2009年9月石油市场月报(2009)MOMR September 2009(2009)

与上月相比，石油输出国组织（OPEC）的一篮子参考原油价格大幅上涨6.76美元/桶，涨幅10%，8月份达到71.35美元/桶。8月份，美国经济信号改善，加上库存减少，为市场情绪提供了支撑，尤其是本月下旬。然而，美元兑主要货币的波动和股市波动，以及获利了结的技术性抛售，限制了价格保持在70美元/桶左右的上升趋势。尽管基本面依然疲弱，但在经济情绪没有发生重大转变的情况下，当前的市场情况可能会持续下去。9月14日，一揽子价格平均为66.47美元/桶。2009年世界经济增长预测修正为负1.2%，2010年修正为2.5%，上调0.2个百分点。这些调整主要是由于第二季度全球经济增长数据在财政和货币刺激的支持下有所改善。经合组织目前预计2009年将下降-3.6%，此前为-3.9%，2010年将恢复0.9%的正增长，随后上调0.7%。欧元区出现了主要的调整，德国和法国在第二季度都转为正增长。在发展中国家，中国2009年的增长率从7.2%提高到7.5%。2010年，发展中亚洲仍将是主要增长地区。2009年世界石油需求预计将萎缩160万桶/日至8410万桶/日。2010年，全球需求预计将在连续两年下降后恢复增长，增长50万桶/日至8460万桶/日。这两个数字与上一份报告持平。鉴于美国消费的显著改善，预计8月份经合组织石油需求仅下降90万桶/日，高于上个月的-180万桶/日，而非经合组织石油需求预计将小幅上升70万桶/日。2010年，随着美国消费恢复正数，经合组织石油需求预计将小幅收缩30万桶/日。明年的需求增长预计将由中国以30万桶/日的速度放缓，其次是中东和印度，分别以20万桶/日和10万桶/日的速度增长。2009年，非欧佩克国家的石油供应量预计平均为5080万桶/日，比上一年增加340吨/日，表明较上一次评估增加了70吨/日。2010年，非欧佩克国家的石油供应量预计将达到5120万桶/日，比上一年增长420吨/日。预计2009年欧佩克天然气和非常规天然气的平均日产量为470万桶，2010年为530万桶。8月份，欧佩克的产量为2880万桶/日，较上月增加约10万桶/日。充足的馏分油库存抑制了产品市场的人气，并掩盖了8月份其他桶组件的积极发展。随着驾驶季节的结束和最近几周汽油裂缝的放缓，炼油厂经济有可能在不久的将来继续下滑，从而鼓励炼油厂进一步削减产量。这种情况，加上秋季开始的维护计划和对蒸馏油的持续看跌情绪，将不足以支撑原油市场。8月份，欧佩克的现货供应量比上月增加了4%。随着欧洲和远东的抵达，欧佩克的航班相对稳定，而北美的航班则略高。与上月相比，8月份原油油轮市场的运费平均上涨了2%。8月份，随着原油期货合约结构的收窄，浮动储油量稳步走低。然而，由于油轮上的燃油积聚，浮式储油的产品增加了。美国商业石油库存自2008年第三季度末以来首次下降，下降2230万桶。尽管有所下降，但过剩量仍保持在约80MB，其中原油和馏分油各占约30MB。在欧洲（欧盟15国加上挪威），8月份石油库存总量增加了550万桶，达到1142万桶，仍高于五年平均水平1300万桶。在日本，商业石油库存跟随季节性趋势，7月份增长了550万桶，其中产品占总量的75%。初步数据显示，石油输出国组织（OPEC）8月份的原油需求量将进一步增加，2009年的平均需求量预计为2850万桶/日，与上一份报告持平，同比下降230万桶/日。2010年，欧佩克原油的平均需求量预计为2810万桶/日，较上一次评估上升约8万桶/日，降幅为50万桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket surged by a significant $6.76/b or 10% compared to the previousmonth to reach $71.35/b in August. A combination of improving economic signals along with crudestockdraws in the US provided support for market sentiment in August, particularly in the latter partof the month. However, US-dollar movement against major currencies and equity market volatility,along with technical sell-offs for profit-taking, capped the upward trend keeping prices around $70/b.Although fundamentals remain weak, in the absence of a major shift in economic sentiment, currentmarket circumstances are likely to persist. The Basket price averaged $66.47/b on 14 September. The forecast for world economic growth in 2009 was revised up by 0.2 percentage points (pp) tonow stand at minus 1.2%, while 2010 was revised up by 0.1 pp to 2.5%. These adjustments weremainly due to an improvement in the global growth numbers for the second quarter supported by thefiscal and monetary stimulus. OECD is now expected to decline by minus 3.6% in 2009, comparedto a previous minus 3.9%, before returning to positive growth of 0.9% in 2010, following an upwardrevision of 0.7%. The main revisions were seen in the Euro-zone, where both Germany and Francereturned to positive growth in the second quarter. Within the Developing Countries, China has beenrevised up for 2009 from 7.2% to 7.5%. Developing Asia will remain the main growth region in 2010. World oil demand in 2009 is expected to contract by 1.6 mb/d to 84.1 mb/d. In 2010, globaldemand is forecast to return to growth following two years of consecutive declines, increasing0.5 