2012年6月石油市场月报(2012)MOMR June 2012(2012)

石油市场亮点

石油输出国组织（OPEC）的参考价格指数5月份连续第二个月下跌至108.07美元/桶，跌幅为10.11美元或9.4%，为2008年12月以来最大的月环比跌幅。5月份，期货价格也大幅下跌。纽约商品交易所WTI指数较上月下跌8.63美元或8.4%，ICE布伦特指数连续第二个月下跌超过10.20美元或8.5%。下跌背后有许多因素，包括净多头投机头寸的大规模清算、欧元区担忧加剧、经济前景转弱，全球原油库存稳步上升。6月第一周，原油期货价格大幅下跌。美国就业数据疲弱、中国制造业活动放缓和欧元区危机加深，引发了又一轮广泛的市场抛售。6月11日，ORB为97.34美元/桶。

2012年世界经济增长预期保持在3.3%不变。美国经济增长预测在略有放缓的情况下下调了0.1个百分点，至2.2%。对欧元区的预测不变，显示欧元区将收缩0.4%。日本第一季度表现强劲，因此，年增长率修正了0.2个百分点至2.0%。中国正显示出受到全球经济放缓影响的迹象，但由于预期的刺激措施，仍保持在8.2%不变。印度在第一季度经历了明显的放缓，2012年从6.9%下调至6.4%。

2012年世界石油需求增长预计为90万桶/日，与上一次报告持平。今年上半年，全球经济出现了各种发展，这给石油需求带来了很大的不确定性。下半年可能会经历更大程度的不确定性。北半球即将到来的驾驶季节可能受到汽油零售价格和经济发展的影响，导致世界石油需求进一步下降。日本核电站的关闭正导致电力部门更多地使用燃料和原油。然而，如果日本决定恢复部分核电站的运行，近期日本石油使用量的激增可能会受到影响。

2012年，非欧佩克国家的石油供应量预计将增长70万桶/日，较上一份报告上调了30吨/日，美国的强劲预期增长为支撑。预计2011年非欧佩克供应量增长为90 tb/d。预计2012年欧佩克天然气和非常规石油的平均供应量为570万桶/日，比上一年增加了40万桶/日。根据第二来源的数据，5月份，欧佩克原油平均日产量为3158万桶，比上个月下降了58tb/d。

5月份的产品市场逆转了上个月的涨幅。这主要是由于全球石油化工部门对石脑油的需求令人失望，加之大西洋盆地的汽油市场因一些关闭的炼油厂重新开工的消息而有所缓和，导致石油价格居高不下。加上亚洲维修结束后，供应方面的额外压力，这些因素导致炼油厂利润率全面下降，尽管原油价格大幅下跌。

在油轮市场，5月份污油现货运价与超大型油轮平均运价涨跌互现，苏伊士型油轮和阿芙拉型油轮平均运价则出现上涨。5月份的高吨位可用性和炼油厂维护影响率。与上月相比，东部地区的清洁现货运价下降，西部地区的清洁现货运价上升。5月份，欧佩克的现货供应量比上个月增加了12%。今年5月，欧佩克（OPEC）的出海量稳定，而美国的出海量有所增加。

5月份，美国商业石油库存增加1770万桶，比去年同期增加910万桶，比5年平均水平高出近3000万桶。这一建设归因于原油和产品，分别增加了870万桶和900万桶。在日本，最新的月度数据显示，4月份商业石油库存增加840万桶，仍比一年前减少840万桶，但与季节平均水平持平。总库存量分为原油和产品，分别增加了270万桶和570万桶

2011年欧佩克原油需求与上一份报告持平，为3010万桶/日，增长40万桶/日。2012年，欧佩克原油需求预计为2990万桶/日，较去年下降了10万桶/日，较上一份报告略有变化。

