2009年11月石油市场月报(2009)MOMR November 2009(2009)

10月份，欧佩克的一篮子参考原油价格上涨5.50美元/桶或8%，达到72.67美元/桶。在国际货币基金组织（IMF）对GDP数据进行修正后，全球石油需求的上调增强了市场的看涨情绪。美元贬值和股票价格上涨也促成了油价上涨趋势，同时美国汽油库存出现反季节性下降。11月10日，这个篮子的价格为76.50美元/桶。最近的市场波动表明，原油价格可能在不久的将来恢复到70美元的高位，价格走势继续受到经济数据和美元波动的影响。世界经济继续复苏，继2009年增长1.1%后，预计2010年将增长2.9%。预计大部分增长将来自亚洲新兴经济体。预计2009年和2010年中国经济增速分别为8.0%和8.5%，与上月持平。在史无前例的财政和货币刺激政策的推动下，预计经合组织2009年第3季度的产出将呈现正增长。不过，随着政府支持力度的减弱，私人消费支出何时会有足够的增长，还有待观察。预计2010年经合组织所有主要地区都将恢复增长，其中美国增长1.4%，欧元区增长0.5%，日本增长1.1%。多数迹象表明，2010年世界石油需求增长将走高；然而，下行风险因素凸显了谨慎的必要性。2009年世界石油需求萎缩140万桶/日，预计2010年世界石油需求将增长80万桶/日，尽管潜在的疲弱经济复苏可能会抑制未来一年的潜在需求增长。美国石油需求仍然是推动2009年需求增长的主要因素。尽管夏末的表现有所改善，但最近的数据显示，10月份的需求有所萎缩。预计非OPEC供应量将在2010增加360个TB/D，达到51.2 Mb/d。巴西、阿塞拜疆、哈萨克斯坦、加拿大和美国被视为下一年增长的主要贡献者，而墨西哥、英国和挪威预计将经历最大跌幅。预计2010年OPECNGLs和非常规石油产量将达到530万桶/日，较上年大幅增长540吨/日。据估计，2009年非欧佩克的供应量将增加410 tb/d，较之前的评估略有上升。10月份，欧佩克原油的平均产量为2899万桶/日，比上个月高出约40吨/日。由于美国产品库存减少、货运量增加以及工业部门需求相对较高，10月份产品市场情绪略有改善。然而，原油价格上涨已经压倒了产品价格的积极发展，并对炼油利润率施加了压力，特别是在大西洋盆地。尽管寒冷的冬季可能为成品油市场提供支持，并鼓励炼油厂在未来几个月增加产量，但过量的蒸馏油库存可能进一步限制炼油厂的运营，影响原油库存的变动。欧佩克9月份的现货供应量比上月增加了3%。来自欧佩克的航行相对稳定。10月，原油油轮市场的运价增长了11%，超大型油轮板块增长了17%，苏伊士型油轮板块增长了7%。10月份，油轮的原油储备量稳定在约40 mb，但油轮上储存的石油产品增加了约25 mb至90 mb。苏伊士市场以东的muchfirmer产品现货运费平均上涨2%。美国商业石油库存10月份下降1940万桶，至10890万桶，为2007年12月以来的最大跌幅。汽油和馏分油库存几乎占抽签量的一半。尽管如此，与五年平均水平相比，超额仍相当可观，约为7000万桶。原油库存下降170万桶，将超额缩小至2200万桶。虽然蒸馏出了430万桶，但悬挑仍然很大。9月份，日本商业石油库存总量逆季下降，下降了1100万桶，初步数据显示10月份进一步下降了900万桶。2009年，欧佩克原油需求量修正为70tb/d，目前为2870万桶/d，比去年增加了230万桶/d。2010年，石油输出国组织原油需求量预计平均为2850万桶/日，此前调整为110吨/日，这意味着与上一年相比下降了20万桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket surged $5.50/b or 8% in October to reach $72.67/b. The bullishsentiment in the market was strengthened by upward adjustments to world oil demand followingrevision to GDP numbers by the IMF. US dollar depreciation and rising equity prices also contributedto the upward price trend along with counter-seasonal draws in US gasoline inventories. The Basketstood at $76.50/b on 10 November. Recent market volatility suggests that crude prices are likely toremain in the high $70s in the near future with price direction continuing to be impacted by economicdata and US dollar fluctuations. The world economy continues its recovery and is now forecast to grow by 2.9% in 2010 after acontraction of 1.1% in 2009. Most of the growth is expected to come from the emerging Asianeconomies. China is forecast to grow by 8.0% and 8.5% in 2009 and 2010 respectively, unchangedfrom last month. Fuelled by the unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus, OECD output isexpected to show positive growth in the 3Q09. Still, it remains to be seen when private consumptionexpenditures will pick up sufficiently as government support fades. All major OECD regions areprojected to return to growth in 2010 with the US forecast to grow at 1.4%, the Euro-zone at 0.5%and Japan at 1.1%. Most of the signs are aiming toward higher world oil demand growth in 2010; however, downwardrisk factors highlight the need for caution. World