2012年10月石油市场月报(2012)MOMR October 2012(2012)

石油输出国组织（OPEC）9月份参考原油价格上涨1.15美元或1%，至110.67美元/桶。随着亚洲原油价格上涨，参考原油价格涨跌互现，非洲原油价格下跌，但安哥拉的吉拉索尔原油除外。原油价格最初上涨，因预期欧洲央行（ecb）的债券购买计划和美国联邦储备委员会（fed）宣布第三轮不限成员名额的量化宽松政策，但随后因对全球经济和石油需求增长的担忧加剧而回落。北海产量减少，加上地缘政治因素，也有助于提振油价。10月9日，欧佩克的一揽子计划为109.46美元/桶。2012年世界经济增长率从之前的3.3%下调至3.1%，反映出今年以来增长放缓。假设减速将在本季度见底，2013年的预测仍为3.2%。2012年和2013年，美国的经济增长率仍低于2.2%和2.0%。日本越来越感到缺乏竞争力，2012年和2013年分别增长了2.2%和1.1%。与此同时，欧元区预计2013年将增长0.1%，今年则将收缩0.5%。出口导向型新兴市场经济体普遍感受到欠发达经济体的疲软，预计2012年中国经济将增长7.6%，来年将增长8.0%。印度预计今年和2013年将分别增长5.7%和6.6%。2013年世界石油需求预计将增长80万桶/日，与之前的预测持平，并与本年的增长保持一致，全球石油消费项目继续受到世界经济面临的不确定性的影响。工业生产放缓已大幅减少了美国和中国的全球石油需求，而冬季前景预示着未来几个月的进一步不确定性。由于世界经济动荡，2013年预测的风险主要是下降的。非欧佩克国家的石油供应量预计在2012年将增加60万桶/日，此前一个月下降了10万桶/日，主要原因是巴西、哈萨克斯坦、中国、阿塞拜疆和英国的供应低于预期。2013年，在美国、加拿大、巴西和哈萨克斯坦以及阿苏丹和南苏丹的预期增长的支持下，非欧佩克国家的石油供应预计将增长90万桶/日。预计2012年欧佩克天然气和非常规石油产量将增加40万桶/日，2013年将增加20万桶/日。据二级消息来源显示，9月份，欧佩克原油总产量平均为310.8万桶/日，较上月下降265吨/日。10月份，由于欧洲的维护措施，欧佩克的原油供应紧张，成品油市场全线上涨。汽油继续利用大西洋盆地的生产紧张，这有助于炼油厂利润率继续提高。相比之下，随着供应量的增加导致裂缝消退，亚洲产品市场有所缓和。在油轮市场上，超大型油轮现货运价较上月有所改善，苏伊士型油轮运价则继续下降。阿芙拉型油轮的运价结束了本月的持平，一些航次的日收益为零。总的来说，脏油轮市场继续以充足的船舶供应、有限的需求和最少的活动为主。清洁油轮运价涨跌互现，苏伊士以东略有下降，而苏伊士以西再次出现下降。欧佩克9月份现货供应量平均增长2.5%，至1081万桶/日，而欧佩克的航运量基本稳定在2389万桶/日。初步数据显示，8月份，经合组织商业石油库存总量大幅下降，低于5年平均水平4600万桶。商业原油库存显示顺差2630万桶，而产品库存显示逆差7200万桶。8月底，经合组织（OECD）的商业股远期覆盖天数约为58.4天，比五年期平均水平高出0.4天。最新信息显示，9月份美国商业石油库存总量增加970万桶，显示盈余2860万桶，为五年平均水平，比一年前增加1650万桶。原油和成品油的需求都对石油产量起到了推动作用，分别增加了760万桶和210万桶。今年对欧佩克原油的需求从之前的评估增加了20万桶/日，达到3010万桶/日，比去年下降了10万桶/日。预计2013年，欧佩克原油需求平均为2980万桶/日，较上年下降30万桶/日，较上一份报告上调20万桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket rose $1.15 or 1% in September to $110.67/b. Basket componentswere mixed, as Asian-destined crude improved, while African grades declined with the exception ofAngola’s Girassol. Crude oil prices initially rose in anticipation of the European Central Bank's bondbuyingprogramme and the US Federal Reserve’s announcement of a third, open-ended round ofquantitative easing, but then fell back on increasing concerns about the global economy and oildemand growth. Reduced North Sea output, along with geopolitical factors, has also helped to lift oilprices. The OPEC Basket stood at $109.46/b on 9 October. World economic growth in 2012 was revised down to 3.1% from 3.3% previously, reflectingslowing growth since the start of this year. Assuming the deceleration will bottom out in thecurrent quarter, the forecast for 2013 has been left at 3.2%. The US expansion remains belowpotential at 2.2% in 2012 and 2.0% in 2013. Japan is increasingly feeling the weakness inexports and is seen expanding by 2.2% in 2012 and 1.1% in 2013. Meanwhile, the Euro-zone isexpected to grow at 0.1% in 2013, following a contraction of 0.5% this year. The weakness indeveloped economies has been widely felt in the export-oriented emerging market economies.China is now forecast to expand by 7.6% in 2012 and 8.0% in the coming year. India is forecastto grow by 5.7% this year and 6.6% in 2013.World oil demand is expected to grow by 0.8 mb/d in 2013, unchanged from the previous forecastand in line with the growth for the current