2012年5月石油市场月报(2012)MOMR May 2012(2012)

在连续三个月上涨之后，欧佩克参考篮子指数在4月份下跌，收于118.18美元/桶，跌幅为4.79美元或3.9%。由于与持续的地缘政治因素有关的风险，价格仍在上涨。篮子价值的下降是在第二季度典型的低需求季节的第一个月开始的。在供应增加和消费疲软的情况下，原油价格一年多来首次进入了持续上涨的状态。原油价格下跌的原因是成品油价格从前几个月的峰值水平回落。此外，全球供应量的增加导致库存增加，从而阻止了价格上涨。5月9日，欧佩克参考价格为109.85美元/桶。2012年世界经济增长预期保持在3.3%不变。美国继续保持强劲势头，增长预测上调0.1个百分点至2.3%。相比之下，欧元区经济继续走弱，目前预计将收缩0.4%，而上个月的预测为负0.3%。日本的经济增长预期保持在1.8%不变。随着经合组织（OECD）的这些抵消性修正，出口导向型新兴经济体的增长也发生了变化。2012年，印度预计将增长6.9%，而中国预计增长8.2%。总体而言，全球经济前景依然脆弱，欧元区不确定性加剧，新兴市场可能出现溢出效应。2012年世界石油需求增长目前为90万桶/日，与上一份报告基本持平。考虑到美国经济的稳定和日本核电站的关闭，世界石油需求增长——至少在短期内——已经停止了下降趋势，并呈现出一定的增长。非经合组织国家的石油需求也显示出轻微改善。美国即将到来的驾驶季节可能会受到汽油零售价格上涨和经济发展不确定性的影响。如果日本重新启动核电站，日本的石油使用也可能放缓。预计2012年非欧佩克的石油供应将增长60万桶/日，2011年将增长10万桶/日。这是对上一次报告50 tb/d的向上修订。对今年增长的调整主要是由于2012年第一季度公布了实际生产的初步数据，特别是美国的数据。预计2012年欧佩克天然气和非常规石油产量将比上年增加40万桶/日。据第二位消息人士估计，今年4月，欧佩克原油总产量平均为3162万桶/日，较上月增加0.32万桶/日。4月，成品油市场出现上扬，汽油趁着大西洋盆地产油人气好转，提前开季。这一点，再加上亚洲地区在炼油厂大修期间产品供应紧张的额外支持，使得全球炼油厂利润率得以提高。原油价格下跌也支撑了产品市场，4月份油轮市场涨跌互现，超大型油轮现货运价上涨，苏伊士型油轮和阿芙拉型油轮现货运价下跌。较低的吨位需求和炼油厂维护推动苏伊士型油轮和阿芙拉型油轮运价下降。超大型油轮现货运价的上涨是由更高的需求和浮动仓储要求支撑的。4月份，欧佩克的现货供应量增加了20%。石油输出国组织（OPEC）的出海量增加，北美的到港量增加。4月份，美国商业石油库存逆转了上个月的增长，减少了430万桶。美国股市仍较上年同期水平高出201万股，较五年平均水平高出3080万股。由于原油库存增加1350万桶，产品价格下跌1750万桶。在日本，最新的月度数据显示，3月份商业石油库存增长了660万桶，比一年前增加了140万桶，仍比五年平均水平低520万桶。原油库存总量增加850万桶，而产品库存下降190万桶。2011年欧佩克原油需求与上一次评估持平，为3010万桶/日，较上年增长40万桶/日。预计2012年欧佩克原油需求量平均为3000万桶/日，与上一份报告中的水平相同，并较去年下降了10万桶/日

After three consecutive monthly gains, the OPEC Reference Basket declined in April to settle at$118.18/b, representing a drop of $4.79 or 3.9%. Prices remain elevated by the risk premiumassociated with ongoing geopolitical factors. The decline in the value of the Basket came with thestart of the first month of the typically low demand season in the second quarter. Crude pricesshifted into contango for the first time in over a year amid higher supplies and weak consumption.The decline in crude oil prices occurred as refined product prices came down from the peak levelsseen in previous months. Moreover, rising global supply contributed to an increase in inventories,preventing prices from moving higher. On 9 May, the OPEC Reference Basket stood at $109.85/b.World economic growth expectations for 2012 remain unchanged at 3.3%. The US continues toenjoy solid momentum, with the growth forecast revised up by 0.1 pp to 2.3%. In contrast, the Eurozonecontinues to weaken and is now expected to contract by 0.4%, compared to the minus 0.3%forecast in the previous month. The growth forecast for Japan remains unchanged at 1.8%. Withthese offsetting revisions in the OECD, growth in the export-led emerging economies is alsounchanged. India is expected to expand by 6.9% in 2012, while China is projected to grow at a solid8.2%. Overall, the global economic outlook remains fragile, with heightened uncertainties in theEuro-zone and potential spill-over effects in the emerging markets.World oil demand growth in 2012 now stands at 0.9 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previousreport. Given the stabilization of the US economy and the shutdown of Japanese nuclear powerplants, world oil demand growth has – at least for the short-term – stopped its declining trend and isshowing some growth. Oil demand in non-OECD countries is also indicating a slight improvement.The upcoming driving season in the US might be affected by higher retail gasoline prices anduncertainty regarding economic developments. Japan’s oil usage also could slow if the country wereto restart its nuclear plants.Non-OPEC supply is forecast to grow by 0.6 mb/d in 2012, following an increase of 0.1 mb/d in2011. This represents an upward revision of 50 tb/d over the previous report. The adjustment to thisyear’s growth was mainly due to the release of preliminary 1Q12 data for actual production,particularly for the US. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils in 2012 are expected to increase by0.4 mb/d over the previous year. In April, total OPEC crude oil production, according to secondarysources, was estimated to average 31.62 mb/d, an increase of 0.32 mb/d over the previous month.Product markets showed an uptick in April with gasoline taking advantage of the improved productsentiment in the Atlantic Basin, ahead of the driving season. This, along with the additional supportfrom tight product supplies in the Asian region amid heavy refinery maintenance allowed refinerymargins to increase across the globe. The decline in crude oil prices also supported productmarkets.The tanker market saw mixed movement in April, with VLCC spot freight rates increasing andSuezmax and Aframax spot rates encountering declines. Lower tonnage demand and refinerymaintenance drove the decline in Suezmax and Aframax rates. The rise in VLCC spot freight rateswas supported by higher demand and floating storage requirements. In April, OPEC spot fixturesdecreased by 20%. Sailings from OPEC were higher and arrivals in North America increased.US commercial oil stocks in April reversed the build of the previous month, declining by4.3 mb. US stocks remain 20.1 mb above the year-ago level and 30.8 mb over the five-yearaverage. Products, which fell by 17.5 mb, were responsible for the decline, as crude stocks roseby 13.5 mb. In Japan, the most recent monthly data shows that commercial oil stocks increasedby 6.6 mb in March to stand 1.4 mb above a year ago, which was still 5.2 mb below the five-yearaverage. The total stock-build was concentrated in crude, which rose by 8.5 mb, while productinventories fell 1.9 mb.Demand for OPEC crude for 2011 remained unchanged from the previous assessment to stand at30.1 mb/d, indicating growth of 0.4 mb/d compared to the previous year. Demand for OPEC crudefor 2012 is projected to average 30.0 mb/d, the same level as in the previous report andrepresenting a decline of 0.1 mb/d from last year