2011年6月石油市场月报(2011)MOMR June 2011(2011)

石油输出国组织（OPEC）参考价格篮子5月份暴跌8.15美元，跌幅近7%，平均约为110美元/桶。这是自2010年7月以来的首次下跌，也是自2010年5月以来的最大百分比下跌，原因是市场人气看跌，引发了纸油市场的投资外流。WTI上月合约自3月中旬均价101.36美元/桶以来首次跌破100美元/桶，为2月89.74美元/桶以来的最低水平。ICE布伦特原油价格也大幅下跌8.67美元或7%，至114.42美元/桶。这是自去年7月以来的首次下跌。然而，中东和北非地区持续动荡的局势维持了价格的风险溢价。到目前为止，今年6月，OPECReference投资组合一直徘徊在110美元/桶左右，6月9日达到113.43美元/桶。

2011年世界经济增长预测仍为3.9%，但止赎权面临的挑战更加明显。美国的预测保持在2.6%不变，尽管鉴于劳动力市场疲软和工业活动放缓，发展需要密切监控。欧元区经济增长率也大体保持在1.8%不变，但仍受到主权债务担忧的严重影响。日本2011年第一季度的降幅远大于预期，因此，今年的预测从上月的负0.1%修正为负0.5%。虽然亚洲发展中国家的工业活动正在减速，但预计2011年该地区对全球增长的贡献最大，中国增长9.0%，印度增长8.1%。

预测2011年世界石油需求将增长140万桶/日，前一年增长210万桶/日。有几个因素继续影响全世界的石油需求。日本地震继续影响石油需求预测。此外，美国最新月度石油数据显示，石油消费比预期的要弱。相比之下，中国经济持续强劲增长，导致石油使用量增加，在一定程度上抵消了美国经济增长乏力的影响。

非欧佩克国家的石油供应预计在2011年将增加70万桶/日，较上一份报告略有上升。预计2010年非欧佩克国家的石油供应增长仍保持在110万桶/日的水平不变。预计2011年欧佩克天然气和非常规石油的平均供应量为530万桶/日，比上一年增加了40万桶/日。据第二来源估计，今年5月，欧佩克原油产量平均为2897万桶/日，比上月增加171吨/日。

产品市场自5月中旬以来一直受到影响，原因是在驾驶季节开始时汽油需求低于预期，以及美国汽油库存在经过数周的库存平仓后增加。然而，这一令人失望的局面已被一些地区的桶底涨幅部分抵消，使得利润率保持健康。展望未来，预计需求将随着驾驶季节的开始而改善，预计中国的发电用汽油需求将增加。这可能会鼓励全球炼油厂运营量的增加，有可能增加对原油市场的支持。

5月份脏货现货运价涨跌互现，超大型油轮和阿芙拉型油轮运价下降，苏伊士型油轮运价略有上升。对船舶的需求减少和高吨位可用性影响了我国的船舶费率。清洁现货运价较上月下降3.3%，主要是由于炼油厂的维护。今年5月，欧佩克的现货供应量较上月下降了7.4%，来自欧佩克的船运量略高，抵达美国的船运量上升了7.9%。

美国5月份的商业库存增加了2040万件。建造分为成品油和原油，分别增加了1310万桶和730万桶。有了这个数字，美国商业石油库存比历史平均水平高出1250万桶。4月份最新数据显示，日本商业石油库存强劲增长1820万桶，其中原油和成品油分别增长710万桶和1100万桶。日本石油库存出现盈余，历史趋势为650万桶。

预计2010年欧佩克原油需求为2960万桶/日，比上一份报告高出约10万桶/日。经过这一调整，欧佩克原油需求量比2009年高出约40万桶/日。2011年，预计欧佩克原油的需求量平均为2990万桶/日，较上年增加约30万桶/日，并较上一次评估略有调整。

