2008年6月石油市场月报(2008)MOMR June 2008(2008)

5月份，市场波动主要受到一些因素的影响，主要是投机压力、美元波动和地缘政治担忧。法国港口工人罢工打乱了西非的石油运输和供应中断，进一步支撑了看涨的市场势头。在炼油厂持续低运转率的情况下，对轻质终端产品供应紧张的担忧保持了警觉。尽管如此，石油输出国组织（OPEC）增产和亚洲国家削减补贴的举措仍保持了一些看跌情绪。按月度计算，5月该篮子价格达到119.39美元/桶的历史新高，上涨14.23美元或13.5%。在6月的前两周，由于CFTC的调查，市场受到基金抛售的压力。然而，大西洋飓风季节的开始、天然气的低储存水平和投机性的投机性价格预测使市场再度看涨。中东三次冲突引发期货市场又一波资金流入，提振了市场的恐慌溢价。该篮子在6月9日飙升至创纪录的130.87美元/桶，在6月12日跌至129.77美元/桶。

据预测，2008年世界经济增长率为3.9%，与上月持平。继第一季度表现强于预期后，欧元区和美国的预测分别小幅上调0.1%至1.2%和1.7%。日本经济增长率保持在1.4%不变。美国5月就业人数连续第5个月下降，失业率上升4.9万人，失业率上升0.5%至5.5%。ISM服务业指数连续第二个月再度上扬50，显示大部分经济仍在增长，尽管增速有所下降，但制造业继续萎缩。美元从4月低点回升，但在6月初仍不稳定，因为美联储（fed）明确表示，货币宽松周期已经结束，欧洲央行（ecb）为7月可能的加息做好了准备。人们的注意力显然转向了锚定通胀预期的必要性。由于食品和能源价格的不断上涨，通货膨胀仍然是全球关注的主要问题。印度的经济增长预期下调至7.6%，而中国的经济增长率保持在9.7%不变，俄罗斯的经济增长预期上调0.3个百分点至7.3%。

由于冬季气温低于正常水平，经合组织2008年第一季度冬季产品消费量下降。此外，经济合作与发展组织（OECD）对运输燃料（主要是汽油）的需求总体上，特别是美国国际开发署（USdid）的需求没有如预期那样增长，这是由于经济活动放缓和当前油价上涨所致。其他经合组织成员国的增长不足以抵消2008年前5个月美国石油需求的下降。今年下半年，美国经济放缓和当前的价格环境不仅会影响美国的石油需求，还会影响整个经合组织的石油需求。相比之下，预计新兴经济体今年剩余时间的石油需求将呈现健康增长。尽管最近一些亚洲国家取消了价格补贴，但非经合组织的需求预计将部分抵消美国、欧洲和太平洋地区的下降。因此，2008年的需求量预计将增长110万桶/日，达到平均8690万桶/日，比上个月的预测减少60吨/日。

预计2008年非欧佩克石油供应将增长70万桶/日，达到5010万桶/日，与上月的评估相比，下降幅度约为50tb/d。英国、澳大利亚、苏丹和哈萨克斯坦的向下修正被美国、阿根廷和俄罗斯的向上调整部分抵消。预计2008年欧佩克天然气和非常规石油产量将以50万桶/日的速度增长，达到490万桶/日。5月份，欧佩克原油平均产量为322万桶/日，较上月增加343吨/日，其中沙特阿拉伯和伊拉克的产量大幅增加。

原油市场的不正常情况掩盖了产品市场的积极发展，削弱了欧洲和亚洲的炼油利润率。石油市场持续动荡的情绪以及汽油需求的放缓，特别是在美国，也可能限制产品市场的季节性看涨发展，并对未来炼油经济产生进一步压力。然而，由于潜在的活跃飓风季节，非计划的炼油厂停产可能会改变目前产品市场的前景，提升产品和原油价格以及炼油利润率。

欧佩克5月份的现货供应量下降了60万桶/日，平均为1346万桶/日，相当于现货供应总量的三分之二。同样，石油输出国组织（OPEC）的出海量也小幅下降了21万桶/日，至23.25万桶/日，部分原因是炼油厂的维护措施。5月份油轮市场人气依然看涨，原因是吨位紧张，导致所有报告航线的现货运价都呈反常趋势上升。中东部和东部的超大型油轮交易出现最高涨幅，现货运价较上月上涨60%以上。

5月份，美国商业石油库存下降了400万桶，原因是原油库存减少了1900多万桶，产品库存增加了1500万桶。原油库存接近3.06亿桶，接近五年来的平均水平，尽管美国墨西哥湾沿岸原油进口量减少导致原油库存下降。汽油库存仍在这一范围内，而蒸馏汽油库存继续改善，接近五年平均水平。在欧盟15国加上挪威，石油库存总量符合其季节性趋势，在5月底时跃升1500万桶，保持在5年期的上限。不过，据初步估计，日本的总库存在4月进一步回升，5月猛增1400万桶，进入5年期。

