2005年7月石油市场月报(2005)MOMR July 2005(2005)

油价上涨和燃油补贴减少已开始影响一些亚洲经济体。2005年，台湾、泰国、新加坡和菲律宾的经济增长预期下降了0.3%以上，韩国的经济增长预期下降了0.2%。2006年的预测显示，随着2006年美国和中国经济增长放缓，这一地区的出口将减少，经济增长将进一步放缓。2006年，亚太地区应实现4.2%的增长，略低于今年预期的4.4%，较2004年的6%大幅下降。

美国和中国的增长继续强劲。在美国，消费者支出继续有增无减，2005年的GDP增长率预测不变，为3.4%。明年的经济增长率预计将降至3%以下，因为更高的利率可能会影响消费者和企业的支出。尽管人们担心经济过热和过度投资，但中国经济几乎没有放缓的迹象。6月份出口增长非常强劲，宽松的金融环境使投资增长率居高不下。中国2005年的经济增长预期保持在8.6%不变。由于预计房地产市场疲软以及固定资产投资有所放缓，预计明年经济增速将下降8.2%。

第二季度数据证实，日本第一季度的复苏在改善内需方面有着坚实的基础。据预测，2005年日本经济将增长1.6%，低于此前预测的1.7%。欧洲经济区的预测没有变化，预计2005年将增长1%。尽管1.5%的预期增长率仍低于趋势，但预计2006年会有所改善。2005年世界经济预测增长率保持在4.1%不变，尽管欧洲有所改善，但2006年世界经济增长率可能略低于4.0%。这一下降反映了发展中世界所有区域，特别是非洲和亚洲的增长率较低。更高的石油进口账单和大宗商品市场可能出现的下滑，可能会使发展中国家的增长率在2006年降至4.8%——虽然低于今年预期的5.2%，但这仍远远高于20年平均约3.5%的增长率。

今年6月，欧佩克通过了一个新的参考篮子，由11种代表成员国主要出口原油的原油组成，按产量和对主要市场的出口加权。根据旧篮子和新篮子的计算结果，6月份的月平均价格升至52.04美元/桶，较上月上涨5.08美元/桶或11%。由于担心产品供应可能不足以满足今年下半年的需求，油价上涨，这种情绪只因意外的炼油厂停产而进一步加剧。随着飓风季节的突然活跃启动扰乱了墨西哥湾的石油生产，并加剧了对产品和原油供应短缺的担忧，篮子在七月的头几周继续上涨。

与上月相比，6月份原油价格的震荡走势超过了产品市场的表现，并削弱了全球糖醋基准原油的炼油利润率。尽管利润率较低，但炼油厂利润率仍保持健康，特别是在最近美国墨西哥湾沿岸发生风暴之后，这使得利润率能够收回部分先前的损失。与此同时，飓风季节的提前开始已经转移了市场对产品的关注，预计未来几个月将出现短缺，从而推高了原油和产品价格。

欧佩克的现货租船量跃升156万桶/日，至142.7万桶/日，扭转了过去三个月的下降趋势。中东以外的国家对经济增长贡献了三分之二。来自欧佩克地区的航行量略微增加了10万桶/日，达到2720万桶/日，与2004年6月的数据相比，增长了360万桶/日。大多数行业的原油运价持续走弱，特别是超大型油轮，由于吨位供应不足，超大型油轮运价跌至2003年底的WS50水平。苏伊士型油轮和阿芙拉型油轮的运价也有所下降，但印度尼西亚/美国西海岸航线和地中海地区除外。同样，产品运价连续第三个月下降，除地中海/西北欧航线外，几乎没有活动。

由于一些地区的经济活动放缓，以及初步需求数据显示，包括中国在内的一些主要消费国上半年的消费显著下降，2005年世界石油需求增长率较上一次报告下调了15万桶/日。特别是，在第二季度、第三季度和第四季度，需求的绝对水平在每季度下降了约300000桶/天。2005年全球需求增长预计将增加162万桶/日，同比增长2%，达到8366万桶/日。

根据世界经济4%的国内生产总值增长率和正常天气条件，对2006年世界石油需求的初步预测显示，世界石油需求预计平均为8520万桶/日，这意味着比2005年总消费量增加154万桶/日或1.85%。从区域来看，需求增长的最大贡献者预计将是发展中国家，其次是经合组织和中国，预计分别增长60万桶/日、50万桶/日和40万桶/日。

2005年非欧佩克成员国供应增长的估计数比上个月的报告略有下降。非经营性供应预计比上年增加7700万桶/日，比上月的报告修订了40000桶/日。俄罗斯经济前景的修正占了负面修正的大部分。据二级消息人士称，欧佩克原油总产量平均为3010万桶/日，较上月增加9万桶/日。到目前为止，运营产量增加了100万桶/日。

