2012年11月石油市场月报(2012)MOMR November 2012(2012)

石油输出国组织（OPEC）10月份的参考价格篮子自创纪录的13%暴跌以来首次下跌，下跌2.31美元，至108.36美元/桶。供应增长增加和对全球经济健康状况的担忧使油价自9月中旬以来持续下跌。由于对全球经济放缓、未来需求前景悲观以及美国原油库存大幅增加的担忧超过了由于地缘政治因素引起的供应担忧，下行压力持续。此外，投机者继续从上季度的创纪录高位减少净多头头寸。净值清算的同时，价格也大幅下跌，证实了对冲基金头寸与原油价格之间的联系。11月8日，这一篮子货币为104.58美元/桶。2012年和2013年，全球增长预期分别为3.1%和3.2%。据预测，美国2012年和2013年将分别增长2.2%和2.0%；日本将从今年的2.2%降至2013年的1.1%；欧元区在2012年收缩0.5%后，明年将恢复0.1%的增长幅度。中国今年的增长预期分别为7.6%和8.0%，印度2012年和2013年的增长预期分别为5.7%和6.6%。2012年世界石油需求增长预计为80万桶/日。预计飓风桑迪将在10月底和11月初减少美国石油需求。年底的寒冷天气可能不仅会给美国，也会给欧洲的石油供暖带来压力。这可能会在第四季度略微增加石油需求。此外，由于经济活动放缓，交通运输部门在夏季石油使用高峰期造成了石油使用量的下降。据预测，2013年世界石油需求将继续增长，达到80万桶/日。预计世界经济疲软将给世界石油需求预测带来相当大的不确定性。预计2012年非欧佩克石油供应将增加50万桶/日，较上一份报告向下修正约50吨/日。2013年，非欧佩克石油供应预计将增长90万桶/日，与之前的预测一致。预计美国、加拿大、南苏丹和苏丹、巴西、澳大利亚、哈萨克斯坦和俄罗斯将成为明年经济增长的主要贡献者，而EMEXICO、挪威和英国预计将出现最大跌幅。据估计，2013年，欧佩克天然气和非常规石油的平均产量为600万桶/日，比本年度增长240吨/日。二级消息来源显示，10月份，欧佩克原油平均日产量3095万桶，较上月略有下降；10月份，产品市场表现喜忧参半。中间馏分油在冬季来临前市场人气趋紧，继续在全球范围内表现强劲。相比之下，在冬季结束时，大西洋盆地的汽油市场出现了大幅下滑。这一点，加上桶底的亏损，导致全球炼油厂利润率下降。在油轮市场上，10月份波澜不惊，总体上表现低迷。超大型油轮的吨位需求和运价有所下降，苏伊士型油轮的吨位需求和运价略有上升，而弗拉马克斯型油轮的吨位需求和运价保持平稳。10月份，欧佩克的出海量略有下降，平均为2371万桶/日。北美的出海量下降，而欧洲、远东和西亚的出海量上升。10月份，全球和欧佩克斯波特固定装置分别较上月增加60万桶/日和30万桶/日。初步数据显示，经合组织商业石油总库存与9月份的上月相比基本保持不变。库存比五年平均水平高出600万桶，但各组成部分的情况有所不同，因为商业原油库存显示出3200万桶的盈余，而产品库存则显示出2600万桶的赤字。在远期覆盖的天数中，截至9月底，oecd商业库存为58.9天，比5年平均水平高出近2天。最新数据显示，美国10月份商业石油库存总量下降320万桶，尽管仍比5年平均水平高出4200万桶，比一年前高出3400万桶。这一下降归因于产品价格下跌1160万英镑，而原油库存则上涨840万英镑。2012年欧佩克原油需求与之前的评估值3010万英镑/日持平，与上一年相比下降了10万英镑/日。据预测，2013年石油需求平均为2970万桶/日，比今年下降了40万桶/日，比上一份报告下降了10万桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket dropped in October for the first time since the record 13% plunge inJune, falling $2.31 to stand at $108.36/b. Higher supply growth and concerns regarding the health ofthe global economy have left oil prices on a steady decline since mid-September. The downwardpressure sustained as mounting concerns of a global economic slowdown, a pessimistic futuredemand outlook and significant crude stockbuilds in the US outweighed supply concerns due togeopolitical factors. Moreover, speculators continue to reduce net long positions from record-highlevels seen during the last quarter. The liquidation in net length coincided with a significant downturnin prices, confirming the link between hedge fund positions and crude oil prices. On 8 November, theBasket stood at $104.58/b.Global growth expectations are unchanged at 3.1% for 2012 and 3.2% for 2013. The US isforecast to grow by 2.2% in 2012 and 2.0% in 2013; Japan is expected to decelerate from 2.2% thisyear to 1.1% in 2013; and the Euro-zone to return to growth in the coming year at the magnitude of0.1% following a contraction of 0.5% in 2012. Growth expectations this year for China stand at 7.6%and at 8.0% in 2013, while India’s expansion is forecast at 5.7% in 2012 and 6.6% in 2013.World oil demand growth in 2012 is estimated at 0.8 mb/d. The impact of Hurricane Sandy isexpected to reduce US oil demand in late October and early November. Year-end cold weathermight put pressure on heating oil not only in the US but in Europe as well. This