 The OPEC Reference Basket plunged by $8.15 or almost 7% in May to average around $110/b.This decline – which was the first since July 2010 and the largest in percentage terms since May2010 – was attributed to bearish market sentiment, which triggered an outflow of investment fromthe paper oil market. The WTI front-month contract fell below $100/b for the first time since midMarchto average $101.36/b, the lowest since February’s $89.74/b. ICE Brent also declined sharplyby $8.67 or 7% to average $114.42/b. This represents the first drop since last July. However,continued unrest in the MENA region maintained a risk premium in prices. So far in June, the OPECReference Basket has hovered around $110/b, reaching $113.43/b on 9 June.

  The world economic growth forecast for 2011 remains at 3.9%, but challenges to the forecasthave become more pronounced. The US forecast remains unchanged at 2.6%, althoughdevelopments require close monitoring given the weakening labour market and slower industrialactivity. Euro-zone growth also remains broadly unchanged at 1.8%, but continues to be significantlychallenged by sovereign debt concerns. Japan experienced a much larger-than-expected decline inthe 1Q11 and, as a result, this year’s forecast has been revised to minus 0.5% from minus 0.1% lastmonth. While industrial activity is decelerating in Developing Asia, the region is still expected tocontribute the most to global growth in 2011, with China growing by 9.0% and India by 8.1%. 

 World oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2011, following growth of 2.1 mb/d in theprevious year. Several factors continue to impact oil demand worldwide. The Japanese earthquakecontinues to impact on oil demand estimates. Additionally, the latest monthly US oil data showedmuch weaker oil consumption than anticipated. In contrast, China’s economy continued to growstrongly resulting in increased oil usage, offsetting to some degree the weaker growth in the US.

  Non-OPEC oil supply is now projected to increase by 0.7 mb/d in 2011, following a minor upwardrevision from the last report. Estimated non-OPEC supply growth in 2010 remains unchanged at1.1 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and nonconventional oils are expected to average 5.3 mb/d in 2011, a gainof 0.4 mb/d over the previous year. In May, estimated OPEC crude oil production averaged28.97 mb/d, according to secondary sources, an increase of 171 tb/d over the previous month. 

Product markets have been impacted since the middle of May by weaker-than-expected gasolinedemand at the start of the driving season and a stock build in US gasoline after several weeks ofinventory draws. However, this disappointing situation has been partially offset by gains at thebottom of the barrel in some regions, allowing margins to remain healthy. Looking ahead, demand isexpected to improve with the start of the driving season and expected higher gasoil demand forpower generation in China. This could encourage an increase in refinery runs across the globe,potentially adding support to the crude market. 

 Dirty spot freight rates were mixed in May with VLCC and Aframax rates decreasing, while Suezmaxrates increased slightly. Lower demand for vessels and high tonnage availability affected rates inMay. Clean spot freight rates decreased by 3.3% over the previous month, mainly due to refinerymaintenance. In May, OPEC spot fixtures decreased by 7.4% compared to the previous month.Sailings from OPEC were marginally higher and arrivals in the US gained 7.9%. 

 US commercial inventories rose 20.4 mb in May. The build was divided between products andcrude which increased by 13.1 mb and 7.3 mb respectively. With this build, US commercial oilinventories stood at 12.5 mb above the historical average. The most recent data for April shows thatcommercial oil inventories in Japan rose strongly by 18.2 mb, with crude and products showing anincrease of 7.1 mb and 11.0 mb respectively. Japanese oil inventories showed a surplus with thehistorical trend at 6.5 mb. 

The demand for OPEC crude in 2010 is estimated at 29.6 mb/d, around 0.1 mb/d higher than theprevious report. With this adjustment, the demand for OPEC crude stood at about 0.4 mb/d higherthan 2009 level. In 2011, the demand from OPEC crude is expected to average 29.9 mb/d,representing an increase of about 0.3 mb/d from the previous year and a slight adjustment over theprevious assessment.