2006年非欧佩克国家的石油平均产量预计为5170万桶/日，比上一年增加108万桶/日。2006年，非欧佩克石油供应（包括加工收益、欧佩克天然气和非常规石油）预计平均为5620万桶/日，比2005年增加140万桶/日。从区域来看，最大的贡献者预计是非洲地区，其次是金融服务联盟、拉丁美洲和北美（主要是加拿大），而经合组织欧洲和太平洋地区以及中东地区预计将出现净下降。俄罗斯的净贡献预计仅为8万至10万桶/日，并被认为是明年非欧佩克经济增长的主要风险因素。就总体原油质量而言，预计净增加量将绝大多数为中等偏甜，而近年来增加量的主要是酸酐。

2005年6月，美国商业石油库存自2002年8月以来首次突破10亿美元大关，达到10.155亿美元，比上月高出2%，比去年同期高出约5%。其中三分之二来自蒸馏油库存，除汽油库存略有下降外，其他主要产品库存贡献不大。与上月相比，6月份16欧元（欧盟加挪威）的石油库存总量几乎保持不变，为111400万桶。尽管同比顺差仍较上月的2%小幅上升了4%，但原油库存的增加几乎被产品库存的边际提取所抵消。5月份，日本的商业石油库存总量显著增加，达到47万桶/日，达到17410万桶。原油和产品库存对这一增长的贡献几乎相等。上个月y-o-ydeficit转为盈余约3%。

2005年的供需平衡在对世界石油需求的基础和增长进行向下修正之后进行了重大修正。因此，预计2005年欧佩克原油（a-b）的需求量为2890万桶/日，较上月报告减少26万桶/日。欧佩克原油产量在今年第二季度平均为29.5 Mb/d，30MB／d，约为400000桶/日和2.7 Mb/d，比这两个时期的欧佩克原油需求估计的还要多。考虑到新的平衡、由此产生的对原油产量的需求以及预计的产能，预计欧佩克的闲置产能在2005年下半年平均约为7.9%，而2004年同期为4.9%。2006年的需求预计为平均8520万桶/日，非欧佩克国家原油（包括欧佩克天然气）总供应预计为平均5620万桶/日，预计欧佩克原油（a-b）需求为2900万桶/日，较2005年仅增加10万桶/日。就欧佩克产能而言，预计平均产能约为3340万桶/日，较2005年平均增长71万桶/日。因此，考虑到2006年的供需平衡、由此产生的欧佩克原油减产水平和预计产能，估计欧佩克2006年的闲置产能平均约为12%。

Higher oil prices and lower fuel subsidies have begun to affect a number of Asian economies. The 2005 growth forecasts forTaiwan, Thailand, Singapore, and the Philippines have been reduced by over 0.3% and the forecast for South Korea has beencut by 0.2%. The forecasts for 2006 suggest that growth will ease further as slower growth in the USA and China in 2006will reduce the exports of this region. In 2006 Asia Pacific should achieve growth of 4.2%, slightly lower than the 4.4%expected for this year which represents a sharp reduction on the 6% recorded in 2004.

  Growth in the USA and China continues to be strong. Within the USA, consumer spending continues unabated and the GDPgrowth forecast for 2005 is unchanged at 3.4%. Next year growth is expected to fall to below 3% as higher interest rates mayaffect consumer and business spending. Despite fears of overheating and overinvestment, there are few signs of a slowdownin the Chinese economy. Export growth was very strong in June and accommodative financial conditions have keptinvestment growth rates high. The 2005 growth forecast for China is unchanged at 8.6%. Lower growth of 8.2% is forecastfor next year as a result of anticipated weakness in the property market and some moderation in fixed investment. 

Second quarter data confirms that the Japanese recovery of the first quarter had a solid base in better domestic demand. Japan isforecast to grow by 1.6% in 2005, down from the previous forecast of 1.7%. There is no change to the forecast for the Eurozonewhich is expected to grow by 1% in 2005. An improvement is expected in 2006 although the forecast growth rate of 1.5%remains below trend. The forecast growth rate for the world economy in 2005 is unchanged at 4.1% and, despite theimprovement in Europe, world growth in 2006 may be slightly lower at 4.0%. This reduction reflects lower growth in allregions of the developing world, especially in Africa and Asia. The combination of higher oil import bills and the eventualdownturn in commodity markets may depress the growth rate of Developing Countries to 4.8% in 2006 – although down fromthe 5.2% expected this year, this would still represent growth well above the 20- year average of about 3.5%. 

A new OPEC Reference Basket was adopted in June, consisting of 11 crudes representing the main export crudes of theMember Countries weighted according to production and exports to the main markets. Based on a combination of the oldand new Basket calculations, the monthly average for June rose to $52.04/b, for a gain of $5.08/b or 11% over the previousmonth. Prices moved upward on concerns that product supplies might not be sufficient to meet demand in the latter part ofthis year, a sentiment that was only furthered by unexpected refinery outages. The Basket continued to move higher in thefirst weeks of July as an abrupt and active start to the hurricane season disrupted oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico andcompounded fears of a shortfall in product and crude supplies. 

The choppy ride in crude prices outpaced the performance of the product markets in June and undermined refinery marginsfor sweet and sour benchmark crudes across the world compared to the previous month. Although lower, refinery marginsstill remain healthy, especially in the wake of recent storms in the US Gulf Coast, which allowed margins to recover part oftheir earlier losses. Meanwhile, the early start of the hurricane season has shifted market attention to products and theexpectation of shortages in the coming months has lifted crude and product prices. 

