2017年1月石油市场月报(2017)MOMR January 2017(2017)

原油价格变动              

去年12月，欧佩克的一篮子参考原油价格上涨近20%，至51.67美元/桶，18个月来首次收于50美元/桶以上。相比之下，这一篮子石油的年平均价值为40.76美元/桶，创下了12年多来的最低水平。欧佩克与非欧佩克之间的历史性合作消息传出后，石油综合体大幅上涨。ICE布伦特原油期货价格上涨7.84美元，至54.92美元/桶，NYMEX WTI原油期货价格飙升6.40美元，至52.17美元/桶。今年，ICE布伦特原油期货价格和NYMEX WTI原油期货价格分别为45.13美元/桶和43.47美元/桶，为2004年以来最低。              

世界经济              

2016年和2017年世界经济增长率分别上调0.1个百分点至3.0%和3.2%。继2016年增长1.7%后，经合组织2017年的增长率修正为1.8%。中国2016年和2017年的预测分别保持在6.7%和6.2%，而印度2016年的经济增长则略微下调至7.2%，随后是2017年的7.1%。经过两年的衰退，预计俄罗斯和巴西将在2017年复苏，分别增长0.9%和0.4%。              

世界石油需求             

2016年，全球石油需求增长预计为125万桶/日，此前对约10万亿桶/日进行了小幅上调，主要反映出经合组织亚太和欧洲的表现好于预期。2016年，全球石油需求平均为9444万桶/日。2017年，世界石油需求预计将稳定增长116万桶/日，至平均95.60万桶/日。这意味着10 tb/d的增长，主要是由于经合组织（OECD）欧洲在2017年第一季度的石油需求预计会上升。              

世界石油供应              

目前，预计2016年非欧佩克国家石油供应将萎缩0.71百万桶/日，此前该国石油供应量上调至70万亿桶/日，主要受挪威、俄罗斯和美国经济增长高于预期的推动。2017年，非欧佩克国家的石油供应量预计将增长12万桶/日，即向下调整18万桶/日。对俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦、中国、刚果和挪威的向下调整部分抵消了对美国供应量的向上调整23万桶/日。欧佩克天然气产量继去年增长15万桶/日后，预计2017年将增长15万桶/日。根据第二来源，去年12月，欧佩克的产量下降了221 tb/d，平均为3308 mb/d。              

产品市场和炼油业务              

2016年12月，大西洋流域的产品市场表现喜忧参半。美国炼油利润率受到汽油裂缝的支撑，汽油裂缝是由于对拉美出口强劲，国内需求健康所致。欧洲炼油厂利润率走弱，原因是尽管天气寒冷，但汽油出口机会放缓，中间环节缺乏支持。在亚洲，产品供过于求打压了利润率。              

油轮市场              

2016年12月，油船现货运价在脏舱和清洁舱市场均出现上涨。超大型油轮、苏伊士型油轮和阿芙拉型油轮的平均现货运价分别较上月上涨18%、25%和1%。东部港口延误、节前活动和一些地区的吨位供应导致运价上涨。苏伊士东部和西部地区12月份的平均净运费分别增长了19%和26%。与去年同月相比，清洁和脏点运费也平均增加。    股票变动              

2016年11月，经合组织商业股总规模下降至299300万股，比最新五年平均水平高出27100万股。原油和产品库存分别出现19000万桶和8200万桶的盈余。从远期覆盖天数来看，11月经合组织商业股为63.7天，比季节平均水平高出约5.2天。              

供需平衡              

据估计，2016年欧佩克原油需求为3120万桶/日，比2015年高出约180万桶/日。2017年，欧佩克原油需求预计为3210万桶/日，2016年进一步增加90万桶/多佛。

Crude Oil Price Movements 

The OPEC Reference Basket jumped nearly 20% in December to $51.67/b, ending above $50/b forthe first time in 18 months. In contrast, the Basket’s yearly average value came in at its lowest in morethan 12 years at $40.76/b. The oil complex surged on news of the historic cooperation between OPECand non-OPEC. ICE Brent ended $7.84 higher at $54.92/b, while NYMEX WTI soared $6.40 to$52.17/b. For the year, ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI averaged $45.13/b and $43.47/b, respectively, thelowest since 2004. 

World Economy 

World economic growth for 2016 and 2017 has been revised up by 0.1 percentage point to stand at3.0% and 3.2%, respectively. The OECD growth in 2017 was revised higher to 1.8%, following growthof 1.7% in 2016. China’s forecast remains at 6.7% in 2016 and 6.2% in 2017, while India’s growth in2016 was revised down slightly to 7.2%, followed by growth of 7.1% in 2017. After two years ofrecession, both Russia and Brazil are forecast to recover in 2017 with growth of 0.9% and 0.4%respectively.

World Oil Demand

 Global oil demand growth in 2016 is expected at 1.25 mb/d after a marginal upward revision of around10 tb/d, mainly reflecting the better-than-expected performance in OECD Asia Pacific and Europe.World oil demand is expect to average 94.44 mb/d in 2016. In 2017, world oil demand is anticipated torise by a solid 1.16 mb/d y-o-y to average 95.60 mb/d. This represents an upward revision of 10 tb/d,mostly due to an expected uptick in oil requirements in OECD Europe in 1Q17. 

World Oil Supply 

Non-OPEC oil supply in 2016 is now expected to show a contraction of 0.71 mb/d, following an upwardrevision of 70 tb/d, mainly driven by higher-than-expected growth in Norway, Russia and the US. In2017, non-OPEC oil supply is projected to grow by 0.12 mb/d, representing a downward adjustment of0.18 mb/d. Downward revisions to Russia, Kazakhstan, China, Congo and Norway, were partiallyoffset by a 0.23 mb/d upward adjustment to US supply. OPEC NGL production is forecast to grow by0.15 mb/d in 2017, following growth of 0.15 mb/d last year. In December, OPEC production decreasedby 221 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 33.08 mb/d.

 Product Markets and Refining Operations 

Product markets showed a mixed performance in the Atlantic Basin in December 2016. US refinerymargins were supported by the recovery seen in the gasoline cracks on the back of healthy domesticdemand amid stronger exports to Latin America. Refinery margins in Europe weakened due to slowergasoline export opportunities and a lack of support at the middle of the barrel, despite the colderweather. In Asia, product oversupply weighed on margins. 

Tanker Market

 Tanker spot freight rates in December 2016 rose in both dirty and clean segments of the market.Average VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax spot freight rates rose by 18%, 25% and 1%, respectively, froma month before. The higher rates were driven by delays in eastern ports, pre-holiday activities andthinning tonnage supply in some areas. Average clean spot freight rates for both East and West ofSuez increased in December by 19% and 26% m-o-m, respectively. Compared to the same month lastyear, both clean and dirty spot freight also increased on average. 

Stock Movements 

Total OECD commercial stocks fell in November 2016 to stand at 2,993 mb, some 271 mb above thelatest five-year average. Crude and product inventories showed surpluses of 190 mb and 82 mb,respectively. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks in November stood at63.7 days, some 5.2 days higher than the seasonal average. 

Balance of Supply and Demand 

Demand for OPEC crude in 2016 is estimated to stand at 31.2 mb/d, some 1.8 mb/d higher than in2015. In 2017, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, a further increase of 0.9 mb/dover 2016.