2011年10月石油市场月报(2011)MOMR October 2011(2011)

9月份，欧佩克参考价格在102-112美元/桶的大范围内波动，因为市场情绪主要受全球经济不确定性的影响，特别是欧元区的不确定性。然而，对全球经济增长速度的担忧加剧，使得欧佩克参考价格在10月初跌至100美元/桶以下。在经济前景恶化和美元走强的背景下，期货价格进一步下跌。纽约商品交易所（Nymex）WTI前一个月的股价在9月份跌至一个月低点，在10月份的第一周跌至76美元/桶以下。同样，在10月初，冰面布伦特原油期货价格进一步下跌，自1月底以来首次跌破100美元/桶。10月10日，欧佩克参考价格为104.67美元/桶。2011年世界经济增长率保持不变，为3.6%，2012年已下调至3.7%。至少目前，全球产出的减速似乎已经趋于稳定，尽管仍有许多国家，特别是欧元区国家。预计美国2011年和2012年的增长率分别为1.6%和1.8%。欧元区目前预计2011年将增长1.6%，但2012年仅增长0.8%。日本经济在2011年萎缩0.8%后，预计2012年将恢复2.4%。然而，复苏的幅度仍不确定。发展中国家的增长水平仍然相对较高，尽管政策措施的减速效应已经开始产生影响。尽管中国2011年和2012年的增长率分别保持在9.0%和8.5%不变，但印度2011年和2012年的预测值均已下调至7.6%。世界石油需求增长率已下调18万桶/日，以显示2011年的增长率为90万桶/日。世界经济的不确定性使2011年的前景黯淡，特别是在欧洲共同体地区。由于新的政府政策旨在减少运输燃料的使用，中国的石油需求必然会出现不确定性。预计印度零售价格的上涨将在明年抑制石油消费方面发挥主要作用。由于经济前景疲软，2012年世界石油需求增长预测已下调至120万桶/日。2011年非欧佩克国家石油供应预计将增加40万桶/日，此前一个月下调了16万桶/日，主要原因是加拿大、英国、巴西的石油供应低于预期，还有阿塞拜疆。2012年，在巴西、加拿大、哥伦比亚和美国的预期增长的支持下，非欧佩克国家的石油供应预计将增长80万桶/日，高于上一份报告。2012年，欧佩克天然气和非常规石油产量预计将增加40万桶/日，与今年的增长保持一致。根据第二来源的数据，9月份，欧佩克原油总产量平均为2990万桶/日，比上个月减少了77吨/日。产品市场人气转为看跌，抹去了前几个月的复苏，产品利润率暴跌。大西洋盆地整个驾驶季需求疲弱，对欧元区经济发展的担忧再度升温，有助于抑制市场情绪。9月份，大西洋盆地的炼油厂利润率急剧下降3美元/桶。原油油轮市场依然疲软，超大型油轮、苏伊士型油轮和法拉马型油轮的现货运价分别下降了5%、3%和8%，原因是吨位供应增加和预期需求降低。由于吨位供应过剩、吨位要求降低和套利有限，9月份苏伊士以东和以西清洁现货运价分别下降3%和2%。9月份，欧佩克石油产量增加了40万桶/日，至平均1150万桶/日，主要来自中东地区。欧佩克的航行量几乎保持稳定，仅略有增加。9月份，美国商业石油库存减少了1340万桶。这一下降完全归因于原油价格下跌了1680万英镑，而产品库存上升了340万英镑。尽管有所下降，但美国商业石油库存总量与五年平均水平基本持平。在日本，8月份最新的月度数据显示，商业石油库存下降了140万桶。原油需求下降690万桶，成品油库存增加550万桶。2011年，欧佩克原油需求估计为2990万桶/日，与之前的评估持平，比去年增加约10万桶/日。2012年，对欧佩克原油的需求预计将达到平均2990万桶/日，与上一份报告相比，下降了10万桶/日，今年没有增长。

 The OPEC Reference Basket moved within a wide range of $102-$112/b in September as marketsentiment was dominated by economic uncertainties around the globe, particularly in the Euro-zone.However, increasing concerns about the pace of global economic growth pushed the OPECReference Basket below $100/b in early October. Futures prices declined further amid adeteriorating economic outlook and stronger US dollar. The Nymex WTI front-month fell to aten-month low in September and dropped below $76/b in the first week of October. Similarly, in earlyOctober, the ICE Brent front-month weakened further to settle below $100/b, for the first time sincethe end of January. On 10 October, the OPEC Reference Basket stood at $104.67/b. World economic growth remains unchanged at 3.6% in 2011 and has been revised down to 3.7%in 2012. At least for now, the deceleration of global output seems to have stabilized, although manyrisks remain, particularly in the Euro-zone. The US is forecast to grow at 1.6% in 2011 and at 1.8%in 2012. The Euro-zone is now expected to expand by 1.6% in 2011, but by only 0.8% in 2012.Japan’s economy is expected to recover by 2.4% in 2012, after a contraction of 0.8% in 2011.However, the magnitude of the recovery remains uncertain. Growth levels in the developingcountries remain relatively high, although a slow-down effect from the policy measures has startedto have an impact. While China remains unchanged at 9.0% for 2011 and 8.5% for 