2011年9月石油市场月报(2011)MOMR September 2011(2011)

8月份，欧佩克的参考价格下降了5.30美元或4.7%，这是自2010年5月以来百分比下降幅度最大的一次。该篮子仍不稳定，波动在101.20美元/桶至113.17美元/桶之间。由于持续的经济和信贷担忧，价格在8月初经历了大幅下跌。然而，市场在月中旬趋于稳定，随后在inNorth海上供应中断和美国海湾风暴的支撑下走高。原油期货市场同样波动，纽约商品交易所（Nymex）8月份前7个交易日暴跌近11美元，至10个月低点79.30美元/桶。同期，ICE布伦特原油期货价格下跌14美元，至102.57美元/桶。截至本月底，两个合约价格分别回升至略低于89美元/桶和115美元/桶。9月9日，石油输出国组织（OPEC）的一篮子参考数据为110.40美元/桶。目前，预计2011年和2012年世界经济将分别以3.6%和3.9%的修正增长率增长，低于此前3.7%和4.0%的预期。大多数主要经济体的全球工业活动放缓引发了修正。美国目前预计2011年和2012年分别增长1.6%和1.9%。欧元区目前预计2011年和2012年分别增长1.7%和1.1%，第二季度的表现低于预期。日本经济仍在遭受3月份悲惨事件的折磨，预计2011年将收缩0.8%，2012年将扩张2.5%。发展中国家的经济增长水平继续保持自己的水平，中国的经济增长预期在2011年和2012年分别为9.0%和8.5%。然而，印度的扩张已经放缓，导致2011年预测略微下调至7.7%。2011年世界石油需求增长已下调0.15百万桶/日，目前为110百万桶/日。下调的原因是美国的驾驶季节低于预期，而经合组织的经济表现持续低迷。第三季度，中国的石油需求也比预期的要少。持续的经济不确定性也影响了2012年石油需求增长的预测，2012年的预测略低，目前为130万桶/日。2011年，非欧佩克石油供应预计将增长50万桶/日，自上次评估以来，该预测下调了80 tb/日，主要是由于FSU的修订，发展中国家和中国。2012年，非欧佩克石油供应量预计将增长80万桶/日。2011年，欧佩克天然气和非常规石油的平均供应量预计为530万桶/日，2012年为570万桶/日，这两年的增长率均为40万桶/日。8月份，欧佩克原油产量为2992万桶/日，较上月增加75吨/日。随着驱动季节的结束，产品市场继续受到大西洋盆地令人失望的需求的影响。然而，飓风“艾琳”造成的短缺和对拉丁美洲出口机会的增加部分抵消了看跌情绪。这为利润率提供了一定的支撑，利润率也得益于原油价格的下跌。由于可用吨位高、需求有限和炼油厂维护，看跌情绪继续主导原油油轮市场。清洁油轮运价在健康的东向产品需求的支持下略有上升。8月份，欧佩克的现货供应量下降了800 tb/d，平均为1245 mb/d，为5月份以来的最低水平。来自欧佩克国家的航运量下降了1%，平均为2258万桶/日。8月份，美国商业库存略微增加了30万桶。建造的石油产品增加了220万桶，而原油减少了190万桶，抵消了这一增长。因此，8月份美国商业石油库存比历史平均水平高出1920万桶。在日本，最新数据显示，7月份商业石油库存增加了170万桶，其中原油和成品油分别增加了110万桶和70万桶。日本石油库存显示出850万桶的历史趋势。2011年，欧佩克原油的需求量估计为2990万桶/日，比上一份报告低约10万桶/日。经过这一调整，欧佩克原油需求在前一年达到约20万桶/日的高位。2012年，预计欧佩克原油的需求量平均为3000万桶/日，比2011年增加了10万桶/日，比上一次评估时减少了10万桶/日。

 The OPEC Reference Basket fell $5.30 or 4.7% in August, the sharpest decline in percentageterms since May 2010. The Basket remained volatile, fluctuating between $101.20/b and $113.17/b.Prices experienced a sharp fall at the start of August on persistent economic and credit concerns.However, the market stabilized by mid-month and then moved higher, supported by disruptions inNorth Sea supply and US Gulf storms. Crude futures markets were similarly volatile with Nymex WTIplunging almost $11 over the first seven trading days in August to a 10-month low of $79.30/b. Overthe same period, ICE Brent shed $14 to stand at 102.57/b. By the end of the month, both contractshad recovered to just below $89/b and $115/b, respectively. On 9 September, the OPEC ReferenceBasket stood at $110.40/b. World economy is now expected to grow at a revised 3.6% in 2011 and 3.9% in 2012, down fromprevious expectations of 3.7% and 4.0% respectively. Revisions were triggered by a global slowdownin industrial activity in most of the major economies. The US is now forecast to grow at 1.6% in2011 and 1.9% in 2012. The Euro-zone is now expected to expand by 1.7% in 2011 and 1.1% in2012, following poorer-than-expected performance in the second quarter. Japan’s economy is stillsuffering from the tragic events in March and is expected to contract by 0.8% in 2011 beforeexpanding by 2.5% in 2012. Growth levels in the developing