欧氏能源会谈4EUCERS ENERGY TALKS 4

当前国际政治格局的变化和挑战导致全球能源流动发生重大变化，影响了欧洲的能源政策。由于页岩革命，美国等传统上是能源进口国的国家正在转变为能源出口国。另一方面，中东产油国等传统出口国正成为越来越重要的石油消费国。根据2014年《世界能源展望》(WEO)，到本世纪30年代初，中国将成为全球最大的石油消费国，而印度、东南亚、中东和撒哈拉以南非洲将成为全球能源需求增长的引擎。《2014年世界经济展望》预计，中东部分地区目前的政治动荡，将使全球能源体系面临达不到预期的危险。中东仍是唯一一个低成本石油的大型来源。由于国际政治发展、新能源技术和新发现，传统能源超级大国现在面临着来自新的主要生产国和重新崛起的能源大国的竞争。此外，油价从2012年初每桶逾125美元的峰值下跌至2015年1月的每桶50美元以下，对那些公共部门依赖石油收入的现有能源超级大国造成了严重的经济后果。2015年的EUCERS/ISD/KAS能源谈判考察了新兴和重新崛起的能源超级大国的作用，以及它们与现有超级大国(尤其是欧洲国家)在市场上的相互作用。能源超级大国可以被定义为拥有探明储量和对全球市场意义重大的生产和消费水平的国家。因此，这些伙伴将重点放在伊朗、巴西、哈萨克斯坦和伊拉克。该系列研讨会在伦敦国王学院(King’s College London)举行，围绕新兴和复兴中的能源超级大国的不同方面以及对欧洲市场的影响，分别举行了四场专题讨论会。其目的是通过一系列发人深省的讨论，让公众、政治家、学者和实践者了解这一领域的新趋势。我们对这个系列研讨会采取了广泛的方法，在中立和无党派的环境中让所有相关的利益相关者都参与进来。这些讲座以“圆桌”形式进行，由EUCERS主任弗里德伯特•普福格教授主持发言者的讨论。演讲者被分配了五到十分钟作开场白。在这之后，有足够的时间留给观众提问和评论，这也强调了本系列的目的——参与讨论，告知并促进参与者的创新思维。2015年的EUCERS/ISD/KAS能源讲座平均每节观众50人。在下面，我们将讨论和总结每次圆桌讨论的结果，并概述欧洲能源安全和能源政策的后果。

Current changes and challenges in the international political landscape have caused major shifts in global energy flows and have affected European energy policy. Countries that are traditionally energy importers, such as the U.S. due to the shale revolution, are turning into energy exporters.
Traditional exporters such as producers in the Middle East, on the other hand, are becoming increasingly important oil consumers. By the early 2030s, China will become the world’s largest oil-consuming country according to the World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2014 and India, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa will take over as engines for global energy demand growth.
The WEO 2014 expects the current political turmoil in parts of the Middle East, which remains the only large source of low-cost oil, to put the global energy system in danger of falling short of expectations. Traditional energy superpowers now face competition from new major producers and re-emerging energy players due to international political developments, new energy technologies and discoveries.
In addition, falling oil prices from a peak of more than $125 per barrel in early 2012 to below $50 per barrel in January 2015 have severe economic consequences for existing energy superpowers whose public sectors are dependent on oil revenues.
The EUCERS/ISD/KAS Energy Talks 2015 have examined the role of emerging and re-emerging energy superpowers and the interplay with existing superpowers on markets, particularly the European ones. Energy superpowers can be defined as countries with proven reserves and production and consumption levels significant to global markets.
The partners therefore set a focus on Iran, Brazil, Kazakhstan and Iraq. The workshop series took place at King’s College London and featured four separate panel discussions on distinct aspects of emerging and reemerging energy superpowers and the consequences for European markets.
The aim was to inform the public, politicians, academics, and practitioners about emerging trends in this field by engaging them in a series of thought-provoking discussions. We adopted a broad approach to this workshop series, involving all relevant stakeholders in a neutral and non-partisan environment.
These talks operated based on a ‘roundtable’ format with Professor Dr Friedbert Pflger, Director of EUCERS, chairing the discussion among the speakers. The speakers were allotted five to ten minutes to make their opening remarks.
Following this, sufficient time was left to questions and comments from the audience, underscoring the purpose of this series – to engage in discussion, inform, and promote innovative thinking among our participants. The EUCERS/ISD/KAS Energy Talks 2015 welcomed an average of 50 people per session in the audience.
In the following we will discuss and summarize the findings of each roundtable discussion and outline the consequences for energy security and energy policy in Europe.