2016年3月石油市场月报(2016)MOMR March 2016(2016)

原油价格变动

石油输出国组织（欧佩克）的一篮子参考原油价格在2月份出现了三个月来的首次回升，上涨8.4%或2.22美元，达到28.72美元/桶。原油期货涨跌互现，ICE布伦特原油价格上涨1.60美元，达到33.53美元/桶，Nymex WTI原油价格下跌1.16美元，达到30.62美元/桶。布伦特WTI价差停止了收窄趋势，扩大了2.76美元，达到2.91美元/桶。

世界经济

在2015年世界经济增长率预计为2.9%之后，今年的世界经济增长率已下调至3.1%。经合组织（OECD）2016年的增长率已下调至1.9%，略低于2015年的2.0%。在新兴经济体中，印度和中国似乎继续以7.5%和6.3%的速度扩张。不过，巴西和俄罗斯目前预计2016年将出现比预期更大的收缩。

世界石油需求

根据上一份报告，2015年世界石油需求增长率为154万桶/日，平均为9298万桶/日。2016年全球石油需求增长也保持在125万桶/日左右，平均为9423万桶/日。

世界石油供应

2015年非欧佩克国家石油供应增长率已上调100 tb/d，至142 mb/d，平均为5709 mb/d。此次上调主要是由经合组织（OECD）对2015年第4季度数据的上调推动的。2016年，非欧佩克石油供应预计将减少70万桶/日，平均为5639万桶/日。继2015年增长15万桶/日后，欧佩克天然气供应预计今年将增加17万桶/日。根据第二来源，2月份，欧佩克原油产量下降了175 tb/d，平均为3228 mb/d。

产品市场和炼油业务

尽管汽油需求强劲，但供过于求的环境对产品市场造成压力，并导致大西洋盆地的利润率下降。同时，在亚洲，由于轻质馏分油供过于求，导致汽油和石脑油裂缝蔓延严重。这一点，加上油价中间线的持续走弱，导致该地区炼油厂利润率出现大幅亏损。

油轮市场

脏油轮现货运价在2月份下降，几乎所有船只的运价都有所下降。下降的主要原因是东部的活动和假期有限，唯一的例外是加勒比海装货的阿芙拉型油轮运价，这是由恶劣的天气条件支撑的。清洁油轮市场在2月份经历了同样的普遍负增长，苏伊士以东和以西的运价分别下降了14%和18%。

股票变动

经合组织（OECD）1月份商业石油库存增长至30.23亿桶。在这一水平上，库存比五年平均水平高出约328mb，其中原油和产品的asurplus分别约为244mb和84mb。在远期保护期内，1月份OEC商业库存为65.3天，比5年平均水平高出约6.8天。

供需平衡

据估计，2015年欧佩克原油需求量平均为2970万桶/日，此前该数据较上月的报告下调了10万桶/日，与上一年基本持平。2016年，欧佩克原油需求预计为3150万桶/日，10万桶/日，低于上月，比上年增加180万桶/日。

Crude Oil Price Movements 

The OPEC Reference Basket recovered in February for the first time in three months,gaining 8.4% or $2.22 to reach $28.72/b. Crude oil futures were mixed, with ICE Brentending up $1.60 to reach $33.53/b, while Nymex WTI fell by $1.16 to stand at $30.62/b.The Brent-WTI spread halted its narrowing trend, widening by $2.76 to $2.91/b. 

World Economy 

World economic growth has been revised down for this year to 3.1%, after estimatedgrowth of 2.9% in 2015. OECD growth in 2016 has been revised lower to 1.9%, slightlybelow the 2.0% seen in 2015. In the emerging economies, India and China are seencontinuing to expand at a considerable pace of 7.5% and 6.3%, respectively. Brazil andRussia, however, are now forecast to see a larger than expected contraction in 2016. 

World Oil Demand 

World oil demand growth for 2015 stands at 1.54 mb/d to average 92.98 mb/d, in line withthe previous report. Global oil demand growth for 2016 also remains unchanged at around1.25 mb/d to average 94.23 mb/d. 

World Oil Supply 

Non-OPEC oil supply growth for 2015 has been revised up by 100 tb/d to 1.42 mb/d for anaverage of 57.09 mb/d. This revision was mostly driven by upward adjustments to 4Q15data in the OECD. In 2016, non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to contract by 0.70 mb/d toaverage 56.39 mb/d. OPEC NGLs are expected to increase by 0.17 mb/d this year,following growth of 0.15 mb/d in 2015. In February, OPEC crude production, according tosecondary sources, decreased by 175 tb/d to average 32.28 mb/d. 

Product Markets and Refining Operations 

Despite strong gasoline demand, the oversupply environment exerted pressure on theproduct market and caused margins to weaken in the Atlantic basin. Meanwhile, in Asialight distillates oversupply caused the gasoline and naphtha crack spreads to suffer a sharpfall. This, along with the continued weakening at the middle of the barrel, caused refinerymargins to exhibit a sharp loss in the region. 

Tanker Market 

Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined in February, with rates falling for almost all vesselson all reported routes. The drop was mainly due to limited activity and holidays in the East.The only exception was Aframax rates for Caribbean’s loadings, which were supported bybad weather conditions. The clean tanker market experienced the same general negativetrend in February, as rates dropped both East and West of Suez by 14% and 18%,respectively. 

Stock Movements 

OECD commercial oil stocks rose in January to stand at 3,023 mb. At this level, inventorieswere around 328 mb higher than the five-year average, with crude and products showing asurplus of around 244 mb and 84 mb, respectively. In days of forward cover, OECDcommercial stocks stood at 65.3 days in January, some 6.8 days higher than the five-yearaverage. 

Balance of Supply and Demand 

Demand for OPEC crude in 2015 is estimated to average 29.7 mb/d, following a downwardrevision of 0.1 mb/d from last month’s report and broadly unchanged from the previousyear. In 2016, demand for OPEC crude is expected to stand at 31.5 mb/d, 0.1 mb/d, lowerthan last month, and representing an increase of 1.8 mb/d over the previous year.