2010年6月石油市场月报(2010)MOMR June 2010(2010)

5月25日，石油输出国组织（OPEC）参考价格跌至67美元/桶以下，为2009年10月初以来的最低水平，突显出市场波动性，因宏观经济数据令人失望，市场对欧洲债务危机影响的担忧，石油需求的不确定性再次出现。5月份，TheOPEC参考篮子平均价格为74.48美元/桶，较4月份下跌9.5%，而WTI front Monthd下跌12%，因市场转为熊市。原油期货市场的投机性活动也有所下降，因为5月份基金经理将净多头头寸削减了近60%。

今年世界经济增长率从上月的3.5%上调至3.8%。此次调整主要是由于日本对亚洲出口强劲，导致第一季度业绩好于预期。据预测，2010年中国经济将增长2.7%，而此前只有1.5%。欧元区经济增长率从0.6%小幅上升至0.7%，而美国经济保持不变。中国经济增长保持在9.5%不变，印度增长到7.3%，俄罗斯增长到4.0%。虽然上半年全球经济似乎势头强劲，但由于欧元区主权债务问题、中国避免经济过热的能力以及经合组织成员国失业率居高不下，人们对下半年经济增长的担忧依然存在。

预计2010年世界石油需求将增长95万桶/日，与上个月的预测持平。最近的数据显示，今年上半年的需求增长略高于预期。然而，经济复苏步伐的预期放缓可能会影响下半年的需求增长预期。由于经合组织的经济增长预计将为负增长，预计非经合组织的总需求增长仍将是负增长。对2009年世界石油需求增长的估计显示，与之前的估计相比，世界石油需求增长出现了边际变化，下降了150万桶/日。

2010年，非欧佩克国家的石油供应量预计将比上一年增加64万桶/日，而上一次报告的石油供应量则上调了11万桶/日。预计2009年非欧佩克石油供应增长率仍为74万桶/日。预计2010年欧佩克天然气和非常规石油的平均供应量为483万桶/日，比上一年增加48万桶/日。据二级消息人士透露，今年5月，欧佩克原油平均日产量为2926万桶，比上月增加14万桶。

随着5月份产品需求的增长以及原油成本的降低，全球炼油利润率上升，并鼓励炼油厂（尤其是美国炼油厂）增加产量。随着驾驶季节的开始以及飓风季节更加活跃的预测，汽油市场人气可能进一步增强。不过，由于全球库存宽裕，炼油产能持续偏弱，预计未来几个月成品油市场不会领涨市场并支撑原油。

油轮市场在5月份混合，VLCC率下降，而SUZEMAX和AFRAAMAX增加。主要消费者的进口增加支持了运价的增长，而吨位供应影响了超大型油轮行业。清洁现货运价较上月上涨3.9%，主要原因是炼油活动增加。5月份，欧佩克的现货供应量比上月增长了29.7%。石油输出国组织（OPEC）的出海量略高，美国的出海量增长了12.2%。

美国商业股延续上涨趋势，5月份上涨770万股。该项目主要由增加540万桶的产品推动，而原油库存增加230万桶。目前库存比五年平均水平高出8600万桶左右。4月份，日本商业石油库存连续第二个月保持上升趋势，增加710万桶。这项计划已经缩小了赤字，五年平均赤字从一个月前的7%降至2.3%。初步数据显示，5月份日本商业石油库存总量进一步增加。

据估计，2009年欧佩克原油需求平均为2894万桶/日，较上年萎缩240万桶/日。2010年，预计欧佩克原油需求量平均为2877万桶/日，较上一次评估下降了70 tb/d，较上一年下降了175 tb/d。这将不会给市场留下更多原油供应的空间。

The OPEC Reference Basket fell below $67/b on 25 May, the lowest level since early October2009, underscoring market volatility as uncertainties about oil demand reemerged amiddisappointing macroeconomic data and concerns about the impact of Europe’s debt crisis. TheOPEC Reference Basket averaged $74.48/b in May, down 9.5% from April while WTI front monthdropped 12% as the market turned bearish. Speculative activity on the crude futures market alsodeclined as money managers cut net long positions by almost 60% in May. 

World economic growth for this year was revised up to 3.8% from 3.5% last month. The revisionwas mainly due to Japan, where strong exports to Asia resulted in a better than expectedperformance in the first quarter. The country is now forecast to grow 2.7% in 2010, compared to aprevious 1.5%. Growth for the Euro-zone was increased slightly to 0.7% from 0.6%, while the USremained unchanged. China growth was left unchanged at 9.5%, while India was increased to 7.3%and Russia to 4.0%. While the global economy seems to be enjoying solid momentum in the firsthalf, concerns about growth in the second half remain due to Euro-zone sovereign debt problem, theability of China to avoid overheating and the still high unemployment in OECD countries. 

World oil demand is expected to grow by 0.95 mb/d in 2010, unchanged from the previousmonth’s forecast. Recent data indicates that demand growth has been slightly higher thanestimated in the first half of the year. However, an expected moderation in the pace of theeconomic recovery is likely to impact demand growth forecasts for the second half. Totaldemand growth is still expected to come from non-OECD as growth in the OECD is expected toremain negative. The estimate for 2009 world oil demand growth shows a marginal change fromthe previous assessment with a contraction of 1.5 mb/d. 

Non-OPEC oil supply is projected to increase in 2010 by 0.64 mb/d over the previous year,following an upward revision of 0.11 mb/d from the last report. The estimate for 2009 non-OPECsupply growth remains unchanged at 0.74 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and nonconventional oils areexpected to average 4.83 mb/d in 2010, an increase of 0.48 mb/d over the previous year. In May,OPEC crude oil production averaged 29.26 mb/d, according to secondary sources, an increase of0.14 mb/d over the previous month. 

A combination of growing product demand along with lower crude cost in May has lifted refiningmargins across the globe and encouraged refiners, particularly in the US, to increase throughputs.With the start of the driving season and predictions for a more active hurricane season, gasolinemarket sentiment may strengthen further. However, due to comfortable stocks and persisting sparerefinery capacity across the globe, product markets are not expected to lead the market andsupport crude over the coming months. 

The tanker market were mixed in May with VLCC rates decreasing, while Suezmax and Aframaxincreased. Higher imports by major consumers supported the increase in rates, while tonnageavailability affected the VLCC sector. Clean spot freight rates increased by 3.9% over the previousmonth, mainly due to higher refinery activities. In May, OPEC spot fixtures increased by 29.7%compared to the previous month. Sailings from OPEC were marginally higher and arrivals in the USgained 12.2%. 

US commercial stocks continued their upward trend, rising by 7.7 mb in May. The build was drivenmainly by products which increased by 5.4 mb, while crude stocks rose 2.3 mb. Inventories nowstand at around 86 mb above the five-year average. In April, commercial oil stocks in Japancontinued the upward trend for the second consecutive month, increasing by 7.1 mb. The build hasnarrowed the deficit with the five-year average to stand at 2.3% from 7% a month earlier. Preliminaryindications show Japanese total commercial oil stocks built further in May. 

The demand for OPEC crude in 2009 is estimated to average 28.94 mb/d, a contraction of 2.4 mb/dfrom the previous year. In 2010, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 28.77 mb/d,representing a downward revision of 70 tb/d from the previous assessment and a decline of 175 tb/dfrom the previous year. This would leave no room for additional crude oil supplies in the market.