2012, India’sforecast has been revised lower to 7.6% for both 2011 and 2012. World oil demand growth has been revised down by 0.18 mb/d to show growth of 0.9 mb/d in2011. Uncertainty in the world economy has dimmed the picture for 2011, particularly in theOECD region. Chinese oil demand is bound to uncertainty because of new government policiesaimed at reducing transport fuel use. India’s increase in retail prices is expected to play a majorrole in dampening oil consumption in the coming year. Due to the weakening economic outlook,the forecast for world oil demand growth in 2012 has been revised down to stand at 1.2 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to increase by 0.4 mb/d in 2011, following a downwardrevision of 0.16 mb/d from the previous month, mainly due to lower-than-expected supply fromCanada, the UK, Brazil, and Azerbaijan. In 2012, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by0.8 mb/d, higher than in the previous report, supported by anticipated growth in Brazil, Canada,Colombia, and the US. OPEC NGLs and nonconventional oils are expected to increase by0.4 mb/d in 2012, in line with the current year’s growth. In September, total OPEC crude oilproduction averaged 29.90 mb/d according to secondary sources, representing a decrease of77 tb/d over the previous month. Sentiment in the product markets turned bearish, erasing the recovery of the previous months asproduct margins plummeted. Weaker demand throughout the driving season in the Atlantic basinand renewed concerns about economic developments in the Euro-zone helped to dampen marketsentiment. In September, refinery margins showed a sharp drop of $3/b in the Atlantic basin. The crude oil tanker market remained weak with spot freight rates for VLCCs, Suezmax andAframax declining 5%, 3% and 8% respectively, as a result of higher tonnage supply and lowerthan-expecteddemand. Both East and West of Suez clean spot freight rates decline by 3% and 2%in September due to tonnage oversupply, lower tonnage requirements and limited arbitrage. OPECspot fixtures increased 0.4 mb/d in September to average 11.5 mb/d mainly from the Middle East.OPEC sailings remained nearly steady with only a minor increase. US commercial oil inventories fell by 13.4 mb in September. This drop was attributed solely tocrude, which declined by 16.8 mb, while product inventories rose 3.4 mb. Despite the draw, total UScommercial oil inventories stood broadly in line with the five-year average. In Japan, the most recentmonthly data for August shows that commercial oil inventories fell by 1.4 mb. The draw wasattributed to a 6.9 mb decline in crude, as product stocks rose 5.5 mb. The demand for OPEC crude in 2011 is estimated at 29.9 mb/d, unchanged from the previousassessment and around 0.1 mb/d higher than last year. In 2012, the demand for OPEC crude isprojected to average 29.9 mb/d, representing a downward revision of 0.1 mb/d compared to theprevious report and no growth over the current year.