2017年7月石油市场月报(2017)MOMR July 2017(2017)

石油市场亮点

原油价格变动

今年6月，欧佩克一篮子参考原油价格下跌8.1%，至45.21美元/桶。今年迄今，欧佩克一篮子参考原油价格上涨38.3%，至50.21美元/桶。原油期货在熊市中暴跌。ICE布伦特原油价格下跌7.5%，至47.55美元/桶，纽约商品交易所WTI原油价格下跌6.9%，至45.20美元/桶，市场担心全球供应量上升。今年迄今，ICE布伦特和纽约商品交易所WTI价格分别上涨28%和26%。洲际交易所布伦特商品交易所（ICE）与纽约商品交易所（NYMEX）的WTI价差收窄至2.36美元/桶。基金经理在6月份开始了新一轮的卖空，这加大了价格下行的压力。

世界经济

据预测，2018年世界经济增长率为3.4%，与2017年的增长率相同。这反映了全球经济复苏的持续加强，全球经济复苏正在变得更加平衡，而石油市场的稳定仍然是一个关键的决定因素。预计经合组织2018年的增长率略低于2017年的2.0%，为1.9%。预计印度2018年将增长7.5%，而2017年为7.0%。据预测，巴西和俄罗斯的经济复苏率将分别扩大至1.5%和1.4%，而2017年分别为0.5%和1.2%。中国的经济增速将继续小幅下降，但2018年仍将保持6.2%的可观增长，而2017年为6.6%。

世界石油需求

预计2017年全球经济增长约为127万桶/日，与上月基本持平，平均为9640万桶/日。最新数据显示，印度和中国的需求依然强劲，反映了前者的健康制造业和道路建设活动，而后者的运输和工业部门的需求不断上升。2018年，世界石油需求预计将增长126万桶/日，略低于今年的增长，达到平均9760万桶/日。经合组织预计增长20万桶/日，而非经合组织预计增长107万桶/日。

世界石油供应

2017年，非欧佩克国家的石油供应增长略低于80万桶/日，平均为5782万桶/日。下一次调整主要是由于预计经合组织在2017年下半年的石油供应减少。2018，非欧佩克石油供应预计将增长1.14 Mb/d，平均为58.96 Mb/d。预计美国、巴西、加拿大、俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦、刚果和英国将成为增长的主要驱动力，而墨西哥、中国、哥伦比亚和阿塞拜疆则预计下降。预计2018年欧佩克天然气产量将增长18万桶/日，平均增长649万桶/日，部分原因是赤道几内亚加入欧佩克。二级消息来源显示，今年6月，欧佩克原油产量增加393 tb/d，平均为3261 mb/d。

产品市场和炼油业务

美国炼油厂利润率在6月份进一步下降，因为尽管夏季驾驶季节已经结束，但美国汽油裂缝蔓延率有所下降。高库存水平加剧了桶中部的疲软，超过了汽油裂缝的增长。与此同时，在欧洲和亚洲，由于更多的出口机会超过了充足的供应，healthydemand的利润率小幅上升。

油轮市场

脏油轮的即期运价在6月份普遍疲软。超大型油轮运价下跌6%，苏伊士型油轮和阿芙拉型油轮现货运价跌幅更大，分别较5月份下跌20%。油轮现货运价的下降是由于吨位供应量的增加，因为市场不够活跃，无法消化运力的扩张。同样，清洁油轮的市场情绪在6月份的平均水平上也没有改善。

股票变动

经合组织（OECD）5月份商业石油库存总量下降至301500万桶。在这一水平上，经合组织的商业石油库存比最近五年的平均水平高出2.34亿桶。原油和成品油库存分别比季节性正常水平高出约148MB和860MB。从远期覆盖天数来看，5月份oecd商业类股为63.5天，比最近5年的平均水平高出约3.6天。