could increase oildemand marginally in the fourth quarter. Furthermore, the transportation sector contributed to theslowdown in oil use in its peak summer season as a result of slower economic activities. World oildemand is forecast to continue its growth during 2013 to reach 0.8 mb/d. Expected weakness in theworld economy is placing a considerable amount of uncertainty on the world oil demand forecast.Non-OPEC supply in 2012 is forecast to increase by 0.5 mb/d, representing a downward revision ofaround 50 tb/d from the previous report. In 2013, non-OPEC supply is forecast to grow by 0.9 mb/d,in line with the previous forecast. The US, Canada, South Sudan and Sudan, Brazil, Australia,Kazakhstan and Russia are expected to be the main contributors to next year’s growth, whileMexico, Norway, and the UK are anticipated to see the largest declines. OPEC NGLs and nonconventionaloils are estimated to average 6.0 mb/d in 2013, indicating growth of 240 tb/d over thecurrent year. In October, OPEC crude production averaged 30.95 mb/d, a minor decrease over theprevious month, according to secondary sources.Product markets showed a mixed performance in October. Middle distillates continued to showstrength worldwide on the back of tightening sentiment for that product ahead of the winter season.In contrast, the gasoline market experienced a sharp decline in the Atlantic Basin at the end of thedriving season. This, along with the loss in the bottom of the barrel, caused refinery margins to fallworldwide. In the tanker market, October was uneventful with low activity in general. Tonnage demand andfreight rates decreased for VLCCs, while slightly increasing for Suezmax and remaining flat forAframax. Sailings from OPEC declined slightly in October to average 23.71 mb/d. Arrivals in NorthAmerica dropped, while arrivals in Europe, the Far East and West Asia rose. Both global and OPECspot fixtures increased in October from the previous month by 0.6 mb/d and 0.3 mb/d, respectively.Preliminary data shows that total OECD commercial oil inventories remained broadly unchangedfrom the previous month in September. Inventories stood at 6 mb above the five-year average.However, the picture differs within the components as commercial crude stocks showed a surplus of32 mb, while product stocks indicated a deficit of 26 mb. In days of forward cover, OECDcommercial stocks stood at 58.9 days at the end of September, almost 2 days over the five-yearaverage. The latest data shows US total commercial oil stocks fell 3.2 mb in October, although stillrepresenting surpluses of 42 mb over the five-year average and 34 mb above a year ago. The dropwas attributed to products which fell by 11.6 mb, while crude oil stocks rose 8.4 mb.Demand for OPEC crude for 2012 remains unchanged from the previous assessment at30.1 mb/d, representing a decline of 0.1 mb/d compared to the previous year. Demand for OPECcrude in 2013 is forecast to average 29.7 mb/d, representing a drop of 0.4 mb/d from the currentyear and a downward adjustment of 0.1 mb/d from the previous report.