Oil Market Highlights 

The OPEC Reference Basket fell for the second straight month in May to $108.07/b, representinga decline of $10.11 or 9.4%, the largest month-to-month loss since December 2008. Futuresprices also fell sharply in May. Nymex WTI declined $8.63 or 8.4%, on top of the previous month’slosses, and ICE Brent fell by more than $10.20 or 8.5%, also down for the second month in a row.Numerous factors were behind the fall, including a massive liquidation of net-long speculativepositions, heightened Euro-zone concerns, a weakening economic outlook, and a steady rise inglobal crude stocks. In the first week of June, crude oil futures prices fell sharply. The decline cameas weak US jobs data, a slowdown in Chinese manufacturing activity and a deepening Euro-zonecrisis sparked another broad market sell-off. On 11 June the ORB stood at $97.34/b.

  World economic growth expectations for 2012 remain unchanged at 3.3%. The US growthforecast has been revised down by 0.1 percentage points (pp) to 2.2%, amid a slight slowingdown. The forecast for the Euro-zone is unchanged, showing a contraction of 0.4%. Japanenjoyed a solid first quarter and, hence, the yearly growth has been revised up by 0.2 pp to2.0%. China is showing signs of being affected by the global slow-down, but remains unchangedat 8.2% due to expected stimulus measures. India experienced a significant slow-down in thefirst quarter and 2012 has been revised down to 6.4% from 6.9%.

  World oil demand growth in 2012 is expected at 0.9 mb/d, unchanged from the previous report.The first half of this year experienced various economic developments world-wide, which placed agreat amount of uncertainty on oil demand. The second half of the year is likely to experience aneven greater degree of uncertainty. The upcoming driving season in the Northern Hemisphere mightbe affected by retail gasoline prices and economic development, leading to a further decline in worldoil demand. The shutdown of Japan’s nuclear plants is leading to more fuel and crude oil usage inthe power sector. However, should Japan decide to bring back some of its nuclear power plants intoservice, the recent surge in the country’s oil usage could be impacted. 

Non-OPEC oil supply growth is projected at 0.7 mb/d in 2012, following an upward revision of30 tb/d from the last report, supported by strong anticipated growth from the US. Estimated nonOPECsupply growth in 2011 stands at 90 tb/d. OPEC NGLs and nonconventional oils are expectedto average 5.7 mb/d in 2012, a gain of 0.4 mb/d over the previous year. In May, OPEC crude oilproduction averaged 31.58 mb/d, according to secondary sources, a decline of 58 tb/d over theprevious month.

 Product markets in May reversed the gains seen in the previous month. This was mainly due tolosses at the top of the barrel, following disappointing demand for naphtha in the petrochemicalsector worldwide, as well as from the easing in the gasoline market in the Atlantic Basin on news ofthe re-start of some closed refineries. Along with additional pressure coming from the supply sidewith the end of maintenance in Asia, these factors led to a fall in refinery margins across the board,despite the steep decline in crude oil prices. 

In the tanker market, dirty spot freight rates were mixed in May with average VLCC ratesdecreasing, while average Suezmax and Aframax rates saw gains. High tonnage availability andrefinery maintenance affected rates in May. Clean spot freight rates fell in the East and rose in theWest from the previous month. OPEC spot fixtures increased by 12% in May compared to theprevious month. Sailings from OPEC were steady in May, while arrivals in the US increased. 

US commercial oil stocks rose by 17.7 mb in May, a gain of 9.1 mb over a year ago and nearly30.0 mb higher than the five-year average. This build was attributed to both crude and products,which increased by 8.7 mb and 9.0 mb respectively. In Japan, the most recent monthly data showsthat commercial oil stocks increased by 8.4 mb in April, leaving them still at 8.4 mb below a yearago, but in line with the seasonal average. The total stock-build was divided between crude andproducts which rose by 2.7 mb and 5.7 mb respectively 

Demand for OPEC crude in 2011 remained unchanged from the previous report to stand at30.1 mb/d, indicating growth of 0.4 mb/d. In 2012, demand for OPEC crude is projected to average29.9 mb/d, representing a decline of 0.1 mb/d from last year’s level and a minor change from theprevious report.