OPEC spot chartering jumped 1.56 mb/d to 14.27 mb/d, reversing the downward trend of the last three months. OPECCountries outside the Middle East contributed two thirds of the growth. Sailings from the OPEC area increased slightly by0.1 mb/d to 27.2 mb/d, which corresponds to a growth of 3.6 mb/d over the June 2004 figures. Crude oil freight ratescontinued to weaken in most of the sectors, especially for VLCCs, where they plunged to late 2003 levels of WS50s due toplentiful tonnage availability. Suezmax and Aframax freight rates declined also except for the Indonesia/US West Coastroute and within the Mediterranean region. Similarly, product freight rates continued to fall for the third consecutive monthdue to little activity, with the exception of the Mediterranean/NW Europe route. 

World oil demand growth in 2005 has been revised down by 0.15 mb/d from the last report due to a slowdown in economicactivity in some regions and preliminary demand figures pointing to significantly lower consumption in the first half of theyear in some major consuming countries, including China. Particularly, the absolute level of demand has been revised downfor the second, third and fourth quarters by approximately 300,000 b/d in each quarter. Global demand growth for 2005 isnow projected to rise by 1.62 mb/d or 2% y-o-y to total 83.66 mb/d. 

The preliminary world oil demand forecast for 2006 — based on a GDP growth rate for the world economy of 4% andnormal weather conditions — shows that world oil demand is projected to average 85.2 mb/d, implying a rise of 1.54 mb/dor 1.85% over total 2005 consumption. On a regional basis, the largest contributor to demand growth is expected to be theDeveloping Countries followed by the OECD and China with an estimated growth of 0.6 mb/d, 0.5 mb/d and 0.4 mb/d,respectively. 

The estimate for non-OPEC supply growth in 2005 has been revised slightly down from last month’s report. Non-OPECsupply is expected increase 0.77 mb/d over the previous year, a revision of 40,000 b/d from last month’s report. Revisions inthe outlook for Russia account for the bulk of the negative revisions. Total OPEC crude production averaged 30.01 mb/d inJune, which represents an increase of 90,000 b/d from last month, according to secondary sources. Year-to-date OPECproduction has increased 1 mb/d.

Non-OPEC oil production in 2006 is expected to average 51.7 mb/d, an increase of 1.08 mb/d over the previous year. In2006, non-OPEC oil supply (including processing gains, OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils) is expected to average56.2 mb/d, an increase of 1.4 mb/d versus 2005. On a regional basis, the largest contributor is expected to be the Africanregion, followed by the FSU, Latin America and North America (mainly Canada), whilst OECD Europe and Pacific, and theMiddle East are expected to show a net decline. The net contribution from Russia is expected to be just 80,000 to100,000 b/d, and is considered the main risk factor for non-OPEC growth next year. In terms of overall crude quality, the netincrease is expected to be overwhelmingly medium sweet, in contrast to recent years when increases have been mainlymedium sour. 

US commercial oil stocks in June 2005 exceeded the 1 bn mark for the first time since August 2002, standing at 1,015.5 mb or2% higher than last month and about 5% above last year’s level. Two thirds of this build came from distillate inventories, whileother major product stocks contributed marginally, except for gasoline inventories which showed a slight draw. Total oil stocksin Eur-16 (EU plus Norway) in June remained almost unchanged at 1,114.0 mb compared with the previous month. The buildin crude oil stocks was nearly cancelled out by marginal draws on product inventories, although the y-o-y surplus still rose aslight 4% from the 2% registered last month. Total commercial oil stocks in Japan during May witnessed a significant build of0.47 mb/d to stand at 174.1 mb. Crude oil and product inventories contributed nearly equally to this rise. The last month y-o-ydeficit turned to a surplus of about 3%.

  The supply/demand balance for 2005 has been revised significantly following downward revisions to the base and growthfor world oil demand. As a result, the estimated demand for OPEC crude in 2005 (a-b) is now forecast at 28.9 mb/d, whichrepresents a reduction of 260,000 b/d versus last month’s report. OPEC crude production averaged 29.5 mb/d in the first and30 mb/d in the second quarter of this year, which is approximately 400,000 b/d and 2.7 mb/d respectively more than theestimated OPEC crude requirements for these two periods. Taking into account the new balance, the resulting requiredOPEC crude production levels and the projected production capacity, OPEC’s spare capacity is estimated to average around7.9% in the second half of 2005, compared to 4.9% in the same period of 2004. With demand in 2006 expected to average 85.2 mb/d and total non-OPEC supply (including OPEC NGLs) expected toaverage 56.2 mb/d, the estimated demand for OPEC crude (a-b) is forecast at 29 mb/d, an increase of just 100,000 b/d versus2005. In terms of OPEC capacity, it is expected to average around 33.4 mb/d, representing an average increase of 710,000b/d from 2005. Therefore, taking into account the supply/demand balance for 2006, the resulting required OPEC crudeproduction levels and the projected production capacity, OPEC’s spare capacity in 2006 is estimated to average around 12%.