2016年11月石油市场月报(2016)MOMR November 2016(2016)

原油价格变动10月份，欧佩克参考价格篮子上涨4.98美元，至平均47.87美元/桶。ICE布伦特和NYMEX WTI也分别上涨4.15美元和4.71美元，至平均51.39美元/桶和49.94美元/桶。由于美国石油库存水平下降，以及有关推动市场重新平衡的讨论，油价上涨。然而，油价受到美国石油钻井平台数量增加、美元走强和获利回吐的压力。ICE布伦特纽约商品交易所WTI指数收窄至1.45美元/桶，鼓励美国进口布伦特相关品级。今年全球经济增长预测保持不变，为2.9%，2017年为3.1%。经合组织对2016年和2017年的预测也分别保持在1.6%和1.7%，尽管欧元区今年和明年的增长率分别被修正为1.6%和1.3%。对中国的预测在2016年和2017年分别上调至6.7%和6.2%，而印度今年和明年的增长率分别保持在7.5%和7.2%不变。预计俄罗斯在2017年将实现0.8%的强劲复苏，而今年则为0.6%。巴西在今年增长3.4%后，2017年的增长率保持在0.4%不变。世界石油需求预计在2016年将增长123万桶/日，达到平均9440万桶/日。这是由于拉丁美洲和中东的表现低于预期而进行的边际下调，这几乎完全被经合组织（OECD）欧洲和亚太经合组织（AsiaPacific）公布的好于预期的石油需求增长数据所抵消。2017年，世界石油需求增长率为115万桶/日，从10月份的最高原油需求量（MOMR）到平均95.55万桶/日没有变化。继10月份的最高原油需求量（MOMR）到平均56.20万桶/日后，预计2016年欧佩克的世界石油供应量将收缩0.78万桶/日，非欧佩克国家的天然气供应量增长略微下降了10 tb/d，至23万桶/日，平均为56.43万桶/日。预计欧佩克国家的天然气供应量在2017年平均为64.3万桶/日，比今年增加了15万桶/日。根据第二来源，欧佩克原油产量在10月份增加了24万桶/日，达到平均3364万桶/日。10月份，大西洋盆地的产品市场和炼油业务产品市场继续走强。在需求强劲和库存下降的情况下，油价中间价的积极表现，使得汽油裂损利差显示出大幅复苏。与此同时，一些汽油供应中断加剧了汽油市场的紧张情绪。在亚洲，利润率保持健康，在区域炼油厂维护高峰期，区域需求强劲支撑。10月份，油轮市场油轮市场情绪普遍好转，脏油和清洁油市场的运费均有所上升。受吨位需求改善和季节性需求影响，脏油轮现货运价较上月大幅上涨13%，其中超大型油轮收益最高。租船活动在10月份小幅上升，尽管大部分仍低于去年同期的水平。9月份商业库存总量下降至30520万桶，比五年平均水平高出约304万桶，原油和产品库存分别出现1650万桶和1380万桶的盈余。就远期覆盖天数而言，经合组织9月份商业投资为65.7天，比季节平均水平高出约6.5天。预计2016年欧佩克原油供需平衡为3190万桶/日，去年增加190万桶/多佛。2017年，预计欧佩克原油需求为3270万桶/日，比今年增加80万桶/日。

Crude Oil Price MovementsThe OPEC Reference Basket rose by $4.98 in October, to average $47.87/b. ICE Brentand NYMEX WTI also surged, up by $4.15 and $4.71, to average $51.39/b and $49.94/b,respectively. Prices were lifted by declining US oil inventory levels and discussions to bringforward market rebalancing. However, prices came under pressure from a rise in US oil rigcounts, a stronger US dollar, and profit taking. The ICE Brent-NYMEX WTI spreadnarrowed to $1.45/b, encouraging US imports of Brent-related grades.World EconomyWorld economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 2.9% for this year and 3.1% for2017. The OECD forecast also remains at 1.6% and 1.7% for 2016 and 2017, respectively,although growth in the Eurozone has been revised up to 1.6% and 1.3% for this and thecoming year. The forecasts for China were also revised up to 6.7% in 2016 and 6.2% in2017, while growth in India has been left unchanged at 7.5% for this year and 7.2% for thecoming year. Russia is forecast to see a stronger recovery of 0.8% in 2017, following acontraction of 0.6% this year. Brazil’s growth was unchanged at 0.4% in 2017 after acontraction of 3.4% this year.World Oil DemandWorld oil demand growth is expected to increase by 1.23 mb/d in 2016 to average94.40 mb/d. This follows a marginal downward adjustment to account for the slower-thanexpectedperformance of Latin America and the Middle East, which was almost entirelyoffset by better-than-expected oil demand growth data from OECD Europe and AsiaPacific. In 2017, world oil demand growth is seen at 1.15 mb/d, unchanged from theOctober MOMR to average 95.55 mb/d.World Oil SupplyNon-OPEC oil supply in 2016 is now expected to contract by 0.78 mb/d, following adownward revision of around 0.1 mb/d from the October MOMR, to average 56.20 mb/d. In2017, non-OPEC supply growth was revised down slightly by 10 tb/d to 0.23 mb/d,averaging 56.43 mb/d. OPEC NGLs are expected to average 6.43 mb/d in 2017, anincrease of 0.15 mb/d over the current year. OPEC crude production, according tosecondary sources, increased by 0.24 mb/d in October to average 33.64 mb/d.Product Markets and Refining OperationsProduct markets in the Atlantic Basin continued to strengthen in October. The positiveperformance of the middle of the barrel, amid stronger demand and falling inventories,allowed gasoil crack spreads to show a sharp recovery. Meanwhile, some outages fuelleda tightening sentiment in the gasoline market. In Asia, margins remained healthy,supported by stronger regional demand amid the peak of regional refinery maintenance.Tanker MarketTanker market sentiment experienced a general improvement in October, as freight ratesin both dirty and clean segments of the market increased. Dirty tanker spot freight ratesaveraged 13% higher over the previous month on the back of improved tonnagerequirements and seasonal demand, with VLCCs achieving the highest gains. Charteringactivities edged up in October, although mostly remaining below year-ago levels.Stock MovementsOECD total commercial stocks fell in September to stand at 3,052 mb, some 304 mbabove the five-year average, as crude and product inventories showed surpluses of165 mb and 138 mb, respectively. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercialinventories stood at 65.7 days in September, some 6.5 days above the seasonal average.Balance of Supply and DemandDemand for OPEC crude in 2016 is estimated to stand at 31.9 mb/d, a gain of 1.9 mb/dover last year. In 2017, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.7 mb/d, an increase of0.8 mb/d over the current year.