oil demand is forecast to grow by 0.8 mb/d in 2010following a 1.4 mb/d contraction in 2009, although the potential weak economic recovery maydampen potential demand growth in the coming year. US oil demand remains the major factordriving 2009 demand growth. Despite the improved performance in late summer, recent dataindicates a contraction in demand in October. Non-OPEC supply is forecast to increase by 360 tb/d in 2010 to reach 51.2 mb/d. Brazil,Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Canada, and the US are seen to be the main contributors to next year’sgrowth, while Mexico, UK, and Norway are foreseen to experience the largest declines. OPECNGLs and non-conventional oils are projected to reach 5.3 mb/d in 2010, indicating a significantgrowth of 540 tb/d over the current year. In 2009, non-OPEC supply is estimated to increase by410 tb/d, representing a minor upward revision from the previous assessment. In October, OPECcrude production averaged 28.99 mb/d, around 40 tb/d higher than the previous month.Product market sentiment improved slightly in October due to product stock draws in the US,increasing freight movements and relatively higher demand from industrial sectors. However, risingcrude costs have overwhelmed positive developments in product prices and exerted pressure onrefining margins, especially in the Atlantic Basin. While a cold winter may provide support for productmarkets and encourage refiners to increase runs in the coming months, excessive levels of distillatestocks could further constrain refinery operations, impacting crude stock movements. OPEC spot fixtures increased in September by 3% compared to the previous month. Sailings fromOPEC were relatively steady. Freight rates in the crude oil tanker market increased by 11% inOctober with the VLCC sector increasing by 17% and Suezmax by 7%. Volumes of crude oil storedon tankers were steady at about 40 mb in October, but petroleum products stored on tankersincreased by about 25 mb to 90 mb. Product spot freight rates gained an average of 2% with a muchfirmer East of Suez market. US commercial oil stocks dropped by 19.4 mb in October to stand at 1,089 mb, the largest drawsince December 2007. Gasoline and distillate inventories accounted for almost half of the draw.Despite this draw, the overhang with the five-year average remains considerable at around 70 mb.Crude oil inventories dropped 1.7 mb, narrowing the overhang to 22 mb. Although distillates fell4.3 mb, the overhang remains large. In September, Japan total commercial oil stocks moved againstthe seasonal trend, falling 11 mb with preliminary data indicating a further decline of 9 mb inOctober.Demand for OPEC crude in 2009 was revised up 70 tb/d to now stand at 28.7 mb/d, representing adecline of 2.3 mb/d from last year. In 2010, demand for OPEC crude is expected to average28.5 mb/d, following an upward adjustment of 110 tb/d. This indicates a drop of 0.2 mb/d comparedto the previous year.