year, which has been revised down by 0.1 mb/d. Theprojections for global oil consumption continue to be affected by the uncertainties facing the worldeconomy. Slower industrial production has sharply reduced global oil demand in both the US andChina, and the winter outlook represents further uncertainties in the coming months. Risks to theforecast for 2013 are primarily on the downside, due to the turbulence in the world economy.Non-OPEC oil supply is now forecast to increase by 0.6 mb/d in 2012, following a downwardrevision of 0.1 mb/d from the previous month, due mainly to lower-than-expected supply from Brazil,Kazakhstan, China, Azerbaijan, and the UK. In 2013, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by0.9 mb/d, supported by anticipated growth in the US, Canada, Brazil, and Kazakhstan, as well asSudan and South Sudan. OPEC NGLs and nonconventional oils are expected to increase by0.4 mb/d in 2012, and 0.2 mb/d in 2013. In September, total OPEC crude production averaged31.08 mb/d, according to secondary sources, representing a drop of 265 tb/d from the previousmonth.Product markets experienced an uptick across the barrel in October, on the back of tighteningsentiment fuelled by maintenance in Europe. Gasoline continued to take advantage of the producttightness in the Atlantic Basin, which helped refinery margins to continue to improve. In contrast,Asia’s product market eased as increasing supplies caused cracks to retreat. In the tanker market, VLCC spot freight rates saw modest improvements on all reported routes overthe previous month, while Suezmax rates continued to decline. Aframax freight rates ended themonth flat, with daily earnings reaching zero for some voyages. In general, the dirty tanker marketcontinued to be dominated by ample vessel supply, limited demand, and minimal activities. Cleantanker freight rates were mixed, with a slightly decrease East of Suez, while West of Suez saw again. OPEC spot fixtures rose 2.5% in September to average 10.81mb/d, while OPEC sailings werealmost steady at 23.89 mb/d.Preliminary data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks dropped sharply in August tostand 46 mb below the five-year average. Commercial crude stocks showed a surplus of 26.3 mb,while product stocks indicated a deficit of 72 mb. In days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocksstood at around 58.4 days at the end of August, 0.4 days higher than the five-year average. Thelatest information shows that US total commercial oil stocks rose by 9.7 mb in September, indicatinga surplus of 28.6 mb with the five-year average and 16.5 mb above a year ago. Both crude andproducts contributed to the build, increasing by 7.6 mb and 2.1 mb respectively.Demand for OPEC crude for this year has been revised up by 0.2 mb/d from the previousassessment to stand at 30.1 mb/d, representing a decline of 0.1 mb/d compared to last year. In2013, demand for OPEC crude is forecast to average 29.8 mb/d, a decline of 0.3 mb/d from thecurrent year and representing an upward adjustment of 0.2 mb/d from the previous report.