2010年9月石油市场月报(2010)MOMR September 2010(2010)

8月份，欧佩克的参考价格区间在70-79美元/桶之间，平均为74.15美元/桶，较上月上涨1.64美元或2.3%。由于市场情绪恶化，加上经合组织（OECD）公布的宏观经济数据令人失望，该篮子指数在8月24日跌至70美元/桶以下之前，从月初的79美元/桶开始下跌。纽约商品交易所（Nymex）WTI前一个月合约8月份与股市持平，至平均76.67美元/桶，较上月上涨28美元。同期，ICE布伦特原油价格达到77.12美元/桶，较WTI上涨1.76美元/桶，涨幅2%，溢价45美元。9月8日，欧佩克的一揽子计划为74.04美元/桶。2010年世界经济增长率与上一份报告的3.9%持平，而2011年则略微下调至3.6%。随着经济合作与发展组织（OECD）多数成员国经济增速明显加快，全球增长失衡加剧，而发展中国家继续扩张。由于刺激计划的影响减弱，美国和日本的经济增长已被下调。美国2010年和2011年的增长率分别为2.6%和2.3%，而日本预计分别增长2.5%和1.3%。欧元区在2010年第二季度获得了惊人的增长势头，预计2010年和2011年分别增长1.2%和1.0%。在国内需求的支持下，印度预计2010年和2011年分别增长8.2%和7.7%。中国似乎正在成功地冷却经济，2010年的预测值保持在9.5%不变，而2011年则略微降至8.6%。2010年世界石油需求增长基本保持在100万桶/日的水平不变。在主要消费国的刺激计划的支持下，今年上半年全球石油需求超出预期。随着这些政策的逐步放松，预计下半年的需求将走低。2011年，世界石油需求增长预计将继续保持目前的100万桶/日水平，与上次评估持平。以中国、印度、中东和拉丁美洲为首的非经合组织国家仍将是需求增长的主要贡献者。自上次评估以来，非欧佩克国家2010年的石油供应量预计将比上一年增加90万桶/日，此前该国的石油供应量上调了130吨/日。2011年，非欧佩克国家的石油供应预计将比上一年增长40万桶/日。预计2010年欧佩克天然气和非常规天然气的平均日产量为480万桶，2011年为530万桶，这两年的增长率为50万桶/日。8月份，欧佩克原油产量为2915万桶/日，较上月略有下降。由于产品库存在驾驶季结束时大大高于历史水平，产品市场仍然面临压力，特别是在美国和欧洲。对中间馏分油的强劲需求有助于防止炼油利润率进一步下降，尽管这受到高库存水平的限制。由于炼油厂减产不太可能抵消库存过剩的压力，尽管需求旺季已经开始，但未来几个月，成品油市场的持续看跌局面仍有可能继续。8月份，油轮市场上所有航线的运价都在下降。由于浮式储油量下降而导致的高吨位可用性导致运价下降。超大型油轮现货运价下跌8.6%，苏伊士型油轮下跌4.9%，阿芙拉型油轮下跌8.1%。产品市场现货运价呈现混合格局，苏伊士以东现货运价上涨23%，苏伊士以西现货运价下跌26%。美国商业股继续上涨，8月份增加1840万股，顺差扩大，5年平均值接近12300万股。这批原油的主要来源是产品，增加了1470万桶，而原油库存则增加了370万桶。日本最新月度数据显示，7月份商业石油库存增加250万桶，但仍低于5年平均水平800万桶。初步迹象显示，日本商业石油库存总量在去年年底下降了约500万桶。2010年欧佩克原油需求量较上一份报告下调了10万桶/日，降至2860万桶/日，较去年下降了30万桶/日。2011年对原油的需求量也下降了10万桶/日，平均为28.8万桶/日，比上一年增加了20万桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket moved within a range of $70-79/b in August to average $74.15/b,representing an increase of $1.64 or 2.3% over the previous month. The Basket started the monthjust under $79/b before falling to below $70/b on 24 August as market sentiment deteriorated ondisappointing macroeconomic data across the OECD. The Nymex WTI front month contract movedin line with equities to average $76.67/b in August, up 28 from the previous month. Over the sameperiod, ICE Brent reached $77.12/b, representing a gain of $1.76/b or 2% and a premium of 45over WTI. On 8 September, the OPEC Basket stood at $74.04/b. World economic growth in 2010 remains unchanged since the previous report at 3.9%, while 2011has been revised down slightly to 3.6%. The imbalance in global growth has intensified with adeceleration becoming apparent in most of the OECD, while developing countries continue toexpand. Growth in the US and Japan have been revised down due to the diminishing impact ofstimulus packages. US growth stands at 2.6% in 2010 and 2.3% in 2011, while Japan is expected togrow by 2.5% and 1.3% respectively. The Euro-zone gained surprising momentum in 2Q10 and isforecast to grow at 1.2% in 2010 and 1.0% in 2011. Supported by domestic demand, India isexpected to expand at 8.2% in 2010 and 7.7% in 2011. China seems to be successfully coolingdown the economy with the forecast for 2010 unchanged at 9.5%, while 2011 has been loweredslightly to 8.6%. World oil demand growth in 2010 remains broadly unchanged at 1.0 mb/d. Global oil demand washigher than expected in the first half of the year, supported by stimulus packages in key consumingcountries. With these winding down, demand in the second half is expected to move lower. In 2011,world oil demand growth is expected to continue at the current level of 1.0 mb/d, unchanged fromthe last assessment. Non-OECD countries will remain the key contributors to demand growth, led byChina, India, the Middle East and Latin America. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2010 is expected to grow by 0.9 mb/d over the previous year, followingan upward revision of 130 tb/d since the last assessment. In 2011, non-OPEC oil supply isforecast to grow by 0.4 mb/d over the previous year. OPEC NGLs and non-conventionals areexpected to average 4.8 mb/d in 2010 and 5.3 mb/d in 2011, representing growth of 0.5 mb/d forboth years. In August, OPEC crude oil production stood at 29.15 mb/d, representing a marginaldecline from the previous month. With product stocks considerably above historical levels at the end of the driving season, productmarkets remained under pressure, especially in the US and Europe. Strong demand for middledistillates helped prevent a deeper drop in refining margins, although this was limited by highinventory levels. As the cut in refinery runs is not likely to offset the pressure of the stock overhang,the persisting bearish situation in the product markets is likely to continue over the coming months,despite the start of the high demand season. The tanker market experienced declining rates on all routes in August. High tonnage availabilitydue to the drop in floating storage contributed to the decline in freight rates. VLCC spot freight ratesfell 8.6%, Suezmax dropped 4.9% and Aframax declined 8.1% m-o-m. Product market spot freightexperienced mixed patterns with East of Suez spot rates increasing 23% while West of Suez ratesdeclined 26%. US commercial stocks continued to rise, increasing by 18.4 mb in August, widening the surpluswith the five-year average to nearly 123 mb. The bulk of this build came from products, whichincreased by 14.7 mb, while crude stocks rose 3.7 mb. The latest monthly data for Japan showscommercial oil stocks increased 2.5 mb in July, but remained 8 mb below the five-year average.Preliminary indications shows Japanese total commercial oil stocks fell by around 5 mb at the end ofAugust. Demand for OPEC crude in 2010 has been revised down by 0.1 mb/d from the previous report tostand at 28.6 mb/d, representing a decline of 0.3 mb/d compared to last year. Demand for OPECcrude in 2011 has also been revised down by 0.1 mb/d to average 28.8 mb/d, representing anincrease of 0.2 mb/d over the previous year.