2017年10月石油市场月报(2017)MOMR October 2017(2017)

原油价格变动9月份，欧佩克参考价格篮子升至53.44美元/桶，为2015年7月以来的最高值。原油期货价格也出现上涨，ICE布伦特原油均价高于55美元/桶，越来越多的证据表明，石油市场正在走向重新平衡。地缘政治紧张局势和较低的馏分油库存也推高了价格。9月份，ICE布伦特原油平均价格为55.51美元/桶，上涨3.64美元，而NYMEX WTI原油平均价格上涨1.82美元，至49.88美元/桶。对冲基金在ICE布伦特和NYMEX WTI原油期货和期权中的净多头头寸增加了近20万份合约。截至本月底，布伦特原油合约曲线在2021年12月转为反向供应。糖醋价差在亚洲和欧洲显著扩大。世界经济在世界经济中的增长继续改善，2017年的预测从上个月报告中的3.5%修正为3.6%。同样，2018年的预测也从3.4%调高至3.5%。这一增长势头在所有经济体中都很明显，特别是经合组织（OECD），OECD在2017年增长了2.2%，2018年增长了2.1%。美国在2018年的增长率被修正为2.3%，同期的EUto为1.9%。俄罗斯也看到了2018年的上调，目前为1.6%，而上一份报告中为1.4%。印度和中国在2017年和2018年的增长预期均保持不变。2017年世界石油需求增长预计将增加150万桶/日，较上一份报告向上修正约30吨/日，主要反映最近的数据显示经济活动有所改善。积极修正的主要原因是欧洲经合组织地区和中国的石油需求高于预期。2018年，由于世界经济，特别是中国和俄罗斯的经济前景不断改善，世界石油需求预计将增长140万桶/日，较上一份报告上升了30吨/日。2017年，世界石油供应预计将增长70万桶/日，在上次报告的基础上向下修正0.1 m/bd之后。2018年，非欧佩克石油供应的增长率下降了60 tb/d，降至90万桶/d。2018年，欧佩克天然气和非常规液体产量平均为650万桶/d，增长了20万桶/d，与当年的增长基本一致。根据第二来源的数据，9月份，欧佩克原油产量增加了88tb/d，达到平均3275万桶/d。大西洋盆地的产品市场和炼油业务9月份进一步改善，因为石油需求的上升支撑了石油市场的最高点。由于需求旺盛、库存枯竭以及地区炼油厂的维护，全球中间馏分油市场继续改善。然而，在亚洲和欧洲市场，低需求和高库存水平带来了一些压力。预计产品市场将在17年第4季度从冬季燃料的健康需求中得到支持。油轮市场9月份脏船平均现货运价较上月有所上升，受多条交易航线活动增强的支持。较高的阿芙拉型油轮运价是该轮运力减弱的主要驱动力，而超大型油轮和苏伊士型油轮的平均运价则表现出较低的增长。然而，油轮市场仍然受到船舶供应过剩的影响，这往往限制了费率的上涨。在清洁油轮市场，现货运价也显示出积极的发展，主要归因于苏伊士西部市场的强劲，因为主题油轮的吨位需求增加。此外，及时的更换也进一步支持了运价。受冬季季节性需求的支撑，预计2007年第四季度现货运价将走强。8月份，经合组织（OECD）商业石油库存下降，至2996亿桶。在这个水平上，经合组织的商业石油库存比最近五年的平均水平高出171MB。原油和成品油库存分别比季节性正常水平高出约146MB和25MB。从远期覆盖天数来看，8月份石油商品库存为63.2天，比最近五年的平均水平高出2.6天。根据当前全球石油供需平衡，2017年欧佩克原油预计为3280万桶/日，比2016年高出约60万桶/日。同样，预计2018年欧佩克原油日产量为3310万桶，比2017年高出约130万桶。

Crude Oil Price MovementsThe OPEC Reference Basket rose to $53.44/b in September, its highest value since July 2015. Crude futuresprices also saw gains, with ICE Brent averaging above the $55/b, supported by increasing evidence that the oilmarket is heading toward rebalancing. Geopolitical tensions and lower distillates stocks also pushed prices higher.ICE Brent averaged $55.51/b in September, a gain of $3.64, while NYMEX WTI increased $1.82 to average$49.88/b. Hedge funds raised net long position in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI futures and options by almost200,000 contracts. At the end of the month, the Brent crude contract curve had flipped into backwardation throughDecember 2021. The sweet/sour spread widened significantly in Asia and Europe.World EconomyGrowth in the world economy continues to improve, with the forecast for 2017 revised up to 3.6% from 3.5%in last month’s report. Similarly, the 2018 forecast has been adjusted higher to 3.5% from 3.4%. Theimproving momentum is visible in all economies, particularly the OECD, which is seen growing by 2.2% in2017 and by an upwardly revised 2.1% in 2018. US growth in 2018 has been revised up to 2.3% and the EUto 1.9% for the same year. Russia has also seen an upward revision for 2018 to now stand at 1.6%,compared to 1.4% in the previous report. Growth expectations for India and China were left unchanged forboth 2017 and 2018.World Oil DemandWorld oil demand growth in 2017 is now expected to increase by 1.5 mb/d, representing an upward revisionof around 30 tb/d from last previous report, mainly reflecting recent data showing an improvement ineconomic activities. Positive revisions were primarily a result of higher-than-expected oil demand from theOECD region and China. In 2018, world oil demand is anticipated to grow by 1.4 mb/d, following an upwardadjustment of 30 tb/d over the previous report, due to the improving economic outlook in the world economy,particularly China and Russia.World Oil SupplyNon-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by 0.7 mb/d in 2017, following a downward revision of 0.1 m/bdfrom the previous report. In 2018, the growth in non-OPEC oil supply saw a downward revision of 60 tb/d tostand at 0.9 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids production are seen averaging 6.5 mb/d in2018, representing an increase of 0.2 mb/d, broadly in line with growth in the current year. In September,OPEC crude oil production increased by 88 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 32.75 mb/d.Product Markets and Refining OperationsProduct markets in the Atlantic Basin improved further in September as the top of the barrel saw support fromhigher gasoline demand. Middle distillate markets continue to improve globally on the back of healthy demand,depleted stocks and along with regional refinery maintenance. However, the bottom of the barrel in Asia andEurope saw some pressure on low demand and high inventory levels. Product markets are expected to seesupport in 4Q17 from healthy demand for winter fuels.Tanker MarketAverage dirty vessel spot freight rates rose in September, compared to the previous month, supported byenhanced activity across several trading routes. Higher Aframax rates were the main driver behind the strength insentiment, while average VLCC and Suezmax freight rates showed lesser growth. However, the tanker marketstill suffers from oversupply of ships which often cap rates gains. In the clean tanker market, spot freight ratesshowed also a positive development mostly attributed to stronger west of Suez market as tonnage demand in theMediterranean increased. Additionally, prompt replacements gave a further support to freight rates. Spot freightrates are expected to strengthen in 4Q17 supported by winter seasonal demand.Stock MovementsTotal OECD commercial oil stocks fell in August to stand at 2,996 mb. At this level, OECD commercial oilstocks are 171 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products stocks indicate a surplus ofaround 146 mb and 25 mb above the seasonal norm, respectively. In terms of days of forward cover, OECDcommercial stocks stand at 63.2 days in August, 2.6 days higher than the latest five-year average.Balance of Supply and DemandBased on the current global oil supply/demand balance, OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated at 32.8 mb/d,around 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2016. Similarly, OPEC crude in 2018 is projected at 33.1 mb/d, about0.3 mb/d higher than in 2017.