mb/d to stand at 84.6 mb/d. Both figures are unchanged from the previous report. Given thesignificant improvement in US consumption, OECD oil demand in August is forecast to decline byonly 0.9 mb/d, up from a minus 1.8 mb/d in the previous month, while non-OECD demand isforecast to inch up by 0.7 mb/d. In 2010, OECD oil demand is forecast to see a smaller contractionof 0.3 mb/d as US consumption returns to positive. Demand growth next year is expected to be ledby China with 0.3 mb/d followed by Middle East and India with 0.2 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d respectively. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2009 is expected to average 50.8 mb/d, representing an increase of340 tb/d over the previous year, indicating an upward revision of 70 tb/d from the last assessment. In2010, non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to reach 51.2 mb/d, representing growth of 420 tb/d over theprevious year. OPEC NGLs and non-conventionals are expected to average 4.7 mb/d in 2009 and5.3 mb/d in 2010. In August, OPEC production stood at 28.8 mb/d, an increase of around 0.1 mb/dover the previous month. Ample distillate stocks have dampened sentiment in the products market and overshadowedpositive developments in other barrel components in August. With the end of the driving season andslowing gasoline cracks in recent weeks, there is a risk that refinery economics will continue to loseground in the near future, encouraging refiners to further trim runs. This situation, along with the startof autumn maintenance schedules and persisting bearish sentiment for distillates, would not besufficient to support the crude market. OPEC spot fixtures increased in August by 4% compared to the previous month. Sailings fromOPEC were relatively steady along with arrivals in Europe and the Far East, while arrivals in NorthAmerica were marginally higher. Freight rates in the crude oil tanker market increased by a marginof 2% on average in August compared to the previous month. Volumes of crude oil in floatingstorage were steady to lower in August with the narrowing of the contango structure in crude oilfutures. However, products in floating storage increased due to a buildup of fuel oil on tankers. US commercial oil stocks dropped for the first time since the end of the third quarter 2008,declining by 22.3 mb. Despite this decline, the overhang remained at around 80 mb with crude oiland distillates accounting for around 30 mb each. In Europe (EU-15 plus Norway), total oilinventories increased 5.5 mb in August to stand at 1,142 mb and remained 13 mb above the fiveyearaverage. In Japan, commercial oil stocks followed the seasonal trend and rose 5.5 mb in Julywith products accounting for 75% of the build. Preliminary data points to a further build in August.The demand of OPEC crude oil in 2009 is estimated to average 28.5 mb/d, unchanged from theprevious report and representing a decline of 2.3 mb/d from the previous year. In 2010, demand forOPEC crude is expected to average 28.1 mb/d, an upward revision of around 80,000 b/d from theprevious assessment and representing a drop of 0.5 mb/d.