2011年7月石油市场月报(2011)MOMR July 2011(2011)

石油市场亮点

石油输出国组织（OPEC）的参考价格篮子在6月份仍不稳定，波动幅度在102-114美元/桶之间。按月度计算，该篮子连续第二个月下跌，平均价格为109.04美元/桶，比上个月下降了90美元。由于许多地区宏观经济信心减弱，以及国际能源机构决定从战略储备中释放石油的临时影响，期货价格也下跌。纽约商品交易所（Nymex）WTI前一个月进一步下跌5美元或5%，至96.29美元/桶的平均水平。冰布伦特原油价格也有所下降，但速度有所放缓，原因是北海轻质甜味原油供应减少，生产受到限制。受此影响，布伦特原油在西德州的价差在每月约17.60美元/桶的基础上跃升至创纪录高位。7月初，由于投机性活动减少和经济数据走弱，市场仍不稳定。7月11日，该篮子价格为111.35美元/桶。

在美国、日本和欧元区做出调整后，2011年世界经济增长预测仍为3.9%。发展中国家的增长保持不变，今年中国增长9.0%，印度增长8.1%。2012年，世界经济预计增长4.1%，略高于2011年。经合组织预计增长2.5%，而今年增长2.1%。经合组织的增长受到日本经济复苏的支持，日本经济预计将增长2.5%。预计美国经济增长率将高达2.9%，而欧元区经济增长率因计划采取紧缩措施而放缓至1.5%。预计发展中国家的强劲扩张将有所缓解，中国的增长率预计为8.5%，印度为7.7%。

预测2011年世界石油需求将增长136万桶/日，略低于上一份报告，因为不稳定的全球经济增加了预测的风险。2012年，全球石油需求预计将以略低于132万桶/日的速度增长。全球经济复苏在经合组织（OECD）范围内一直面临挑战，增加了明年预测的不确定性。美国汽油需求预计将恢复正常增长模式；不过，这仍将是影响石油需求预测的主要因素。日本核能发电的中断也可能在明年增加石油消费。

非欧佩克国家的供应预计在2011年将增加60万桶/日，较上个月略有下降，主要是由于今年上半年的生产数据疲软。2012，非欧佩克石油供应量预计将增长0.7 Mb/d。巴西、加拿大、美国和哥伦比亚预计将是增长的主要贡献者，而挪威、英国、马来西亚和墨西哥则经历最大跌幅。2012年，欧佩克天然气和非常规石油产量达到570万桶/日，比今年增加了40万桶/日。根据第二来源，6月份，欧佩克的产量估计为2960万桶/日，比上个月增加520桶/日。

产品市场继续受到驾驶季节末需求增长低于预期的影响。轻馏分油的看跌情绪进一步受到全球石化行业对英纳法的需求急剧下降的推动。桶底的改善部分抵消了托普夫桶令人失望的表现。展望未来，夏季需求的预期增长可能会被炼油厂更高的产量抵消，从而限制产品市场的任何上升压力。

随着超大型油轮运价上涨，6月份油轮市场涨跌互现，苏伊士型油轮和阿芙拉型油轮的现货运价则有所下降。中国的活动支持了超大型油轮运价的增长，而有限的活动以及过剩的吨位供应影响了苏伊士型油轮和阿芙拉型油轮市场。6月份产品现货运价下跌18%，反映出活动减少。上个月欧佩克的航行量增加了1%。

美国商业库存在6月份又增加了410万件。产量增加1940万桶，原油库存减少1520万桶。五年平均盈余为710万英镑。在日本，5月份的最新数据显示，商业石油库存减少了70万桶。原油和产品价格走势喜忧参半，原油价格上涨170万桶，产品总库存下降240万桶。日本石油库存比五年平均水平低190万桶。

预计2011年欧佩克原油需求为3000万桶/日，比上一份报告高出约10万桶/日。这表明比上一年增加了0.4 mb/d。2012年，世界石油需求、非欧佩克石油供应和欧佩克天然气需求的初步预测显示，欧佩克原油需求为3030万桶/日，比今年增加了30万桶/日。然而，这些预测可能会受到不可预见事件的影响。

