2011年5月石油市场月报(2011)MOMR May 2011(2011)

石油输出国组织（OPEC）4月份参考价格篮子进一步上涨，平均为118.09美元/桶，较上月上涨8.25美元，较上年同期上涨35.76美元。中东和北非一些国家的持续发展和经济信心的改善支持了这种持续上升的趋势。纽约商品交易所（NymexWTI）和洲际交易所（ICE）布伦特（Brent）的前一个月合约平均价格分别为110.04美元/桶和123.10美元/桶，这是金融危机爆发以来的最高水平。然而，由于获利回吐引发技术性抛售，5月第一周价格经历了剧烈波动和大幅回调，下跌近17美元。此后，油价反弹，5月10日欧佩克的一揽子价格为111.48美元/桶。2011年世界经济增长预测仍保持在3.9%不变，尽管有一些抵消性的修正。美国经济最近出现了一些放缓，虽然预计将重振势头，但预测已从2.9%降至2.6%。受制造业持续扩张和国内需求改善的支持，欧元区增长率从1.5%升至1.7%。在最近的悲剧事件之后，日本经济预计仍将下降0.1%。预计2011年，亚洲发展中国家对全球经济增长贡献最大，中国增长9.0%，印度增长8.1%。由于对主权债务的担忧、全球通胀上升导致利率上升以及亚洲发展中国家的潜在过热，风险似乎仍在下降。2011年，世界石油需求预计将增长140万桶/日，与上一份报告基本持平，去年增长210万桶/日。日本地震，加上美国经济的不确定性，使得石油需求预测处于调整模式，并给今年的预测带来了负面风险。与此同时，中国的经济正以前所未有的速度增长，这对中国的消费产生了影响。由于需求趋势的抵消，目前的风险看起来几乎是平衡的。预计2011年非欧佩克石油供应将增加60万桶/日，2010年增长110万桶/日。这是对上一次报告的65 tb/d的上调。对今年增长的调整主要是由于一季度实际生产数据初步公布。预计2011年欧佩克天然气和非常规石油的平均日产量为530万桶，比上年增加了40万桶。据二级消息来源估计，4月份，欧佩克原油总产量平均为2899万桶/日，比上个月增加70吨/日。4月份，随着轻质馏分油需求强劲，市场情绪更加乐观，产品市场获得了桶顶的支持。尽管美国零售价格上涨，但汽油消费量在夏季驾车季前有所改善。美国炼油厂开工减少和产品库存下降，引发早盘看涨情绪，支撑油价。此外，石脑油收复了上个月的失地，一些石脑油裂解炉从维修中恢复，还有消息称日本将在未来几周内重新启动两台石脑油裂解炉。4月份，油轮市场经历了混合走势，脏油现货运价下跌，而净油现货运价上涨。较低的吨位需求和炼油厂维修推动了脏船运价的下降。清洁现货运价的上升主要是由于产品贸易的增加。4月份，欧佩克的现货固定装置增加了10%。石油输出国组织（OPEC）出海量减少，美国抵达量增加1%。4月份，美国商业石油库存继续呈下降趋势，下降了130万桶。美国原油库存增加890万桶，部分抵消了产品价格下跌的影响，产品价格下跌1010万桶。尽管有所下降，但美国商业库存仍比五年平均水平高出1000万桶。3月份的最新数据显示，印度的商业石油库存扭转了下降趋势，增加了200万桶，其中原油库存增加了590万桶，而产品库存则下降了390万桶。日本石油库存仍比一年前高出2.1%，与五年平均水平相比，赤字为5.9%。2010年，欧佩克原油需求量估计为2950万桶/日，与上一份报告持平，同比增加40万桶/日。2011年，预计欧佩克原油需求量平均为2990万桶/日，比去年增加约40万桶/日，与此前预测一致。

 The OPEC Reference Basket rose further in April to average $118.09/b, up $8.25 from the previousmonth and $35.76 from a year earlier. The continued upward trend was supported by ongoingdevelopments in some MENA countries and improving economic sentiment. The front month NymexWTI and ICE Brent contracts averaged $110.04/b and $123.10/b, respectively, which were theirhighest level since the onset of the financial crisis. However, prices experienced extreme volatilityand a sharp correction in the first week of May, dropping by almost $17, as profit-taking triggered atechnical sell-off. Since then, prices have rebounded, with the OPEC Basket standing at $111.48/bon 10 May. The world economic growth forecast for 2011 remains unchanged at 3.9%, although there havebeen some offsetting revisions. The US economy has shown some slowdown recently and, while itis expected to regain momentum, the forecast has been reduced to 2.6% from 2.9%. Euro-zonegrowth has been increased to 1.7% from 1.5%, backed by continued expansion in themanufacturing sector and improving domestic demand. Japan’s economy is still forecast to declineby 0.1% following the recent tragic events. Developing Asia is expected to contribute the most toglobal growth in 2011, with China growing by 9.0% and India by 8.1%. Risks still appear to beskewed downward due to sovereign debt concerns, rising inflation across the globe leading to higherinterest rates and potential overheating in developing Asia. World oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2011, broadly unchanged from the previousreport, following an increase of 2.1 mb/d last year. The Japanese earthquake, along with economicuncertainty in the US is keeping oil demand estimates in an adjustment mode and is imposing adownside risk for the year’s forecasts. At the same time, China’s economy is roaring ahead of allexpectations, which has implications on the country’s consumption. As a result of the offsettingdemand trends, the risks look to be nearly balanced at the present time. Non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to increase by 0.6 mb/d in 2011, following growth of 1.1 mb/d in2010. This represents an upward revision of 65 tb/d over the previous report. The adjustment to thisyear’s growth was mainly due to the release of preliminary data for actual production in the firstquarter. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are expected to average 5.3 mb/d in 2011, anincrease of 0.4 mb/d over the previous year. In April, total OPEC crude oil production, according tothe secondary sources, was estimated to average 28.99 mb/d, an increase of 70 tb/d over theprevious month.Product markets received support from the top of the barrel in April, as stronger light distillatesdemand resulted in a more positive sentiment. Gasoline consumption improved ahead of thesummer driving season, despite higher retail prices in the US. Lower refinery runs and falling productstocks in the US triggered an early bullish sentiment, supporting prices. Additionally, naphtharecovered the ground lost last month, as some naphtha crackers returned from maintenance, as wellas on news that Japan would restart two naphtha crackers over the coming weeks. The tanker market experienced mixed movement in April with dirty spot carrier rates falling andclean spot rates seeing gains. Lower tonnage demand and refinery maintenance drove the declinein dirty carrier rates. The rise in clean spot freight rates was mainly due to increased product trade.In April, OPEC spot fixtures increased by 10%. Sailings from OPEC were lower and arrivals in theUS increased 1%. US commercial oil inventories continued the downward trend in April, declining by 1.3 mb. Thedraw was driven by products which fell 10.1 mb, while US crude oil stocks partially offset the dropwith an increase of 8.9 mb. Despite the decline, US commercial inventories remain at 10 mb abovethe five-year average. The most recent data for March shows that commercial oil inventories inJapan reversed the downward trend, increasing by 2.0 mb with crude showing a build of 5.9 mb,while product inventories fell by 3.9 mb. Japanese oil inventories remained at 2.1% above a yearago, representing a deficit of 5.9% compared to the five-year average. Demand for OPEC crude in 2010 is estimated at 29.5 mb/d, unchanged from the previous reportand an increase of 0.4 mb/d over a year earlier. In 2011, required OPEC crude is expected toaverage 29.9 mb/d, about 0.4 mb/d higher than last year and in line with the previous forecast.