2014年6月石油市场月报(2014)MOMR June 2014(2014)

原油价格变动

在原油市场人气趋稳的情况下，欧佩克5月份参考价格篮子上涨1.17美元，至105.44美元/桶。ICE布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.15美元，至109.24美元/桶，NymexWTI原油期货价格下跌24美元，至101.79美元/桶。布伦特原油期货价格在上个月收于6.05美元/桶的7个月低点后，本月底的平均价差约为7.45美元/桶。

世界经济

2014年和2013年世界经济增长率保持不变，分别为3.4%和2.9%。经合组织主要经济体也没有出现这种情况。预计经合组织2014年的增长率为2.0%。对中国和印度的预测也保持不变，分别为7.5%和5.6%。在新兴经济体增长势头放缓之际，随着工业化国家面临一些不利因素，近期出现了增长预测的风险。

世界石油需求

预计2014年世界石油需求将增加114万桶/日，与上个月的预测一致。今年石油需求增长的一半以上来自中国和中东。预计2013年世界石油需求增长也保持不变，为105万桶/日。

世界石油供应

2014年，非欧佩克国家的石油供应增长目前为144万桶/日，较上一份报告上升了约60吨/日。增长主要来自美国、加拿大和巴西。2014年，美国的液体供应预计将增长0.95百万桶/日，达到1213百万桶/日。2013年非欧佩克国家的供应增长预期保持不变，为135百万桶/日。欧佩克国家天然气产量预计2014年平均为581百万桶/日。5月份，按二级来源计算的原油产量平均为2976万桶/日，比一个月前增加了142吨/日。

产品市场和炼油业务

随着美国驾驶季节的开始，大西洋盆地的产品市场得到了汽油需求增加的支持，尽管炼油厂的高产量和汽油库存的增加已经对利润率造成了压力。5月份，由于中间馏分油和汽油裂缝的蔓延，亚洲市场失去了优势，这抵消了桶底的积极表现。

油轮市场

5月份油轮市场情绪喜忧参半，所有报告航线的超大型油轮运价均下降，苏伊士型油轮和阿芙拉型油轮运价则较前一个月持平。Tankerson所有肮脏的部门都受到市场活动的影响，而与上月相比，清洁现货运费平均下降了4%。

股票变动

经合组织（OECD）4月份的商业库存大幅上升，但仍比五年平均水平低8000万桶。原油和产品分别出现1600万桶和6400万桶的赤字，就远期覆盖率而言，经合组织商业库存为57.5天。初步数据显示，5月份美国商业石油库存总量增加1750万桶，与5年平均水平持平。原油库存比五年平均水平高出1600万桶，而产量则低于1600万桶。

供需平衡

2013年，欧佩克原油需求与上一份报告持平，为3010万桶/日，较上一年减少40万桶/日。2014年，欧佩克原油需求量预测值下调了10万桶/日，至2970万桶/日，较上年下降了40万桶/日。

Crude Oil Price Movements 

The OPEC Reference Basket increased by $1.17 to stand at $105.44/b in May amidfirming sentiment in the crude oil market. ICE Brent rose $1.15 to $109.24/b, while NymexWTI slipped 24 to $101.79/b. The Brent-WTI spread ended the month at an averagearound $7.45/b, after settling at a seven-month low of $6.05/b in the previous month. 

World Economy 

World economic growth figures remain unchanged at 3.4% for 2014 and 2.9% in 2013. Norevisions have been made in the major OECD economies. OECD growth is forecast at2.0% in 2014. The forecasts for China and India also remain unchanged at 7.5% and5.6%, respectively. Risks to the growth forecast have emerged recently as industrialisedeconomies are facing some headwinds, amid slowing momentum in the emergingeconomies. 

World Oil Demand 

World oil demand is expected to increase by 1.14 mb/d in 2014, in line with the previousmonth’s forecast. More than half of oil demand growth this year is seen coming from Chinaand the Middle East. Estimated world oil demand growth in 2013 was also left unchangedat 1.05 mb/d. 

World Oil Supply 

Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2014 now stands at 1.44 mb/d, representing an upwardrevision of around 60 tb/d from the previous report. Growth is seen coming mainly from theUS, Canada, and Brazil. US liquids supply in 2014 is projected to grow by 0.95 mb/d toreach 12.13 mb/d. The 2013 non-OPEC supply growth estimate was left unchanged at1.35 mb/d. OPEC NGL production is forecast to average 5.81 mb/d in 2014. In May, OPECcrude production according to secondary sources averaged 29.76 mb/d, an increase of142 tb/d from a month ago. 

Product Markets and Refining Operations 

Product markets in the Atlantic Basin received support from increasing gasoline demandwith the start of the US driving season, although higher refinery runs and increasinggasoline inventories have pressured margins. The Asian market lost ground in May due toweakening middle distillates and gasoline crack spreads, which more than offset thepositive performance of the bottom of the barrel. 

Tanker Market 

Tanker market sentiment was mixed in May, with VLCC rates dropping on all reportedroutes, while Suezmax and Aframax freight rates were flat from a month before. Tankerson all dirty segments suffered from low market activities, while clean spot freight ratesdeclined by 4% on average, compared to the previous month. 

Stock Movements 

OECD commercial inventories rose sharply in April, but still remained 80 mb below thefive-year average. Crude and products showed deficits of 16 mb and 64 mb, respectively.In terms of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 57.5 days. Preliminary datashows that US total commercial oil stocks rose by 17.5 mb in May, remaining in line withthe five-year average. Crude stocks were 16 mb over the five-year average, while productswere 16 mb below. 

Balance of Supply and Demand 

Demand for OPEC crude remained unchanged in 2013 from the previous report to stand at30.1 mb/d, representing a decrease of 0.4 mb/d compared with the previous year. Theforecast for required OPEC crude in 2014 was revised down by 0.1 mb/d to stand at29.7 mb/d, a decline of 0.4 mb/d from the previous year.