Oil Market Highlights

  The OPEC Reference Basket remained volatile in June, moving within a wide range of$102-$114/b. In monthly terms, the Basket fell for the second consecutive month to average$109.04/b, down 90 from the previous month. Futures prices also declined as macroeconomicsentiment weakened across many regions, as well as on the temporary impact of the IEA’s decisionto release oil from strategic reserves. The Nymex WTI front-month fell a further $5 or 5% to average$96.29/b. ICE Brent also declined but at a slower pace, due to lower supplies of light sweet crudeand constraints in North Sea production. As a result, the Brent spread over WTI jumped to a recordhigh on a monthly basis of around $17.60/b. In early July, the market remained volatile due toreduced speculative activity and weaker economic data. The Basket stood at $111.35/b on 11 July. 

 The forecast for world economic growth in 2011 remains at 3.9% following off-setting revisions inthe US, Japan and Euro-zone. Growth in the developing countries remains unchanged, with Chinagrowing by 9.0% and India by 8.1% this year. In 2012, the world economy is expected to grow by4.1%, slightly higher than in 2011. The OECD is forecast to grow by 2.5%, compared with this year’sgrowth of 2.1%. OECD growth is supported by the recovery in the Japanese economy, which isexpected to expand by 2.5%. US growth is forecast at a higher 2.9%, while growth in the Euro-zoneis seen slowing to 1.5%, due to planned austerity measures. The strong expansion in the developingcountries is expected to ease somewhat, with China forecast at 8.5% and India at 7.7%. 

 World oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.36 mb/d in 2011, slightly lower than in the previousreport, as the unsteady global economy has added risks to the forecast. In 2012, global oil demandis expected to grow at a slightly lower 1.32 mb/d. The global economic recovery has been facingchallenges across the OECD, adding to the uncertainties to next year’s forecast. US gasolinedemand is expected to be back in its normal growing mode; however it will remain a major factoraffecting oil demand projections. The disruption in nuclear power generation in Japan could alsoincrease oil consumption in the coming year. 

 Non-OPEC supply is expected to increase by 0.6 mb/d in 2011, representing a marginal downwardrevision from last month, primarily due to weaker production data in the first half of the year. In 2012,non-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by 0.7 mb/d. Brazil, Canada, the US, and Colombia areforecast to be the main contributors to the growth, while Norway, the UK, Malaysia, and Mexico areseen experiencing the largest declines. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are seen reaching5.7 mb/d in 2012, indicating an increase of 0.4 mb/d over this year. In June, according to secondarysources, OPEC production is estimated at 29.60 mb/d, a gain of 520 tb/d over the previous month.

 Product markets continued to be impacted by weaker-than-expected demand growth at the onsetof the driving season. The bearish sentiment for light distillates was further fuelled by a sharp drop innaphtha demand from the petrochemical sector globally. The disappointing performance at the topof the barrel was partially offset by improvements at the bottom. Looking ahead, the expectedincrease in summer demand is likely to be offset by higher refinery runs, limiting any upwardpressure on product markets. 

 The tanker market was mixed in June as VLCC rates increased, while Suezmax and Aframax spotrates declined. Chinese activity supported the increase in VLCC rates while limited activities as wellas excess tonnage availability influenced the Suezmax and Aframax markets. Product spot freightrates fell 18% in June, reflecting reduced activities. OPEC sailing increased by 1% last month. 

 US commercial inventories rose a further 4.1 mb in June. The build was attributed to productswhich rose 19.4 mb, while crude stocks fell 15.2 mb. The surplus with the five-year average stood at7.1 mb. In Japan, the most recent data for May shows that commercial oil inventories declinedslightly by 0.7 mb. Crude and products showed a mixed picture with crude up 1.7 mb and totalproducts inventories down 2.4 mb. Japanese oil stocks stood at 1.9 mb below the five-year average. 

 The demand for OPEC crude in 2011 is estimated at 30.0 mb/d, around 0.1 mb/d higher than inthe previous report. This indicates a rise of 0.4 mb/d over the previous year. In 2012, the initialforecasts for world oil demand, non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs indicate a demand for OPECcrude of 30.3 mb/d, an increase of 0.3 mb/d over the current year. However, these forecasts couldbe impacted by unforeseen events.