2015年10月石油市场月报(2015)MOMR October 2015(2015)

原油价格变动9月份，欧佩克参考价格篮子平均为44.83美元/桶，较上月的63美元/桶有所下降。一年多来打压市场的基本面因素持续存在，但开始出现缓和迹象。ICE布伦特平均价格为48.54美元/桶，较上月上涨33美元；Nymex WTI平均价格为45.47美元/桶，上涨2.58美元。布伦特-WTI价差从5.32美元/桶大幅收窄至3.07美元/桶。2015年世界经济增长率保持不变，为3.1%，2016年为3.4%。OECD的增长率在两年内也保持不变，分别为2.0%和2.1%。主要新兴经济体正面临越来越多的挑战，尽管中国和印度的经济增长预测保持不变，但巴西和俄罗斯2015年和2016年的经济增长均被下调了0.2个百分点。2015年世界石油需求量预计将增长150万桶/日，在大约40 tb/d的上升修正之后，主要是由于2015年第三季度的数据好于预期。目前，石油总需求预计为9286万桶/日。2016年，世界石油需求预计将增加125万桶/日，此前下调了40吨/日，主要是为了反映高基线效应。因此，世界石油需求预计将达到9411万桶/日。2015年，欧佩克石油供应增长目前为72万桶/日，此前的报告下调了16万桶/日，主要归因于美国的下调。2016年，非欧佩克国家的石油供应预计将出现13万桶/日的明显萎缩，与之前的评估相比下降了29万桶/日。欧佩克天然气产量预计在2016年增长17万桶/日，今年增长19万桶/日。据二级消息来源称，9月份，欧佩克原油产量增加了109tb/d，平均为3157mb/d。大西洋盆地的产品市场和炼油业务由于美国驾驶季结束后汽油裂缝蔓延的急剧下降，9月份产品市场疲软。加上库存增加，这导致该地区炼油厂利润率下降。受区域炼油厂维修开始和迪拜原油价格下跌调整的推动，市场人气趋紧，亚洲市场保证金走强。油轮市场脏船现货运价9月份涨跌不一，超大型油轮表现出强劲增长。与上月相比，超大型油轮和苏伊士型油轮的即期运价分别增长27%和5%，而阿芙拉型油轮的即期运价则有所下降。中东和西非的租船活动，以及港口延误，支持了这一成果。在清洁油轮市场，苏伊士以西的活动落后于现货运价的小幅上涨，而苏伊士以东的运价仍然疲软。8月份，商业石油库存进一步上升，达到293300万桶。在这个水平上，库存比五年平均水平高出约194MB。原油和产品的盈余分别约为167MB和270MB。从远期覆盖天数来看，8月份经合组织商业库存为63.3天，比5年平均水平高出约4.5天；预计2015年欧佩克原油供需平衡为2960万桶/日，比上一次报告高出30万桶/日，比上一年水平高出60万桶/日。2016年，预计欧佩克原油需求为3080万桶/日，比上一份报告增加50万桶/日，比本年度增加120万桶/日。

Crude Oil Price MovementsThe OPEC Reference Basket averaged $44.83/b in September, representing a declinefrom the previous month of 63. Fundamentals factors that have weighed on the market formore than a year have persisted, but are starting to show signs of alleviation. ICE Brentaveraged $48.54/b, a gain of 33 over the previous month, and Nymex WTI averaged$45.47/b, up $2.58. The Brent-WTI spread narrowed sharply from $5.32/b to $3.07/b.World EconomyWorld economic growth remains unchanged at 3.1% for 2015 and 3.4% for 2016. OECDgrowth also remains unchanged for both years at 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively. Keyemerging economies are increasingly facing challenges and while the growth forecast forChina and India remains unchanged, both Brazil’s and Russia’s growth have been reviseddown by 0.2 percentage points for 2015 and 2016.World Oil DemandWorld oil demand growth in 2015 is foreseen to rise by 1.50 mb/d, following an upwardrevision of around 40 tb/d, mostly due to better-than-expected data in 3Q15. Total oildemand is now forecast at 92.86 mb/d. In 2016, world oil demand is anticipated to rise by1.25 mb/d, following a downward revision of 40 tb/d, mainly to reflect the high base-lineeffect. As a result, world oil demand is forecast to reach 94.11 mb/d.World Oil SupplyNon-OPEC oil supply growth in 2015 now stands at 0.72 mb/d, following a downwardrevision of 0.16 mb/d from the previous report, attributed mainly to a downward adjustmentin the US. For 2016, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to show a clear contraction of0.13 mb/d, following a downward revision of 0.29 mb/d compared to the previousassessment. OPEC NGLs are expected to grow by 0.17 mb/d in 2016, following growth of0.19 mb/d this year. In September, OPEC crude production increased by 109 tb/d toaverage 31.57 mb/d, according to secondary sources.Product Markets and Refining OperationsProduct markets in the Atlantic Basin weakened during September due to a sharp drop inthe gasoline crack spread following the end of the US driving season. Combined withincreasing inventories, this caused the refinery margins to fall in the region. Asian marginsstrengthened on the back of tightening sentiment, fuelled by the onset of regional refinerymaintenance and a downward correction in Dubai crude prices.Tanker MarketDirty vessel spot freight rates saw mixed movements in September, with VLCCs showingthe strongest growth. Compared to the previous month, VLCC and Suezmax spot freightrates increased by 27% and 5%, respectively, while Aframax rates declined. Charteringactivities in the Middle East and West Africa, along with port delays, supported the gains. Inthe clean tanker market, West of Suez activities were behind the marginal increase in spotfreight rates, while East of Suez rates remained weak.Stock MovementsOECD commercial oil stocks rose further in August to stand at 2,933 mb. At this level,inventories were around 194 mb higher than the five-year average. Crude and productsshowed a surplus of around 167 mb and 27 mb, respectively. In terms of days of forwardcover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 63.3 days in August, some 4.5 days higher thanthe five-year average.Balance of Supply and DemandDemand for OPEC crude in 2015 is estimated to stand at 29.6 mb/d, 0.3 mb/d higher thanthe previous report and 0.6 mb/d above the previous year’s level. In 2016, demand forOPEC crude is forecast at 30.8 mb/d, an increase of 0.5 mb/d over the previous report andaround 1.2 mb/d higher than the current year.