countries continue to be in a league oftheir own, with the forecast for China unchanged at 9.0% in 2011 and 8.5% in 2012. However,Indian’s expansion has slowed, resulting in a slight downward revision in the 2011 forecast to 7.7%. World oil demand growth in 2011 has been revised down by 0.15 mb/d to now stand at 1.1 mb/d.The downward adjustment has been due to a weaker-than-expected driving season in the US andthe ongoing sluggish economic performance in the OECD. Oil demand in China has also beenweaker than expected in the typically peak-demand third quarter. Ongoing economic uncertaintieshave also impacted the forecast for oil demand growth in 2012, which has been revised marginallylower to now stand at 1.3 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by 0.5 mb/d in 2011, following a downward revision of80 tb/d since the last assessment, mainly due to revisions in the FSU, developing countries andChina. In 2012, non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to grow by 0.8 mb/d. OPEC NGLs andnon-conventional oils are expected to average 5.3 mb/d in 2011 and 5.7 mb/d in 2012, representinggrowth of 0.4 mb/d for both years. In August, OPEC crude oil production stood at 29.92 mb/d,representing an increase of 75 tb/d from the previous month. With the end of the driving season, product markets continue to be impacted by disappointingdemand in the Atlantic Basin. However, the bearish sentiment was partially offset by the shortagegenerated by Hurricane Irene and increased export opportunities to Latin America. This hasprovided some support for margins, which have also benefitted from the fall in the crude prices inAugust. Bearish sentiments continued to dominate the crude oil tanker market, due to high tonnageavailability, limited demand and refinery maintenance. Clean tanker rates increased slightly inAugust on support from healthy eastbound product demand. In August, OPEC spot fixtures declined800 tb/d to average 12.45 mb/d, the lowest since May. Sailings from OPEC countries were down 1%to average 22.58 mb/d. US commercial inventories rose a slight 0.3 mb in August. The build was attributed to products,which increased by 2.2 mb, while crude offset the increase with a decline of 1.9 mb. As a result, UScommercial oil inventories were 19.2 mb above the historical average in August. In Japan, the mostrecent data shows that commercial oil inventories rose by 1.7 mb in July, with crude and productsexperiencing an increase of 1.1 mb and 0.7 mb respectively. Japanese oil inventories showed adeficit of 8.5 mb with the historical trend. The demand for OPEC crude in 2011 is estimated at 29.9 mb/d, around 0.1 mb/d lower than in theprevious report. With this adjustment, the demand for OPEC crude stood at about 0.2 mb/d higherthan in the previous year. In 2012, the demand from OPEC crude is expected to average 30 mb/d,up 0.1 mb/d from 2011 and 0.1 mb/d lower than in the previous assessment.