2014年7月石油市场月报(2014)MOMR July 2014(2014)

石油市场亮点

原油价格变动

欧佩克6月参考价格篮子上涨2.45美元，至107.89美元/桶。NymexWTI上涨3.35美元至105.15美元/桶，ICE布伦特上涨2.73美元至111.97美元/桶。因伊拉克局势动荡，投机者对ICE布伦特的多头头寸创下历史新高。布伦特/WTIspread指数本月收盘跌破7美元/桶，此前该指数在月中曾扩大至接近10美元/桶。

世界经济

2014年世界经济增长率从3.4%修正为3.1%，这是由美国2014年第一季度意外的低增长所触发的。2015年的增长预测为3.4%，这得益于经合组织（OECD）的增长速度从今年的1.7%加快到2015年的2.0%。预计2015年中国国内生产总值将从今年的7.4%增长7.2%，明年印度将从2014年的5.5%增长到5.8%。

世界石油需求

2014年全球石油需求增长预计为113万桶/日，与上一份报告基本持平。预计2015年世界石油需求将以121万桶/日的更快速度增长。预计经合组织的需求自2010年以来将首次出现正增长，增长约40 tb/d，而非经合组织的消费预计将为大部分石油需求增长提供118万桶/日。

世界石油供应

2014年，非欧佩克国家的石油供应预计将增加147万桶/日，此前的报告略有上调。2015年，非欧佩克国家的供应量预计将以每天131万桶的速度放缓。预计欧佩克国家液化天然气和非常规液体的供应量在今年增长150吨/日后，将在2015年增长200吨/日，达到平均600万桶/日。根据第二来源，2014年6月，欧佩克原油产量下降了79tb/d，平均为2970万桶/d。

产品市场和炼油业务

美国夏季强劲的汽油需求支撑了大西洋盆地的产品市场。这已经超过了原油中、底部的大幅下跌，阻止了美国和欧洲炼油厂利润率的下降。由于炼油厂从维修中恢复，需求疲软，导致炼油厂利润率大幅下降，因此，产品市场继续走低。

油轮市场

6月份油轮市场现货运价涨跌互现。超大型油轮和苏伊士型油轮在一些地区的活动增加后有所增加，而吨位清单似乎更短。相比之下，由于活动受到限制，阿芙拉型油轮的现货运价略有下降，而吨位供应仍处于过剩状态。

股票变动

经合组织（OECD）5月份商业股上涨3200万股，但仍低于5年平均水平5300万股。原油库存比五年平均水平高出1200万桶，而产品库存比五年平均水平低6500万桶。在远期覆盖方面，经合组织的商业股票价格稳定在57.7天。6月份的初步数据显示，美国商业石油库存总量增加了1700万桶，高于5年平均水平900万桶。最原始的库存比五年平均水平高出1900万桶，而产品则低于900万桶。

供需平衡

2014年欧佩克原油需求与上一份报告的2970万桶/日持平。根据初步预测，2015年欧佩克原油需求预计平均2940万桶/日，下降30万桶/日。

Oil market highlights 

Crude Oil Price Movements 

The OPEC Reference Basket increased by $2.45 in June to reach $107.89/b. NymexWTI gained $3.35 to $105.15/b and ICE Brent added $2.73 to $111.97/b. Speculatornet long positions on ICE Brent hit a record high on turmoil in Iraq. The Brent/WTIspread closed the month below $7/b, after having widened to near $10/b mid-month.

 World Economy

 World economic growth for 2014 has been revised to 3.1% from 3.4%, triggered byunexpected low 1Q14 growth in the US. The 2015 growth forecast stands at 3.4%,supported by the accelerating pace of OECD growth from 1.7% this year to 2.0% in2015. China’s GDP is forecast to grow by 7.2% in 2015 from 7.4% in the current year.India is seen growing at 5.8% next year, up from 5.5% in 2014. 

World Oil Demand 

Global oil demand growth in 2014 is forecast at 1.13 mb/d, broadly unchanged from theprevious report. World oil demand in 2015 is anticipated to increase at a faster pace of1.21 mb/d. OECD demand is expected to see positive growth for the first time since2010, increasing around 40 tb/d, while non-OECD consumption is expected to providethe bulk of oil demand growth with 1.18 mb/d. 

World Oil Supply

 Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to increase by 1.47 mb/d in 2014, following a slightupward revision from the previous report. In 2015, non-OPEC supply is projected togrow at a slower pace of 1.31 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids areforecast to grow by 200 tb/d in 2015 to average 6.0 mb/d, after growth of 150 tb/d thisyear. In June 2014, OPEC crude oil production, according to secondary sources,declined by 79 tb/d to average 29.70 mb/d. 

Product Markets and Refining Operations 

Strong summer gasoline demand in the US has supported product markets in theAtlantic Basin. This has outweighed the considerable decline seen in the middle andbottom of the barrel, preventing refinery margins from falling in the US and Europe. InAsia, product markets have continued to lose ground, as weak demand amid the returnof refineries from maintenance has caused refinery margins to fall sharply. 

Tanker Market 

Tanker market spot freight rates saw mixed movement in June. VLCC and Suezmaxrates increased on the back of higher activity in several regions, while the tonnage listappeared shorter. In contrast, Aframax spot freight rates declined slightly, as a result oflimited activities, while tonnage availability remained in surplus. 

Stock Movements 

OECD commercial stocks rose by 32 mb in May, but remained 53 mb below the five-yearaverage. Crude stocks were 12 mb above the five-year average, while productinventories were 65 mb below. In terms of forward cover, OECD commercial stocksstood at a comfortable level of 57.7 days. Preliminary data for June shows that US totalcommercial oil stocks rose by 17.0 mb to stand 9 mb above the five-year average. Crudestocks were 19 mb above the five-year average, while products were 9 mb below. 

Balance of Supply and Demand

 Demand for OPEC crude in 2014 remains unchanged from the previous report at29.7 mb/d. Based on initial forecasts, demand for OPEC crude in 2015 is projected toaverage 29.4 mb/d, representing a decline by 0.3 mb/d.