2015年7月石油市场月报(2015)MOMR July 2015(2015)

石油市场亮点

原油价格变动

6月份，欧佩克参考价格篮子平均为60.21美元/桶，下降了1.95美元。原油期货价格涨跌互现，冰布伦特原油期货价格平均下跌1.86美元，至63.75美元/桶，纽约商品交易所WTI原油期货价格上涨46美元，至59.83美元/桶。这导致布伦特原油期货价格本月收窄至3.90美元/桶左右。基金经理进一步减少了期货市场的净多头头寸。

世界经济

预计2016年世界经济增长率为3.5%，略高于今年的3.2%。经合组织经济体预计2016年将增长2.1%，而本年为2.0%。预计中国经济增速将从2015年的6.9%降至6.5%，预计2016年印度经济增速将达到7.7%，高于今年的7.5%，俄罗斯和巴西都有望走出衰退。全球经济增长预测的风险似乎略有下降。

世界石油需求

2015年世界石油需求预计将增长128万桶/日，自上一份报告以来，全球石油需求将增长10万桶/日。据预测，2016世界石油需求增长将达到1.34百万桶/天，经合组织的需求预计将实现18百万桶/天的正增长，而非经合组织的消费预计将增长1.16百万桶/天。

世界石油供应

2015年非欧佩克国家石油供应增长率修正为18万桶/日，达到86万桶/日，主要受经合组织（OECD）美洲、拉丁美洲和FSU的推动。2016年，非欧佩克国家石油供应预计将增长30万桶/日，达到平均5769万桶/日。欧佩克国家石油供应预计将从本年度的19万桶/日下降至2016年的17万桶/日。据第二位消息人士称，今年6月，欧佩克的产量增加了283 tb/d，平均为3138 mb/d。

产品市场和炼油业务

大西洋盆地的产品市场在6月份涨跌互现。美国驾车季节推动汽油需求量降至950万桶/日左右，这是多年来未见的水平，为汽油裂缝蔓延提供了支撑。这在一定程度上抵消了油价中间的疲软，使得该地区炼油厂的利润率保持健康。亚洲的利润率保持了上个月的水平，这是在亚洲市场持续获得贷款支持的情况下，由于地区需求旺盛。

油轮市场

6月份，脏油轮的平均即期运价上涨了12%，主要原因是阿芙拉型油轮的运价较上月有所上涨。阿芙拉型油轮的价格受到市场活跃和多个港口卸货延误的支撑。苏伊士以东和以西的清洁油轮现货运价都有所上升，因为吨位需求仍然很高。

股票变动

经合组织（OECD）5月份商业石油库存继续上升，达到2833mb，比5年平均水平高出约142mb，其中原油和产品分别显示约115mb和26mb的盈余。从远期覆盖天数来看，5月份经合组织商业股为61.8天，比5年平均水平高出约3.7天。

供需平衡

据估计，2015年欧佩克原油需求量为2920万桶/日，比上一年估计减少了10万桶/日，比上一年增加了20万桶/日。2016年，欧佩克原油需求预计为3010万桶/日，比今年的预计水平增加90万桶/日。

Oil market highlights 

Crude Oil Price Movements 

The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $60.21/b in June, representing a decline of $1.95.Crude oil futures prices saw mixed movement with ICE Brent falling by $1.86 to average$63.75/b, while Nymex WTI gained 46 to reach $59.83/b. This caused the Brent-WTIspread to narrow to around $3.90/b for the month. Money managers further reducednet-long positions in the futures markets. 

World Economy

 World economic growth for 2016 is forecast at 3.5%, slightly higher than this year’s growthof 3.2%. The OECD economies are expected to expand by 2.1% in 2016, compared to2.0% in the current year. China is expected to decelerate to 6.5% from 6.9% in 2015, whileIndia is forecast to reach higher growth at 7.7% in 2016, compared to 7.5% this year.Positively, both Russia and Brazil are forecast to move out of recession. Risks to the globaleconomic growth forecast appear to be slightly on the downside.

 World Oil Demand 

World oil demand in 2015 is now expected to grow by 1.28 mb/d, following an upwardrevision of 0.10 mb/d since the last report. In 2016, world oil demand growth is forecast topick up, reaching 1.34 mb/d. OECD demand is expected to register positive growth of0.18 mb/d, while non-OECD consumption is projected to grow by 1.16 mb/d. 

World Oil Supply 

Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2015 has been revised up by 0.18 mb/d to stand at0.86 mb/d, mainly driven by OECD Americas, Latin America and the FSU. In 2016,non-OPEC oil supply is projected to grow by 0.30 mb/d to average 57.69 mb/d. OPECNGLs are expected to grow by 0.17 mb/d in 2016, down from 0.19 mb/d in the currentyear. In June, OPEC production increased by 283 tb/d to average 31.38 mb/d, according tosecondary sources. 

Product Markets and Refining Operations

 Product markets in the Atlantic Basin were mixed in June. The US driving season pushedup gasoline demand to around 9.5 mb/d, a level not seen in years, providing support to thegasoline crack spreads. This partially offset the weakness in the middle of the barrel,allowing refinery margins to remain healthy in the region. Asian margins retained thestrength seen in the previous month as regional demand amid a heavy maintenanceseason continued lending support to the Asian market.

 Tanker Market

 Average spot freight rates for dirty tankers went up by 12% in June, mainly as Aframaxspot freight rates increased from the previous month. Aframax rates were supported by anactive market and discharge delays at several ports. Clean tanker spot freight ratesincreased in both East and West of Suez as the tonnage demand remains high.

 Stock Movements 

OECD commercial oil stocks continued to rise in May to stand at 2,833 mb, some 142 mbhigher than the five-year average, with crude and products indicating a surplus of around115 mb and 26 mb, respectively. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercialstocks stand at 61.8 days in May, some 3.7 days higher than the five-year average. 

Balance of Supply and Demand 

Demand for OPEC crude is estimated at 29.2 mb/d in 2015, a decline of 0.1 mb from theprevious assessment and representing a gain of 0.2 mb/d over the previous year. In 2016,demand for OPEC crude is projected at 30.1 mb/d, up by 0.9 mb/d over the estimated levelfor the current year.