度2010年和2011年将分别增长8.2%和7.7%。2010年世界石油需求增长率目前为110万桶/日，此前的报告上调了10万桶/日，受今年上半年强于预期、刺激拉动型经济增长的推动。尽管出现了一些动荡和挫折，但全球经济复苏继续为石油消费提供支持。尽管第三季度的石油需求受到夏季温暖天气和驾驶季节的支撑，但预计不会像前两个季度那样强劲。工业活动的复苏对全球工业燃料需求产生了积极影响。2011年，全球石油需求预计将增长100万桶/日，与上个月持平，预计下半年需求增长将更强劲。2010年，非欧佩克国家石油供应预计将增长100万桶/日，此前一个月石油供应量将上调10万桶/日，主要原因是来自加拿大、墨西哥和中国的供应高于预期。2011年，在巴西、加拿大、阿塞拜疆和哈萨克斯坦的预期增长的支持下，非欧佩克国家的石油供应预计将增长360 tb/d。预计2011年欧佩克天然气和非常规石油产量将增长50万桶/日，今年增长40万桶/日。根据第二来源，9月份，欧佩克原油总产量平均为2908万桶/日，比上个月略有下降30吨/日。冬季来临前，全球范围内强劲的馏出油需求为产品市场提供了一定的支撑，尽管这部分被疲弱的汽油需求和亚洲燃料油市场供过于求。炼油厂维修期间轻质馏分油的高库存，加上燃料油供应过剩，将使产品市场人气持续看跌，并在未来几个月继续打压炼油厂利润率。9月份，油轮市场上所有航线的运价都在下降。高吨可用性加上季节性的石油需求下降，导致运费下降。在原油货运市场，超大型油轮即期运价下跌8.7%，苏伊士型油轮即期运价下跌18.8%，弗拉马克斯型油轮即期运价下跌13.7%。苏伊士以东的现货价格下跌了9.4%，而苏伊士以西的航线价格下跌了12.1%。美国商业股扭转了过去5个月的上涨趋势，在9月份下跌了440万股。然而，与五年平均水平相比，顺差仍然非常高，达到1.18亿英镑。其中大部分来自于下跌370万英镑的产品，而原油库存则小幅下跌80万英镑。8月份最新的月度数据显示，印度石油商业库存下降670万桶，比季节性正常水平低1100万桶左右。初步迹象显示，截至9月底，日本商业石油库存总量进一步下降了100万桶。2010年，欧佩克原油的需求量估计为2860万桶/日，比上一份报告的需求量低约10万桶/日。这意味着，与2009年欧佩克原油需求相比，日产量下降了30万桶。2011年，对欧佩克原油的平均需求预计为2880万桶/日，与之前的评估持平，比上一年增加约20万桶/日。

 The OPEC Reference Basket increased a further 48 in September to average $74.63/b, thehighest since April. The futures market saw mixed patterns. Nymex WTI front month averaged$75.55/b, down $1.12 from August, while ICE Brent rose for the second month in a row, gaining$1.30 to $78.42/b. In early October, improvement in macroeconomic data and the weaker dollarsupported the market, pushing the OPEC Basket above $81/b for the first time since early May. WTIrecovered to move beyond $83/b and ICE Brent reached more than $85/b. On 11 October, theBasket stood at $80.44/b. The world economy continues to expand at below-average levels. The global growth forecastsremain unchanged at 3.9% for 2010 and 3.6% for 2011. The US forecast stands at 2.6% in 2010and 2.3% in 2011, in line with the previous report. Japan’s forecast was revised up 0.3 points to2.8% in 2010, but remained unchanged at 1.3% in 2011. The Euro-zone is forecast to grow at 1.2%in 2010 and 1.0% in 2011, unchanged from the previous month. China and India are expected tocontinue their growth. So far, China has been successful in cooling down its economy with growthexpectations at 9.5% in 2010 and 8.6% in 2011. India is forecast to grow by 8.2% in 2010 and 7.7%in 2011. World oil demand growth in 2010 now stands at 1.1 mb/d, following an upward revision of 0.1 mb/dfrom the previous report, driven by the stronger-than-expected, stimulus-led economic growth in thefirst half of the year. Despite some turbulence and setbacks, the global economic recovery continuesto provide support for oil consumption. While oil demand in the third quarter has been supported bywarm summer weather along with the driving season, however, it is not expected to be as strong asin the previous two quarters. The recovery in industrial activities has positively affected industrial fueldemand across the globe. In 2011, global oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.0 mb/d, unchangedfrom the last month, with demand growth anticipated to be stronger in the second half of the year. Non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to increase by 1.0 mb/d in 2010, following an upward revisionof 0.1 mb/d from the previous month, mainly due to higher-than-expected supply from Canada,Mexico and China. In 2011, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow 360 tb/d, supported byanticipated growth in Brazil, Canada, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan. OPEC NGLs and nonconventionaloils are forecast to increase by 0.5 mb/d in 2011, following growth of 0.4 mb/d thisyear. In September, total OPEC crude oil production averaged 29.08 mb/d according tosecondary sources, representing a slight decline of 30 tb/d over the previous month. Strong distillate demand across the globe ahead of the winter season has provided some support forproduct markets, although this has been partially offset by weak gasoline demand and oversupplyin the Asian fuel oil market. High stocks for light distillates amid refinery maintenance, combined withthe oversupply in fuel oil, will keep product market sentiment bearish and continue to weigh onrefinery margins over the coming months. The tanker market has experienced declining rates on all routes in September. High tonnageavailability combined with seasonally lower oil demand has resulted in reduced freight rates. In thecrude freight market, VLCC spot rates declined 8.7%, Suezmax rates decreased 18.8% andAframax freight rates fell by 13.7% m-o-m. Product spot freights also saw a negative performance inSeptember. East of Suez spot rates slumped by 9.4%, while West of Suez routes declined 12.1%. US commercial stocks reversed the upward trend seen over the last five months to decline by4.4 mb in September. However, the surplus with the five-year average remained very high at118 mb. The bulk of this draw came from products which fell by 3.7 mb, while crude stocks droppedslightly by 0.8 mb. The most recent monthly data for August shows that commercial oil stocks inJapan fell by 6.7 mb to stand around 11 mb below the seasonal norm. Preliminary indications showJapanese total commercial oil stocks declined a further 1 mb at the end of September. Demand for OPEC crude in 2010 is estimated at 28.6 mb/d, around 0.1 mb/d lower than in theprevious report. This represents a decline of 0.3 mb/d from the demand for OPEC crude in 2009. In2011, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 28.8 mb/d, unchanged from the previousassessment and an increase of around 0.2 mb/d over the previous year.