据估计，2007年欧佩克原油需求量平均为3200万桶/日，比上年增加260吨/日；2008年欧佩克原油需求量平均为3180万桶/日，比上年减少130吨/日。

Market volatility was dominated by a number a factors in May, primarily speculative pressure, fluctuations in the USdollar and geopolitical concerns. A strike by port workers in France disrupting petroleum shipments and outages in WestAfrica further supported the bullish market momentum. Fear over tight supplies of light-end products amid persistentlow refinery run rates kept alertness in place. Nonetheless, higher OPEC output and a move by Asian countries toreduced subsidies maintained some bearish sentiment. In monthly terms, the Basket reached a record-high of $119.39/bin May for a gain of $14.23 or 13.5%. In the first two weeks of June, the market came under pressure from fund sell-offsamid CFTC investigations. However, the start of the Atlantic hurricane season, low natural gas storage levels andspeculative price projections by investment banks revived market bullishness. The fear premium was boosted by thethreat of conflict in the Middle East triggering another wave of fund inflows in the futures market. The Basket surged toa record high of $130.87/b on 9 June before declining to stand at $129.77/b on 12 June.

World economic growth is forecast at 3.9% in 2008, unchanged from the previous month. Following a stronger-thanexpectedperformance in the first quarter, forecasts for the Euro-zone and the USA have been revised up slightly by0.1% to 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively. Japanese growth is unchanged at 1.4%. US payrolls in May fell for the fifthmonth, as job losses rose by 49,000 and the unemployment rate surged 0.5% to 5.5%. The ISM services index remainedabove 50 for the second month, indicating that the bulk of the economy was still growing, albeit at a reduced rate, butmanufacturing continued to contract. The dollar recovered from April lows but remained volatile at the start of June, asthe US Federal Reserve signaled clearly that the monetary easing cycle was at an end, and the European Central Bankprepared the ground for a possible hike in July. Attention turned decidedly to the need for anchoring inflationaryexpectations. Inflation remains the main concern worldwide, fed by uninterrupted hikes in food and energy prices.India’s growth forecast was lowered to 7.6%, while China remains unchanged at 9.7% and Russia’s growth forecast waslifted 0.3 percentage points to 7.3%.

Consumption of winter products declined in the first quarter of 2008 in the OECD as a result of the below-normal wintertemperatures. In addition, demand for transport fuel (mainly gasoline) in the OECD in general but particularly the USdid not grow as expected as a result of slow economic activity and current oil prices. Growth in the other OECD regionswas not enough to offset the decline in oil demand in the US in the first five months of 2008. The slowing US economyand the current price environment will affect oil demand not only in the US but also across the OECD in the second halfof this year. In contrast, emerging economies are expected to show healthy growth in oil demand for the rest of the year.Despite the recent removal of price subsidies in some Asian countries, non OECD demand is expected to partially offsetthe decline in the US, Europe, and the Pacific. As a result, demand is forecast to grow by 1.1 mb/d in 2008 to average86.9 mb/d, a reduction of 60 tb/d from last month’s forecast.

Non-OPEC supply in 2008 is expected to grow by 0.7 mb/d to reach 50.1 mb/d, a downward revision of around 50 tb/dcompared with last month’s assessment. Downward revisions made to UK, Australia, Sudan and Kazakhstan werepartially offset by upward adjustments made to USA, Argentina and Russia. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils in2008 are expected to grow at 0.5 mb/d to reach 4.9 mb/d. In May, OPEC crude oil production averaged 32.2 mb/d, anincrease of 343 tb/d from the previous month, with production in Saudi Arabia and Iraq witnessing significant increases.

Irregular circumstances in the crude market overshadowed positive developments in the product markets, underminingrefining margins in Europe and Asia. The continuing volatile sentiment of the oil market along with slowing gasolinedemand, particularly in the US, may also cap the seasonal bullish developments in the product markets and exert furtherpressure on the refining economics in the future. However, unplanned refinery outages due to a potentially activehurricane season could change the current prospects of the product markets lifting product and crude prices as well asrefining margins.

OPEC spot fixtures dropped 0.6 mb/d in May to average 13.46 mb/d, which corresponds to two-thirds of total spotfixtures. Similarly, OPEC sailings fell a minor 0.21 mb/d to 23.25 mb/d, partially due to the refinery maintenanceseason. The tanker market sentiment remained bullish in May due to tonnage tightness which caused spot freight rates toincrease on all reported routes in an unseasonal trend. The highest gain was observed in VLCCs trading between theMiddle East and the East with an increase of more than 60% in spot freight rates from the previous month.

US commercial oil stocks dropped 4 mb in May due to a draw of more than 19 mb on crude oil inventories and a buildof 15 mb in products. At nearly 306 mb, crude oil stocks are near the five-year average despite the drop which wasdriven by low imports following delays in the US Gulf Coast. Gasoline stocks remained within the range while distillateinventories continued to improve to approach the five-year average. In EU-15 plus Norway, total oil inventoriesfollowed their seasonal trend, jumping 15 mb to remain within the upper end of the five-year range at end-May.However, total inventories in Japan recovered further in April before surging 14 mb in May to move within the five-yearrange, according to preliminary estimates.

The demand for OPEC crude in 2007 is estimated to average 32.0 mb/d, an increase of 260 tb/d over the previous year.In 2008, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 31.8 mb/d or 130 tb/d lower than in the previous year.