供需平衡

据估计，2017年欧佩克原油需求为3230万桶/日，比2016年增加了30万桶/日。2018年，欧佩克原油需求预计为3220万桶/日，比今年减少约10万桶/日。

Oil Market Highlights 

Crude Oil Price Movements 

The OPEC Reference Basket declined 8.1% in June to $45.21/b. Year-to-date, the ORB value was 38.3%higher at $50.21/b. Crude futures tumbled in a bear market. ICE Brent settled down 7.5% to $47.55/b andNYMEX WTI dropped 6.9% to $45.20/b, on concerns about rising global supply. Year-to-date, ICE Brent andNYMEX WTI prices were 28% and 26% higher, respectively. The ICE Brent-NYMEX WTI spread narrowedto $2.36/b. Money managers embarked on a new cycle of short-selling in June, which added to thedownward pressure on prices. 

World Economy

 World economic growth in 2018 is forecast at 3.4%, the same level of growth forecast for 2017. This reflectsa continued strengthening of the global recovery which is becoming more balanced, with stability in the oilmarket remaining a key determinant. OECD growth is forecast at a slightly lower level of 1.9% in 2018,compared to 2.0% in 2017. India is forecast to grow by 7.5% in 2018, compared to 7.0% in 2017. Brazil andRussia are both forecast to expand their recovery to 1.5% and 1.4%, respectively, compared to 0.5% and1.2% in 2017. China will continue to grow at a slightly lower, but still considerable 6.2% in 2018, compared to6.6% in 2017. 

World Oil Demand 

Global growth in 2017 is expected to be around 1.27 mb/d, broadly unchanged from previous month, toaverage 96.4 mb/d. The latest data shows demand in India and China have remained robust, reflectinghealthy manufacturing and road construction activities in the former, and rising demand in the transportationand industrial sectors in the latter. For 2018, world oil demand is anticipated to rise by 1.26 mb/d, slightlybelow the current year’s growth, to average 97.6 mb/d. The OECD is expected to see growth of 0.20 mb/d,while the non-OECD is forecast to increase by 1.07 mb/d. 

World Oil Supply

 Non-OPEC oil supply growth was revised marginally lower to 0.80 mb/d in 2017, averaging 57.82 mb/d. Thedownward revision was mainly driven by expected lower OECD oil supply in 2H17. For 2018, non-OPEC oilsupply is expected to grow by 1.14 mb/d to average 58.96 mb/d. US, Brazil, Canada, Russia, Kazakhstan,Congo and the UK are expected to be the main drivers of growth, while declines are foreseen in Mexico,China, Colombia and Azerbaijan. OPEC NGLs production in 2018 is expected to grow by a higher 0.18 mb/dto average 6.49 mb/d, partly due to Equatorial Guinea joining OPEC. In June, OPEC crude production roseby 393 tb/d to average 32.61 mb/d, according to secondary sources. 

Product Markets and Refining Operations 

Refinery margins in the US declined further in June, as the US gasoline crack spread dropped despite theonset of the summer driving season. High inventory levels added to the weakness in the middle of the barrel,outpacing increases in the gasoil cracks. Meanwhile, in Europe and Asia, margins inched up on healthydemand amid additional export opportunities outpacing plentiful supply. 

Tanker Market 

Dirty tanker spot freight rates were weak in general in June. VLCC freight rates declined 6%, while the dropin Suezmax and Aframax spot rates was greater, falling by 20% each, compared to May. The decline in dirtytanker spot freight rates came on the back of growing tonnage availability, as the market was not activeenough to absorb the expansion in capacity. Similarly, clean tanker sentiment showed no improvements onaverage in June. 

Stock Movements 

Total OECD commercial oil stocks fell in May to stand at 3,015 mb. At this level, OECD commercial oilstocks are 234 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and product stocks indicate a surplus of around148 mb and 86 mb above the seasonal norm, respectively. In terms of days of forward cover, OECDcommercial stocks stood at 63.5 days in May, some 3.6 days higher than the latest five-year average. 

Balance of Supply and Demand

 Demand for OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated at 32.3 mb/d, representing an increase of 0.3 mb/d over the2016 level. In 2018, the demand for OPEC crude is projected at 32.2 mb/d, around 0.1 mb/d less than thisyear.